Russia’s aggression on Ukraine: Historical perspective

Introduction

Several news reports, since the commencement of aggression on Ukraine have highlighted various aspects of the current conflict detailing from different angles; however, by looking at bits and pieces of news items, it is a difficult task to assemble, contemplate and comprehend what is happening and the root cause and the trigger for this devastation. 

The continuous bombardment of Russians has created an immediate need to evacuate the civilians, who are in the middle of crossfire and to stop daily increase in casualties. Nonetheless this situation created a war solely between Ukraine and Russia, this is only one dimension to the problem but the major cause was to gain supremacy over the other by two major warring factions, USA and Russia. This article intends to highlight critical areas of interests both past and present.  

History

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics constituted 15 states/republics including the present Russia and existed in form of federal union nearly six decades between 1922 and 1991 under the USSR banner. The collapse of USSR came primarily as a result of the backdrop of Warsaw countries rejecting Marxism and Leninism and attempts of then leader of USSR to formulate liberalised policies reversing economic stagnation but retaining Communist Party flagship. The liberalisation was to create a path for opportunities and growth thus open trading with the rest of the world. Preservation attempt of the Communist Party had not been successful and thereby Russia and Ukraine declared their independence. In the midst of these changes, the rest of the republics emerged from the dissolution of Soviet Union and became independent post-Soviet states. 

Following up with the dissolution of USSR and republics becoming independent, member republics have either formed or opted to join various organisations and treaties for their wellbeing, primarily to improve trading, enhance security and protection. Some republics did not continue the membership on permanent basis but moved in and out as per the individual political, economic aspiration and possibly due to external influences prevailed at that era. A noted development occurred in 2015 where Ukraine provisionally applied for Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with European Union (DCFTA) despite having membership with CISFTA. Russia suspended Ukraine from CISFTA with effect from 1 January 2016 which was supposed to have conflict to CISFTA constitution. The behaviour of Ukraine over the years since the dissolution of USSR was observed as erratic compared to other independent republics which warranted close scrutiny of Russia.

Those organisations were:

Collective Security Treaty Organization – CSTO charter reaffirms the desire of all participating states to abstain from the use or threat of force. Signatories would not be able to join other military alliances such as NATO. 

Organization for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM, consultative forum for cooperation between its members

Commonwealth of Independent States Free Trade Area – CISFTA, for free trade between the member countries

Baltic Assembly – BA, a regional organisation that promotes inter-governmental cooperation 

North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO was founded in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The Alliance’s creation was part of a broader effort and strategic move to serve: deterring Soviet expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and encouraging European political integration.

Influence 

and envisaged threats 

US has always seen USSR and presently Russia as an ongoing threat for democracy, free and open economy, and militarily. On the contrary, Russia has also seen NATO led by US poses a mounting threat and also supporting and aiding the former Soviet Republics in many fronts. The current crisis and aggression on Ukraine, as surfaced to be, is a culmination of moves and counter moves of both Russia and US. It is rather unclear as to why Ukraine was targeted when the core issues are between super powers. As a case study, it is worth to highlight building a dam by Ukrainians across the channel which runs between northern to east of Crimea supplying water to Crimea peninsula. This act was a retaliation of Ukraine subsequent to Russia invading Crimea which was a part of Ukraine and thereof annexation. The channel was built in 1970s by USSR providing drinking water for 85% of Crimean population and over 90% for irrigation. 

Furthermore, Russia was troubled with the growing allegiance of Ukrainian to West and US. Nevertheless, the requests from Ukraine and Georgia for admission to NATO is in limbo as a result of 30 member states failed to come to general consensus. One of the key requirements considered for admission to NATO was to defend its members from any aggression by any foreign states or power. 

Moves and counter moves

US involvement to bring former Soviet Republics to NATO alliance inculcating the hearts and minds of citizens, a culture inclined to Western style of democracy and liberalisation has been perceived as working against the values of former Soviet republics. If such advocacy as a result of exploitations or undue influences exercised by the West over the aspiration of the public need to be understood to determine the exact cause of the current conflicts and the targeted attacks. 

Russia’s annexation of Crimean Peninsula in March 2014 from Ukraine on premise to ensure proper conditions for the people of Crimea and to be able to freely express their will. Ukraine and other allied nations argued that such intervention is a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and contravene to international law.   

To permanently fix the water crisis of Crimea, Russian destroyed the dam built across the channel in February 2022, the alternate schemes deployed hitherto by Russia since 2014 were unsuccessful and did not bring a tangible solution to the ongoing water crisis of Crimea. 

Russian hackers attacked and shutdown Colonial Pipeline for ransom and US to declare state of emergency. The pipeline originates in Houston Texas and carries gasoline and jet fuel to the southern state of US. The ransom amount paid was $ 4.4 million. Although it appears to be no direct involvement of Russian government, such action goads and leads to retaliations. 

Building pipelines through Baltic Sea, Nord Stream 1 (NS-1) and Nord Stream 2 (NS-2) for efficient transportation of gas and oil at a cheaper rate to Germany. This has been seen as a threat to US as the Western world become increasingly dependent on Russia and losing the monopoly of Petro-dollar. The NS-2 double the capacity of NS-1 and also cut the operating cost of the pipeline(s) which transit through Ukraine, which result Ukraine losing several billion dollars on yearly basis if, the NS-2 becomes operational. The opposition from Ukraine and Poland to NS-2 created division among the European allies and political infighting within Germany where NS-2 is primarily targeted for. 

Benefitting from the failed attempt of a US republican senator to pass sanction on NS-2, US has given the green light for NS-2 to be operational subjected to no military action against Ukraine by Russia. This is one of the strongest remaining levers pulled by US and the West have to influence and stop military attacks. Majority Germans supported and demanded for affordable, cost effective and reliable supply of gas and oil from Russia which opens with NS-2. It was also said the US doesn’t want to damage the US-German relationship and antagonise Russia.

Human catastrophe

Humanitarian issues are arising from the continuous attacks on civilian targets as reported in various news media resulting in casualties and disintegration of families. It has also been reported that hospitals, childcare centres and maternity wards were recently attacked indiscriminately. Humanitarian aid is an urgent and timely need to save lives, also noted that several governments and agencies sending humanitarian aid to affected areas of Ukraine. The super powers should need to focus on saving innocent lives rather than achieving their cheap strategic goals. It has been said that the refugees of non-white background are being blocked at the entrance to Poland and also Ukrainian Border Force preventing leaving Ukraine despite of the appeals from Human Rights organisations and religious groups. 

US president’s lukewarm action, backward step and lacking to provide leadership have been blamed for Russia’s advancement in the warfront thus causing human casualties. One of the analysts, quoting a comment of a former US Defence high ranking officer; ranked the current president as the weakest among the past four US Presidents.

wwConclusion

The centric strategy of Western Europe and US was to isolate Russia and create barriers of preventing the infiltration of Communist ideology and military penetration. NATO is the key machinery monitor and discharges preventive action in terms of imposing sanction limiting trade and investment in Russia and China thus to firmly align with US and European economic aspirations. This unsurprisingly angers both regimes and tends to work against finding alternate avenues. These measures have negatively affected foregoing benefits to access cheap gas from Russia and products of China and simultaneously incurring heavy cost on building arms and military strength for protecting NATO and allies. 

Russia has also seen US and NATO allies continually strengthening and advancing the military strength in the Russian borders, recently planting missiles in Ukraine targeting towards Russia signalling a brink of an arms attack. Furthermore, NATO backed by US seeking unreserved allegiance of the former Soviet Republics promising support in terms of protecting sovereignty and borders and distance from Russia and China. 

Considering the aforementioned facts, it is evident that the attack on Ukraine is symbolic of a major conflict and turnout be a warfare between Russia and the US backed Western world. It is to be noted that in the past US had violated their own advocacy invading Iraq on a false pretence and without UN sanctions and sanctions on Iran to stop trading with Russia. It seems unfair to blame Russia for their unilateral attacks discharged on Ukraine comparing the behaviours of the two. 

It was also evident from the recent activities witnessed a fragmented world, Asia and Africa have taken a neutral stand and least spoken. The recently upgraded relationship between China and Russia under “Friendship with no limits” declared at the Beijing Olympics sends warning signals to US and West. Nonetheless, US President has taken an unprecedented stand, on Russia and China, amidst the escalation of conflict will likely lead cascading attacks elsewhere. The recent missile launch by Iran on the US embassy in Iraq provides escalation of such isolated and sporadic attacks. Despite verbal support, it was criticised that US president did not provide the necessary military support to defend Ukraine and to stop the ratcheting up aggression by Putin. 

On another note, there are many unresolved disputes for sustaining democratic principles among the US and Western allies and it is worthwhile to address them without goading and fuelling warring factions.

Daily, news agencies report the growing number of civilian casualties and the desperate need to evacuate and provide assistance as a matter of urgency. The fair minded international agencies should gear up these activities rather than reporting the casualties on daily basis. It is time for all nonaligned states to urge Russia and Ukraine to immediately declare ceasefire and work out a negotiated settlement to save lives and property. 

World is on alert and watching the next move of China on Taiwan in the wake of tepid actions of US, will US abandon Ukraine as they did for Afghanistan?

Finally, the net effect of Sri Lanka will be rising cost of fuel and reduction of export income from tea to Russia, Ukraine and other republics in consequence to trade sanctions on Russia. However, this will be a short term effect; in the long term it is desirable to attract high paying tourists from Europe as opposed to low paying Ukrainians and Russia to revive the tourism sector. 

With the new US administration will there be peace in the region? Needs compromises. 

Revenge should be overcome by forgiveness and hatred by love! The world lacks these values and is heading for fragmentation.

Citations:

[1] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_139339.htm

[2] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/nato

[3] https://www.eurasiareview.com/16022022-the-crisis-in-ukraine-is-not-about-ukraine-its-about-germany-oped/

[4] https://www.unz.com/mhudson/americas-real-adversaries-are-its-european-and-other-allies/

[5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/25/ukraine-russia-what-is-nord-steam-2-and-why-is-it-contentious