Modi’s Shangri-La speech offers hope for India-SL partnership in Indian Ocean governance

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivering the keynote speech at the Shangri-La dialogue on 1 June

By Prof. Sandeep Gopalan

The Indian Prime Minister delivered the much-anticipated keynote speech at the Shangri La dialogue on 1 June. Interestingly, Modi used the occasion to call for a rules-based order – recalling previous views espoused by Sri Lankan PM Ranil Wickremesinghe. 

In major policy speeches at Deakin University, Australia, in February 2017, and at the 2nd Indian Ocean Conference in Colombo in September 2017, Wickremesinghe had underlined the importance of freedom of navigation and shared enjoyment of the IO’s resources by all states.

The Shangri-La dialogue was an opportunity for Modi to outline his vision and establish a new direction for India’s foreign policy doctrine. Unfortunately, Modi largely regurgitated old dogma from India’s socialist-era foreign policy establishment and did not sketch a picture that would have provided a coherent explanation for his personality-driven foreign initiatives. Here’s why.

Modi started his address referencing the predictable claims about ancient glories and the connections between India and “Suvarnabhoomi” – a mythical El Dorado to the East. He noted:  “For over two thousand years … the force of human aspirations have built timeless links between India and this region. It was cast in peace and friendship, religion and culture, art and commerce, language and literature. These human links have lasted, even as the tides of politics and trade saw their ebb and flow.”

Unfortunately, the reality is somewhat different. India’s relationship with the SE Asian region have been weak – trade has not attained its potential and whatever links exist are due to the individual actions of enterprising Indians and largely despite the government.

Modi went on to acknowledge the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean: “It carries 90% of India’s trade and our energy sources. It is also the life line of global commerce.” Yet, investment in protecting national security and trade interests in the IO have not been commensurate.

The best part of the PM’s speech was probably his claim that India’s relationship with Japan “have been completely transformed … [to acquire] great substance and purpose that is a corner-stone of India’s Act East Policy.” 

He also recognised “a strong momentum” in the relationship with South Korea and “a fresh energy” in cooperation with Australia and New Zealand. This is not surprising – Modi’s personal initiative has revitalised ties with Japan. Similarly, his interest in the Australia partnership can transform it from the blight of petty antipathies into a highly-valuable trading opportunity.

Having hit the high note, the PM unfortunately regressed into Cold War era dogma claiming that his recent summit with Putin was due to “the need for a strong multi-polar world order for dealing with the challenges of our times”.

The US relationship was also described in anodyne terms: It “has overcome the hesitations of history and continues to deepen across the extraordinary breadth of our relationship”.

Likewise, Modi stuck to banalities in speaking about China acknowledging that it has “many layers” and that “we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border”.

What about the tensions in the IO, the Doklam stand-off, the various border skirmishes? These could have been addressed firmly as befits an emerging power.

The concluding part of the speech saw Modi alluding to the “foundations of the global order” appearing “shaken” and the world living “on the edge of uncertainty”. It was not clear if he was referring to Trump’s actions or conflicts in many parts of the world. Interestingly, he said: “We see assertion of power over re-course to international norms.” This is difficult to square with his statements about Putin, for example, because of Russian actions in Ukraine, Syria, etc.

The PM fell back to safe territory espousing the need “to evolve, through dialogue, a common rules-based order for the region” based on “sovereignty and territorial integrity… equality of all nations … based on the consent of all, not on the power of the few”. Modi urged nations which make international commitments to uphold them – perhaps a delicate reference to the Iran nuclear deal.

The only marginally-controversial comment he made was for a right to equal access of the sea and air requiring freedom of navigation and unimpeded commerce. Although not specifically mentioned, the sub-text for this statement was China’s actions in the IO and its recent confrontations with the US and Australia in the South China Sea.

Modi closed with a contradictory claim that India would work to “keep our seas, space and airways free and open; our nations secure from terrorism; and our cyber space free from disruption and conflict. We will keep our economy open and our engagement transparent.” 

Some of these claims appear to depart from reality. For instance, India is apparently maintaining its cooperation with Iran despite the termination of the JCPOA and the prospect of US sanctions. Iran is known to have conducted cyber-attacks on non-military targets in several countries. 

India’s support for Iran is simply because of its self-interest in maintaining oil supplies. Similarly, the claim about keeping “our economy open” defies reality because many sectors of the economy have barriers to external competition due to the vested interests of domestic businessmen.

To conclude, Modi has personally attempted to break the shackles of socialist-era foreign policy doctrine and fashion an independent posture for India. This keynote speech was an opportunity to provide a broader architecture for that new approach – one that transcends his personality and serves as roadmap for India’s engagement with the world as a confident emerging power that is unafraid of pursuing its self-interest within legal boundaries. 

Such an approach would require a stronger partnership with key states with common interests – Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Regrettably, Modi relied on the old establishment’s dogma instead of his own fine diplomatic instincts and did not showcase a new era.

(Dr. Sandeep Gopalan is the Pro Vice-Chancellor for Academic Innovation and Professor of Law at Deakin University. He previously was co-chairman or vice chairman of American Bar Association committees on aerospace/defence and international transactions, a member of the ABA’s Immigration Commission, and dean of law schools in Ireland and Australia. He is a licensed attorney in the United States, where he has worked as a lawyer and law professor previously.)