Monkey matters: Legend of a crisis foretold

Will the Government achieve its tax revenue, when people who are already in poverty stop purchasing the goods and services because they’ve become unaffordable?

As the experts point out, with 60% of Government revenue being consumed by interest payment, this is one of the highest interest paying countries in the world. Was that not clear to them when they signed on the dotted line with the bond-holders, agreeing to pay out ridiculous rates of interest to them? Perhaps not, with a representative of the local bond-holders sitting in on the negotiations on the Government’s side. A wise monkey with his eyes and ears closed would have known this was the wrong way to go. Ah, but why worry, when the Government can cut interest on the largest pension fund in the country, the working people’s only hope for a decent retirement, managed by the Central Bank?

In ancient legends which teach valuable lessons, there are wise monkeys and there are drunken monkeys. There is even a Monkey King. Since this Government unwisely scapegoated a monkey in a cover up which was globally reported, local opinions abound as to its collective similarity to the unfairly accused. Wise, drunken, or with superpowers like the Monkey King? 

The 2025 Budget which was just presented, according to some economic experts who commented on it privately, say that the Government’s revenue targets are way overestimated, and that rather than closing the fiscal deficit, it will inevitably widen it, given the policy choices contained in the Budget. If they are to be believed, it looks like it was indeed written by a Monkey King who believed it had super powers, and plans to bridge the gap that way. Recall how an ordinary run-of-the mill monkey brought down the entire grid. 

Independent economic experts say that the IMF’s $ 600 million disbursements which the Government has fed in to its calculations, are conditional on achieving a 2.3% primary surplus, which they say is unrealistic. Not for a Monkey King with super powers of course, but for the NPP, it might be a reach to achieve the $ 18 billion predicted which requires a 9% growth in exports.  

The tax regime the NPP Government has introduced will impact the most vulnerable, with an increase in taxes of goods and services by 35%-40%. 

As the Leader of the Opposition said in his intervention on the Budget debate, 70% of this country is in poverty. He accused the Government of not taking into account any realistic figures on the crisis that a vast majority of people are facing, and urged them to immediately formulate a definition of poverty, recognise those that come within it, and to exercise its responsibility to formulate programs that will reduce the burden of poverty in the country. 

It is to this population that the gift of increased indirect taxes has been presented in the Budget. Will the Government achieve its tax revenue, when people who are already in poverty stop purchasing the goods and services because they’ve become unaffordable? 

On top of that, the withholding tax on savings has been doubled. While the tax is deducted at source, there is yet no mechanism of tax refunds for overpaid tax by the Inland Revenue. The Government airily says people have the option of filing their tax return requesting the refund, even though historically, there is no evidence it will ever be paid. They have not yet said when such a system will operate efficiently. 

Rather than go after the big businesses that have evaded paying taxes for years, they have rushed to double the tax of those who have saved for a rainy day, without the necessary infrastructure to ensure they aren’t being unfairly overtaxed. This is clearly Drunken Monkey territory. 

As the experts point out, with 60% of Government revenue being consumed by interest payment, this is one of the highest interest paying countries in the world. Was that not clear to them when they signed on the dotted line with the bond-holders, agreeing to pay out ridiculous rates of interest to them? Perhaps not, with a representative of the local bond-holders sitting in on the negotiations on the Government’s side. A wise monkey with his eyes and ears closed would have known this was the wrong way to go. Ah, but why worry, when the Government can cut interest on the largest pension fund in the country, the working people’s only hope for a decent retirement, managed by the Central Bank? They can also tax the vulnerable to kingdom come in order to achieve the tax revenue imposed by the IMF, never mind the election promises.

Was this the only way? The wise monkey would say, absolutely not. There was every opportunity to negotiate a better deal with the bond-holders. Other countries have done so. The experts say that total debt servicing costs will reach $ 3 billion in 2025, which they are sceptical that the Government will be able to manage. The Government is likely to dream up ways and means of further burdening the citizens of this country to bear the cost of their disinclination to stand up to the creditors and work out a better deal like Ghana did. Ghana was in negotiations around the same time. 

We are assured by the financial bureaucracy and the NPP Government that this was the best deal Sri Lanka could have got. Tell that to the monkeys. They will bring down the entire grid in disgust. In pure Drunken Monkey style, we are also told that debt repayments will start in 2028, when in 2025, this year, Sri Lanka is due to pay $ 3 billion. 

One can be like the wise monkey who closed his eyes so he can see no evil debt payment until 2028, but cold reality of the actual interest payments in 2025 is now common knowledge, however many times those in power, inexplicably repeat otherwise. 

Crime and punishment

Enter another zoological specimen, right on cue, a donkey (“booruwa”). For a Government feasting on hubris about their national security expertise, the daring shooting of a witness testifying before a judge, in a courtroom, with the STF outside, must surely have come as a shock. The deputy minister hurried in its wake to take a closer look, apparently riding on a donkey in his haste. The donkey went missing when the minister wanted to make a hasty getaway from the media, plying him with uncomfortable questions, and was heard abusing the animal on the phone, in an attempt to locate his whereabouts. The matter was brought up in parliament during the budget debate. Animal cruelty is not easily tolerated, and rightly so.

The spate of underworld shootings has dominated the evening news for weeks, with two innocent children dying in one, just the other day. MPs warned that much sought after foreign investment will not come to this country with a reputation for random violence where no space is sacred. Lawyers have demanded security, MPs warn the Government that they must take responsibility of any of them are harmed, justifying their fear on the basis of the JVP’s violent past, for which they have not expressed regret, even after entering mainstream politics. This they reckon, is indicative of their possible resort to it to achieve their collective aims or even that they may not find violence visited on innocents a huge problem. They urged the Government to take this very seriously and to put an end to it. To actually be seen to do so will require the deputy minister to change his mode of transport and stick to a car like a normal person, with a competent driver who is human.

We citizens can only hope that our leaders are more like the beloved Monkey King Sun Wukong in the story ‘Journey to the West’ based on the well-known Chinese legend, who accompanied the monk Tang Sanzang on his way to India to bring back the holy texts on Buddhism from India, and proved himself a great bodyguard. However he is also known as a trickster, and one who was seeking immortality. He was also full of himself, declaring himself equal to the Jade Emperor, and was incarcerated for 500 years by the Jade King, until the monk found him. 

As we await the debt crisis to oppress the ordinary folk even more, we hope the Government will be inspired by the better side of Sun Wukong, find the courage to come up with solutions other than to burden the people, and be seen never to seek political immortality. Scheduling elections on time would be a leap in the right direction.