A tale of 8+1 elections

 The most beautiful island of its size in the world will have one more chance in 2024, either to sink further or swim – Pic by Shehan Gunasekara

In Sri Lanka, Presidential elections always have been a two-horse race. If a solid three-way race occurs, we will have a sub-50% winner, probably with a second count. That will be a socio-political calamity

The Israel-Palestine crisis has taken centre stage in global politics in the last few weeks, and the heat shows no sign of diminishing. Given the complexity of the matter, unpredictability reigns. A chaotic Middle East is fuel to the fire for the world grappling with lousy economics, climate change issues, multiple threats of war, and dwindling global trade. Irrespective of the lens you have, it’s humanly impossible to agree on any conflict which destroys human lives. 

I have pro-Palestine friends and pro-Israel friends. When you attach “pro” to any, the chances are highly remote that you see the reality of the situation. Digital media has the usual role of amplifying emotions, and the world is again shattered. Most world leaders may not understand the value of human lives, but they do understand the power of losing their positions. 

2024 will be the year of elections. Eight key polls are to be held from January to November. Taiwan, Indonesia, India, South Africa, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Russia and, most importantly, the US elections will all occur in 2024. The disturbed Middle East may not augur well for any of those elections, with the threat of high oil prices, which could jeopardise failing economies further. The finance experts predicted the rising oil prices, and the world noticed it. While some were worrying about the death of children from both sides, others were worried about their power, businesses, and stomachs. What a cruel world this is! As long as it’s not your child, the problem is not yours. 

A war enriches only a few men. The rest suffers. 

The Indian and US elections will be watched closely in Sri Lanka. Out of the eight elections, the above two will be essential to Sri Lanka’s political interests. Prime Minister Modi is the front-runner to win a third term unless the opposition coalition finds a joint candidate to defeat the common enemy. Will the Gandhi family agree to an outsider run as the Prime Minister and win with their support? The BJP’s political machinery is more robust than any other Indian political party. At least in digital media, the BJP commands a clear lead, which will help sway the public. In the US, the situation is different. The early polling is divided. It seems inevitable it will be Biden vs Trump. Can Trump triumph this time? Will some of the announced third-party candidates have an impact in key states? Ultimately, the irony is that the US public must choose between two older men. However, even a day in politics is a long time. The art of possibility, on top of the unpredictability, is the name of the game. 

President Wickremesinghe has indicated that the Presidential election in Sri Lanka will occur per the constitution as scheduled in 2024. This is best for democracy, as there were many negative rumours about the holding of elections. It would have been unwise and undemocratic to defer the election. The public must be allowed to select the leader they wish. In my column last August, I stated that no one candidate has a block vote of 25% to start the election based on digital data. However, the above was validated by multiple pollsters based on conventional polling, some publicly and some privately. Irrespective of what number comes out, it’s impossible to do accurate horse race polling to understand who wins and what percentage, especially when an election date is not on the horizon. 

If there are not at least 30% undecided voters in a polling (as of now), the accuracy must be verified. Even in December 2014, there were nearly 30% undecided voters going into the 8 January 2015 election. Sirisena won the election, clearly, based on converting undecided voters within a 40-day campaign period. Given the current political turmoil, the state of the economy and the anger in digital conversations, it would be a mighty surprise if everyone (100%) has decided who they are voting for (some polling does not add up). 

There are eight global elections. The plus 1 is the Sri Lanka election, which will significantly impact Indo-oceanic politics. China can’t lose their power. India certainly can’t allow any other to dominate. What about the US? Japan may be silent, but she is not a pushover. Thankfully, the UK is not what the UK was 

Also, who guarantees that it will be a race between Wickremesinghe, Premadasa and AKD? How about a traditional two-horse race? How about factoring an outsider? What if a Tamil candidate is put forward to break the North-East votes? Where will the estate votes be locked? Hakeem and Bathuideen are hibernating but will inevitably return to the negotiation table. Will the politically savvy Cardinal hold the Catholic block? 

Most importantly, what will be Basil Rajapaksa’s master-stroke? Will the Mahinda Rajapaksa magic still have currency, probably for the last time? Though the Rajapaksa camp may not have a 30% block vote into the Presidential election, the constituency they have cultivated since 2005 has been decisive for fate-deciding elections. The public sector of over 1.6 million are (largely) essentially Rajapaksa/Bandaranaike fans. Are they angry enough to turn their backs on incumbency? The public sector jobs handed over since 1994 are no joke. This is a loyal vote bank. Sri Lankans find loyalty in most uncommon situations. 

Since 1994, the United National Party has not had complete control over the country’s governance, and the SLPP party machinery has the financial muscle over any other party. These will be critical determinations of an important election. The essential factor for any pollster should be to understand how many SLPP voters have jumped to AKD and why. If they have moved, it cannot be simply due to the anti-corruption narrative but to anti-incumbency. 

AKD is a rising star. He does not have Rohana Wijeweera’s uncanny charisma, but he is the best JVP leader they ever had to appeal to the public sans Wijeweera. My old JVP friends are against comparing Wijeweera to others, and I understand why. AKD is a powerful orator relatable to the masses, but no Wijeweera. Can AKD pull a 50% plus one vote running on a pure NPP ticket? It’s a tough challenge, but it’s not impossible in politics. An NPP ticket without any coalition is the purest form of an AKD campaign. The above form can project their ideology to the public with ease. However, doing that may galvanise all other parties to the strongest possible candidate. Politics is first about the self-interest of the political leaders and then political parties. The enemy’s enemy is your friend. You don’t need to watch House of Cards on Netflix to understand this; reflect on the behaviour of Sri Lankan politicians over the last 30 years, and you will have an accurate answer. 

The cost of electricity is up; unemployment is on the rise. SMEs are struggling. Large corporates under stress. It is a tough job for anyone to resurrect the mess. Relief is expected on the 17 November budget, but there is a limit the Government can go to. But to win an election, you must seduce the masses; otherwise, it will be too late to the wire. President Wickremesinghe is not a mass seducer but a changed man now. His optics are different, and his speeches have an underlying storytelling form. 

Premadasa is still holding a bloc, but his camp agrees that they should have done better. In 2019, in the Presidential election, Premadasa polled an absolute majority of the minority votes, whereas Gotabaya Rajapaksa swayed the majority of the Sinhala Buddhist votes. The positioning Premadasa takes is critical. He has to feed his team that he is running to avoid defections. Politicians are a different breed; they are high-calibre salesmen with an outstanding ability to justify any action. Some don’t have shame, and people with shame don’t survive for long. 

In Sri Lanka, Presidential elections always have been a two-horse race. If a solid three-way race occurs, we will have a sub-50% winner, probably with a second count. That will be a socio-political calamity. 

There are eight global elections. The plus 1 is the Sri Lanka election, which will significantly impact Indo-oceanic politics. China can’t lose their power. India certainly can’t allow any other to dominate. What about the US? Japan may be silent, but she is not a pushover. Thankfully, the UK is not what the UK was. 

Who could manage the increasing geopolitical pressures? Is there one person all superpowers can agree to? Is there a magical formula to put Sri Lanka first so others can agree wholeheartedly? Since 1505, Sri Lanka has been under the spell of another nation. At least she had one master then, but now there are too many to count. The fate of 22 million people is in the hands of 16 million voters. The most beautiful island of its size in the world will have one more chance in 2024, either to sink further or swim. The country will get the leader it deserves.