Brain drain: Popular rumour or fact?

Exploring Sri Lanka’s migratory trends

Context of the study

• Sri Lanka’s migration stood at an all-time high in 2022. Several waves of migration have been noted in the past, yet available and accessible data, point towards 2022 as the highest level of migration witnessed by Sri Lanka. While unofficially, the peak of outbound migration is considered to have occurred during the war, the documents available on migration for employment do not reflect such data due to the circumstances of that migratory wave.
• While the number recorded in 2022 is alarming, similar peaks in migration have been observed previously, creating difficulty in attributing the rise simply to the recent economic crisis as discussed on popular media.
• The crisis could have incentivised many to leave the nation earlier than expected. But more skilled individuals were progressively leaving the country or in the process of making that decision in search of better living conditions even before the crisis.
• However, since this study is limited to the data available, this does not reflect if more opted to resort to the pathway of student visas to exit the country faster. It’s also possible that students had to postpone their study plans during the pandemic which might explain why more left to pursue studies abroad in 2022 as well.
• In this report, we have taken a closer look at categorical level migration related data, in the hope of understanding the causes behind such an increase and if there has been a change in the composition of the types of labour which are exiting the country to understand trends related to brain drain and overall features of Sri Lanka’s outbound migrants.

Key takeaways

• Numbers, especially when it comes to migration do not provide a comprehensive picture given the varied pathways individuals choose to leave the island nation. However, considering the unprecedented circumstances the pandemic created for not only Sri Lanka, but the world, data does provide an indication that this level of brain drain is a reflection of an increasing number of educated and skilled labour leaving the country for greener pastures over the years and may not be directly attributable to the recent economic crisis only.
• Historically, domestic housekeeping took up the mammoth share of outbound migration but there has been a declining trend on the number of women going abroad for domestic care work related jobs. These seem to have been substituted to a certain extent by more women taking up low skilled work, while the number of males going abroad for skilled and low skilled work have been on an upward trajectory.
• Accordingly, skilled and low-skilled work components have trumped domestic housekeeping taking up the largest slices of the migration pie indicating a gradual increasing trend in Sri Lanka’s skilled labour departing.
• Many migrants are also young men below their 30s, while female migrants who are largely migrating as domestic housekeepers are mostly in their 40s. This indicates a growing trend of youth brain drain.

Business as usual for migration

When the COVID-19 pandemic brought the entire globe to a standstill, Sri Lanka’s labour migration followed suit, hitting its all-time low since 1994 and standing at a mere 53,711 in 2020. In 2021, when both domestic and international mobility restrictions were alleviated, labour migration appeared to be returning to normalcy, inching closer to the pre-pandemic annual average of 245,000 (annual average calculated from 2005-2019).

In 2022, 311,056 citizens migrated for employment after a dramatic reduction for two years, reaching an all-time high going above the annual average indicated earlier. However, this recovery can be considered systematic post the pandemic given the processes which were on hold and those who could not make it out of the country during those trying years.

Domestic housekeeping no longer dominates labour migration in Sri Lanka

In the 1990s, domestic housekeepers made up nearly three fourths of total labour migrants. Latest data suggests that migration for domestic housekeeping has not seen a significant increase post pandemic and cannot be considered a significant contributor to the high levels of labour migration seen in 2022. In fact, the composition of those migrating to be employed as domestic housekeepers has systematically contracted over the years. At present, this figure has contracted to a mere one fourth (25% in 2022).

This trend also explains the shift in the gender composition of Sri Lanka’s migrant workers. In 1995, 66% of those that were migrating for employment were for domestic housekeeping positions. In the same year 73% of total labour migrants were females. The contraction in the domestic housekeeping component evident at present is reflected in the gender composition that appears to have balanced out over the years. In 2022, 60% of total labour migrants were males. While over 75% of females that migrate for employment are still engaged in the domestic housekeeping sector, this proportion also shows a decreasing trend.

Migration of skilled and low-skilled labourers have risen systematically over the years

Trends seen in migration of skilled and low-skilled labourers suggest that each has grown approximately 4% to 5% respectively on an annual basis from 1995. While the numbers have been increasing over time in absolute terms, so has the percentage contribution from both segments in terms of total labour migration composition. Over time, low skilled labour migration has grown to the highest ever witnessed in 2022 at 33.9% while skilled labour stood at the second highest at 29.9%.

It must be noted that this growth in composition was gradual and systematic. In terms of skilled labour migration, between 1995 and 2002, its composition varied between 15-20%, gradually reaching 25% by 2010. This number then expanded to 30% in 2015 and ranged around 29-33% since.

Composition of low skilled migration followed a similar trend. It ranged between 13-20% in the decade from 1995 to 2005 and gradually rose to surpass the 25% threshold by 2015. Since then, it has largely varied between 25-29%, reaching over 30% in 2022.

More women are taking up low-skilled jobs

From a gender perspective, a vast majority of labourers migrating for skilled labour are males. Since 1995 up to 2022, out of all male migrants more than 40% has left for skilled labour every single year. Conversely, out of female labour migrants, those employed for skilled labour has remained below 10% almost always during the same period. Nearly 70% of all female migrants have been leaving for domestic housekeeping jobs since 1995. 2022 was the only exception where this number dropped to around 60%. However, in the same year the composition of females leaving for low-skilled positions saw a noteworthy upsurge, rising to 30% whereas this figure has remained close to 15% historically.

A quick look at major Labour Migration Patterns of 2022

Low-skilled, skilled and domestic housekeeping take up bigger slices and gender disparity prevails albeit lesser

• Most labour migrants were employed in the low-skilled, skilled and domestic housekeeping sectors.
• Professional, skilled and clerical and related employment were dominated by male migrants while more female migrants sought employment in low skilled, semi-skilled and middle-level jobs.
• The second largest group of migrants comprised of females who left for domestic house-keeping jobs, while historically this was usually the largest group.
• Most males who departed for foreign employment were between the ages of 25–29 while most females were between 40 and 44.

Geographically, migration isn’t limited to big city districts

• Geographical distribution of labour migrants could also indicate geographical disparity in the kind of employment they sought and how dire the conditions they left behind. Most labour migrants were from the Colombo district while Gampaha and Kandy districts stood second and third respectively. Kurunegala, Batticaloa and Ampara also saw over 20,000 of its residents migrating for labour.
• Within most of these districts, a major proportion of those who migrated were males who left for skilled employment, while majority of those who left for professional employment were males from Colombo, Gampaha and Kandy.

Conclusion

The above data analysis shows that Sri Lanka has been showing increasing signs of brain drain over time, even though it’s felt more than ever at present.

The Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment Act No. 21 of 1985 states providing employment opportunities for Sri Lankans abroad as one of its objectives and it still advertises on its website related notices. While this might have been a requirement in the past, revisiting the role played by Government agencies, identifying necessary skills required to sustain the standard of living of the citizens, equipping individuals with the right skill set and creating conditions to retain such talent are a couple of policy decisions which need to be revisited in the light of brain drain gaining momentum in the public agenda.

(Niroshi Perera is the Head of Applied Research at Frontier Research, leading the inequality research arm, helping raise awareness on a variety of thematic issues. She was a Chevening Scholar and holds an MSc in Poverty, Inequality and Development from the University of Birmingham, UK. Her research interests are the care economy, and consumption and class inequality.)

(Akna Tennakoon is a research associate at Frontier Research, working predominantly on our sector and policy research reports. She is a graduate of the University of Colombo, and received the award for the Most Outstanding Research Paper under the theme “Role of Economic Policies during the Crisis” at the 18th South Asian Economics Students’ Meet (SAESM) for her thesis titled “Impact of Long-Term IMF Lending Facilities on Economic Growth of South Asian Countries”.)