Saturday Oct 12, 2024
Saturday Oct 12, 2024
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If President Dissanayake and the NPP can navigate this political landscape with transparency, integrity, and a commitment to justice, they may very well lead Sri Lanka into a new era of hope and progress
In Sri Lanka’s recent election, with an impressive 79% voter turnout, the people made a decisive choice by voting for a new leader. For many, this marks a long-awaited shift, reflecting a collective desire for change amid growing dissatisfaction with governance and economic struggles. This election is seen as a crucial moment in the country’s history, signalling a potential shift in political power and governance. However, it is important to recognise that real progress begins with individual transformation. Collective prosperity can only be achieved when each citizen is committed to self-improvement, positive action, and a greater understanding of the nation’s needs and possible pitfalls.
Since there is a general election planned with an 11-billion-rupee expense budget, it is important to reflect on the past and the present. Such an analysis would invariably focus more on the current president and his party, and this should not be considered unfair criticism, as exclaimed on social media. The party in power must welcome criticism, analysis, and scrutiny since the governing party is the most important party for the country. While this may be a new experience, it is important for its supporters to learn and understand that this is the process of democracy.
Comparing the 2024 election with Gotabaya’s Presidential victory
The recent election results stand in stark contrast to the 2019 Presidential race, in which Gotabaya Rajapaksa won by a significant margin, securing approximately 6.9 million votes. These were votes cast in anger, desperation, and in haste, albeit some voted for the tax cut benefits. Rajapaksa’s victory was seen as a response to national security concerns after the Easter Sunday bombings, with many Sri Lankans hoping for strong leadership to restore stability. However, Rajapaksa’s administration faced immense criticism for its handling of the economy, which led to widespread protests in 2022 and his eventual resignation.
In the 2024 Presidential election, voter sentiment shifted dramatically. The majority of votes went to the new leadership, while candidates from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)/National People’s Power (NPP) collectively garnered over 5.7 million votes. The rise in support for the JVP/NPP alliance suggests a strong undercurrent of desire for progressive reforms.
The role of the Opposition: All in one!
An important point in analysing the upcoming general election is the strategy of the opposition parties. Historically, various opposition factions have coalesced to challenge the ruling party in an attempt to secure power through unity. However, this strategy may no longer be effective. In this election, it became clear that voters resonated more with the individual policies and visions of smaller parties rather than with an amorphous, united opposition. For instance, the JVP/NPP alliance managed to draw significant attention and support due to their focus on anti-corruption, transparency, and social justice, and people detested parties with known corrupt individuals.
Moving forward, I believe that opposition parties should contest elections through their own parties rather than as a united front. This would allow for a more genuine representation of diverse political ideologies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach that could dilute key policies. In addition, running as separate parties would also enable the parties to challenge each other in healthy competition, thus ensuring that they remain accountable to voters rather than relying on alliances to stay relevant. If any party has not learned a lesson from the results of the presidential election and continues to foster bonds with corrupt individuals, that party should lose in the upcoming general elections.
In the Presidential election, the people voted for change, having experienced continuous corrupt collaborations with false promises. The people will vote while keeping up the same trend at the general elections. Therefore, it is important that the JVP/NPP gets a majority and becomes the ruling party because then they can implement all that they have promised. Nevertheless, providing any party with a two-thirds majority is a very risky move, and the people of Sri Lanka must weigh all possible consequences. Simply put, nobody should have absolute power.
Challenges facing the JVP/NPP in Government
The JVP/NPP has long been in opposition, often critiquing previous Governments for their handling of the economy, corruption, and nepotism. For instance, the JVP vehemently and correctly opposed several major governmental laws, including the controversial 20th Amendment, which expanded presidential powers, and various budget proposals that favoured corporate interests over public welfare. As a result, many see the JVP/NPP’s growing popularity as a response to widespread dissatisfaction with the political establishment. Therefore, with a majority of seats in the parliament, the JVP/NPP can convince the others in the parliament to vote with them to gain a two-thirds majority for important constitutional changes.
Now that the JVP/NPP has gained significant political power, the focus shifts from criticism to governance. They will need to prove to the electorate that they can deliver on their promises. The anticipation surrounding their leadership is heightened by public expectations for reforms, especially regarding corruption. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader of the JVP/NPP, has famously displayed files of alleged corruption and malpractice by previous administrations. There is great interest in seeing whether these accusations lead to real accountability and justice. Also, for President Dissanayake, this is the best time to begin initial legal actions against those individuals of whom he claims to have evidence of corruption, malpractice, and other illegal activities.
Critics argue that without waiting for a general election, the JVP/NPP could begin implementing reforms, using these actions to solidify their support for the next election. By demonstrating transparency and efficiency now, they could reassure the public of their commitment to their promises. While this might eliminate political opposition, as previous Governments have done, it would serve the public interest by clearly distinguishing corrupt individuals from honest public servants.
Nagananda Kodituwakku’s exposé on the misuse of duty-free vehicle permits may serve as the starting point for the JVP/NPP’s fight against corruption, showcasing their seriousness about accountability. However, it is essential to present clear, provable evidence in cases of corruption, as Kodituwakku has done.
It’s also important for the public to recognise that some campaign promises, such as removing pensions and benefits for former presidents and ministers, may not be feasible under current laws. Overturning such benefits would require significant legal reforms. In my opinion, while pensions should remain as a basic entitlement, extravagant benefits such as housing allowances should be eliminated. Ministers should also be provided with a higher salary to discourage them from seeking other forms of income while in office. The voters also should avoid appointing corrupt individuals and look for some form of educational standard in these individuals.
Parties that promised these changes should be questioned about whether these were made without actually looking into the possibilities or merely as promises to fulfil after the general elections. Therefore, it is important that the JVP/NPP begins rustling through the files instead of waiting for general elections. While some fervent supporters may resist this suggestion, they should view it as an opportunity to prove how the JVP/NPP stands apart from other parties. President Dissanayake appears determined to lead with integrity, but it is essential for him to distance himself from the legacy of Rohana Wijeweera. Dissanayake’s peaceful democratic rise to power contrasts with Wijeweera’s attempts to power. I believe Dissanayake can be a visionary leader in his own right, rather than a successor to Wijeweera’s shadow.
Dissanayake has shown the non-violent path to power, appointed a female prime minister, showed through his actions how someone who came to power through people’s vote should act and gain respect, and is in the process of doing his best to keep up with his promises. Dissanayake’s attempt to renegotiate IMF terms is a noble approach, and he should, as the new President of Sri Lanka, explore all the possibilities. Failing to change the terms too should not be looked upon as a failure on his part, since once the country is trapped in a situation like this, there are only limited possibilities to get out of it.
The importance of transparency and acknowledgment
For political leaders to move forward, transparency is crucial. They must address any past misconduct or questionable family ties with honesty and, where necessary, offer sincere apologies to regain public trust. Misappropriated funds should be returned, and those guilty of corruption should face imprisonment if legally permissible. History provides a clear example: J.R. Jayewardene, after his election victory, followed through on his promises to hold corrupt politicians accountable. He imprisoned Srimavo Bandaranaike and Felix Dias Bandaranaike, disenfranchising them for their roles in mismanagement and corruption. This was a bold move, aimed at demonstrating that no one was above the law. Similarly, J.R., who received a two-thirds majority, introduced the Executive Presidency.
The threat of authoritarianism: Lessons from abroad
One of the main fears surrounding the current political landscape in Sri Lanka is the potential for the country to slide toward authoritarianism. After securing a majority (maybe a two-thirds), a ruling party may be tempted to postpone elections, stack the judiciary with loyalists, and gradually erode democratic institutions. This pattern has been seen in other countries.
Throughout history, several Marxist movements have risen to power in countries experiencing political and social oppression. In many cases, these movements initially promised liberation and justice, but over time, the regimes that emerged turned into authoritarian or dictatorial systems. Below are notable examples of Marxist regimes that transitioned into dictatorship after coming to power:
Leader: Vladimir Lenin (initially), followed by Joseph Stalin
Context: The Russian Revolution in 1917 brought the Bolshevik Party, a Marxist faction led by Lenin, to power. Russia had been suffering from extreme poverty, political repression under the Tsar, and the chaos of World War I. The Bolsheviks promised land, peace, and bread. However, under Stalin’s leadership, the Soviet Union became a totalitarian state marked by mass repression, purges, and the Great Terror.
Leader: Mao Zedong
Context: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) emerged victorious in the Chinese Civil War, promising to end feudalism and imperialism. Under Mao’s rule, the country underwent significant social and economic transformations, but his leadership also led to widespread famine and the Cultural Revolution, during which millions were persecuted.
Leader: Fidel Castro
Context: Castro’s revolution overthrew the Batista regime, which was seen as corrupt and oppressive. Initially, the revolution was popular, promising social reforms and national sovereignty. However, over time, the Castro government restricted political freedoms, imprisoned dissenters, and solidified its power through repression.
Leader: Hugo Chávez (initially), followed by Nicolás Maduro
Context: Chávez was elected on a platform of socialism and populism, promising to reduce inequality and empower the poor. Over time, his government cracked down on opposition, curtailed press freedoms, and eventually led Venezuela into a humanitarian crisis under Maduro.
These examples highlight how revolutionary movements can sometimes morph into authoritarian regimes, often betraying the very principles that motivated their rise.
It is vital for Sri Lankans to remain vigilant and actively participate in the political process to ensure that their newly elected leaders uphold democratic values and remain accountable to the people. If President Dissanayake and the NPP can navigate this political landscape with transparency, integrity, and a commitment to justice, they may very well lead Sri Lanka into a new era of hope and progress. Otherwise, they may risk following the path of other movements that promised change but ultimately succumbed to the allure of power.
Finally,
In conclusion, Sri Lanka stands at a crossroads, with its citizens demanding accountability, transparency, and genuine reform. The outcome of the 2024 election could reshape the nation’s political landscape and determine its trajectory for years to come. It is essential for voters to remain engaged, critically evaluate their leaders, and push for a government that prioritises the people’s needs over personal interests. Though the journey to a more just and equitable society will be challenging, collective efforts will play a pivotal role in driving this change.
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(The writer holds a PhD, FRSA; is President – Virginia Research Institute, USA, President – Tennessee Association of Science Department Chairs, and Fulbright Specialist – USA.)
