Saturday Dec 28, 2024
Saturday Dec 28, 2024
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A vision to develop Sri Lanka’s railway infrastructure is the need of the hour even now, over four years after the island nation arbitrarily terminated a project that would meet its creaking infrastructural needs at concessionary terms from a friendly nation’s government
The project that was due to commence with land acquisition in 2020 and be concluded in 2024 with an LRT that would have trains running along an elevated track at four-minute intervals during rush hour and 10-minute intervals at off-peak times ended in ignominy for the Sri Lankan Government when the project was arbitrarily terminated by the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration citing the ongoing economic crisis at the time
The railway community in Sri Lanka and all national-minded islanders commemorate 27 December as the day on which the inaugural Ceylon Government Railway (CGR) train ran between Colombo Fort and Ambepussa (34 miles on the main line) in 1864.
One day prior to it, the same folks remember with pain and anguish the devastating effect of the 2004 tsunami which destroyed a 1,500 passenger train at Peraliya on 26 December, taking over 1,000 lives in an island-wide cataclysm that resulted in 30,000 deaths.
But Sri Lanka Railways endeavoured to restore the stricken locomotive – a Class M2a EMD-G12 (‘Manitoba’), imported under the Colombo Plan in 1956 – and a few years later, it makes a regular run on ‘D-Day’ every year, heading the now-iconic Train No. 8051 (‘51).
And in a trifecta of rail happenings, this December’s media has been rife with reports of how the Government of Sri Lanka is in talks with its counterparts in Japan to get back on track the much vaunted Light Rail Transit (LRT) project that was arbitrarily derailed by the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration in 2021.
Then Sri Lanka’s so-called “LRT fiasco” and the international fallout from a former regime’s ad-hoc policy decision is much in the news these days... for the right reasons, for a change.
So much so that the case study of an arbitrary cancellation of the Japan-funded Light Rail Transit project in the context of international relations in an emerging geopolitical milieu may make interesting reading for all of SLR’s swains and stakeholders in good governance being restored.
Ergo, this two-part piece on Sri Lanka’s ill-fated LRT project, on which fortune and the Government of Japan seem to be smiling again.
[CONTINUED FROM A PREVIOUS ISSUE]
Green signals ahead
Two further items in the same news report also signal salutary indications for Sri Lanka in general and the LRT project in particular.
First, as regards the partnership of Japan, which was the original donor nation associated with the LRT project, and its ongoing support: “The President also conveyed appreciation for continued support provided by the Government of Japan and JICA.” (Colombo Gazette)
Second, as regards the all-important factor of funding on the same or similar concessionary basis as below for the resumption and completion of at least the first planned phase of the pilot project of the LRT involving Line 1 and Line 4 in the road map: “Dr Tanaka Akihiko, the President of Japan International Cooperation Agency, called on President Wickremesinghe in Colombo. … Dr. Akihiko elaborated on JICA’s efforts, highlighting the priority of concluding debt restructuring while also aiming for the resumption of stalled projects” (emphasis added).
The sustainable role played by JICA is much in evidence in the Japanese agency’s rationalisation of the LRT project in its analyses and assessments of the scope of the work. JICA has long since affirmed on its website that “the project falls into the railways sector under the JICA guidelines for environmental and social considerations” per its mandate as of long ago as April 2010 (Japan International Cooperation Agency, ‘Project for Establishment of New Light Rail Transit System in Colombo’).
JICA in its project outline affirms and undergirds the value of the LRT’s contribution to Sri Lanka’s national developmental agenda: “The objectives of the project are to alleviate traffic congestion, provide better connectivity and mitigate air pollution in the Western Region by constructing [a] mass rapid transit system, thereby contributing to the economic and social development of the Western Region and improvement of [the] urban environment” (JICA).
And the same portal, by dint of its publication of ‘past’ and ‘latest’ monitoring reports spanning May, September and December 2019, not only indicates its commitment to the project but the ongoing interest shown and acted upon by JICA until the abrupt unilateral termination of the project by the Government of Sri Lanka under the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in September 2021.
The ramifications of such an arbitrary action, although ostensibly taken at the behest of a single individual at the uppermost echelon of executive power, had consequences that affected not only personal relationships but also impacted on Sri Lanka at the sovereign state level. As an Echelon Media Company report commented editorially:
“Sri Lanka is in the process to mend severed ties with Japan after the island nation unilaterally cancelled a 1.5 billion US Dollar Light Rail Transit (LRT) and East Container Terminal (ECT) projects as the crisis-hit South Asian nation is seeking international help to come out of its economic down turn amid a political crisis. Higher government officials and ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) members have told Economy Next that most foreign countries were unwilling to help Sri Lanka unlike in the past because of some harsh ‘undiplomatic’ experiences. A former SLPP cabinet minister has said some countries have indirectly told the government that they would not help until [what was meant is ‘as long as’] President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his family members are in power” (EconomyNext, ‘Crisis-hit Sri Lanka in process to mend Japanese ties after cancelling LRT, ECT projects’, 16 June 2022).
Weak ties and sleepers
The cancellation of the LRT project in particular hamstrung Sri Lanka’s longstanding relationship with Japan, according to the then Deputy Foreign Minister Prof. G.L. Pieris, who affirmed that “the relationship with Japan is vital for Sri Lanka” (Economy Next), who also noted that the Japanese contribution to the island nation spanned decades – ever since the South Asian nation stood up for the defeated World War II country at the San Francisco Conference in 1945, after the conclusion of hostilities – and included substantial aid, loans, technological assistance and support for numerous projects spanning the gamut from the Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation (SLRC) and the Sri Jayewardenepura Hospital (SJH) to sundry helps in terms of skills development, computer technology, construction industry initiatives, and medical and pharmaceutical items, in a milieu where Japan was allied to the US’ post-Cold War interests.
In addition, the souring of relations between the two sovereign nations, which were celebrating their 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations at the time (2022), would come with attendant opportunity costs as “Sri Lanka wished to expand cooperation with Japan in the areas of digitalisation, carbon credit, and ocean-related activities including coast conservation, fisheries and global warming”, according to the Deputy Foreign Minister, who added: “Reference was also made to exploring cooperation in areas coming under the purview of the World Trade Organization.” Unsaid was the steps away from Chinese debt-trap diplomacy these would take, where previously the People’s Republic had wrested control of Hambantota Port from Sri Lanka.
These costs and opportunity costs could be construed as not only a severe setback for international relations between the two previously harmoniously allied nation states but also an impediment to aid for Sri Lanka as “Japan has been the top lender for Sri Lanka under its concessionary funding and has poured billions of yens (sic) into Sri Lanka’s main Colombo port and many other infrastructure projects”, in addition to the fact that “Japan played a key role when Sri Lanka faced an economic collapse in 2001.”
Further underlining the severity of the impact that the LRT project cancellation had was the recollection in 2022 that in 2003, Japan “helped to host a donor forum for Sri Lanka and raise 4.5 billion US Dollars … to rebuild war ravaged infrastructure during a ceasefire agreement in the island nation’s civil war.”
In December 2022, after the abovementioned developments took place between Japan and Sri Lanka on the sidelines of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) meeting, the island’s new head of state President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced that his government was intent on mending fences with the East Asian giant that had been supportive of Sri Lanka over the decades, with a special emphasis on trying to get the abandoned LRT project back on the track (Wikipedia, ‘Western Region Megapolis Light Rail Transit’).
“However … and even a few months later, the Japanese Ambassador to Sri Lanka at the time (March 2023) told a forum in Colombo that “a decision has not been made as yet about the revival of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)-funded Light Rail Transit (LRT) project stretching from Colombo Fort to Malabe”, as quoted in a media report (NewsWire, ‘Japan yet to consider revival of Light Rail project’, 30 March 2023).
The Japanese official intimated that “the decision about the project depends on the reforms of the Sri Lankan government, and if Sri Lanka can regain the trust of the Japanese government and business community”…”the revival of the project will be considered when those conditions are met.”
Slow train to the east
In a post-Cold War milieu where until recently at least Russia was marginalised in an increasingly multi-polar world, the emergence of China as a contender against US economic hegemony was to some extent counterbalanced by the role played by American ally Japan in Asian region development.
As a news report on the cancelled LRT project observed: “Sri Lanka, which lies along key shipping routes in the Indian Ocean, has become a hotspot for influence between India and Japan on the one side and China on the other” (Reuters, ‘Sri Lanka suspends Japanese-funded rail project over costs’, 24 September 2020).
With Japan out of the equation for the LRT project, there was growing concern that China might step in once again. The poor governance ethos of arbitrary policy making and summary decision taking was thereafter to be compounded by other issues of governance such as covering up mistakes made.
Bumf and bureaucracy
The project that was due to commence with land acquisition in 2020 and be concluded in 2024 with an LRT that would have trains running along an elevated track at four-minute intervals during rush hour and 10-minute intervals at off-peak times ended in ignominy for the Sri Lankan Government when the project was arbitrarily terminated by the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration citing the ongoing economic crisis at the time (Janaka Ratnasiri, ‘Cancellation of Light Rail Project: Some alternatives to reduce congestion’, 7 October 2020) – but that was not to be all. The Government of Sri Lanka later claimed that the LRT project was not terminated per se but only temporarily halted (Wikipedia, ‘Western Region Megapolis Light Rail Transit’).
Three months after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa terminated the project unilaterally in a letter issued through the Secretary to the President as written proof of cancellation, a government minister claimed that “the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system funded by Japan has not been cancelled, but is under review” (NewsWire, ‘LRT project not cancelled, but under review – Minister’, 17 February 2021); with that government official, the State Minister of Urban Development among other ministries asserting: “The construction of a 15.8 km LRT track between the Colombo Fort area and Malabe is under review.”
The minister in question had attempted in his statement to the media to explain the perceived cancellation in terms of the suspension of one of the four lanes (at US$ 2 billion compared to 400 million US dollars) of the two-line project, citing a cost discrepancy on which grounds it was allegedly temporarily suspended.
Also claiming that the project was still up and running, the Secretary to the Ministry of Transport had previously, as much as a year after the cancellation (that is in September 2022), stated that since Cabinet had approved the project, it required termination by the Cabinet, and that a letter issued by the Secretary to the President was insufficient grounds to terminate the project (The Morning, ‘Colombo Light Rail Transit project still alive’, 27 September 2020).
This attempt at political spin cast further shadows over poor governance and deepened the dark cloud over the goodwill between Sri Lanka and one of its longest-standing allies and international developmental partners in a multi-polar world – one where post-Cold War realities had brought China as a rival to Russia in the conflict with the superpower US.
Summary
The proposed LRT project, formerly known as the Colombo Light Railway (Wikipedia, ‘Western Region Megapolis Light Rail Transit’), was an integral part of the Western Region Megapolis plan, and was “developed encompassing all aspects of transportation to provide a framework for urban transport development in the Western Region up to 2035” (Ministry of Megapolis and Western Development, ‘Western Region Megapolis Transport Master Plan: Final Report’, November 2016) and was therefore a visionary, timely and strategically outlined project. Its “development plan priorities” [were] “prepared based on the urgency of the [need] to resolve the critical urban transport problems” (Ministry of Megapolis and Western Development, ‘Western Region Megapolis Transport Master Plan: Final Report’, November 2016); and as a project of not only local, capital or regional but also national importance, because of the international cooperation dimension involving sovereign states and bilateral donor relations in a geopolitical milieu, it was “based on a logical sequence of implementation in order to maximize the outcomes in achieving the urban mobility objectives”.
But in what was widely perceived as an arbitrary move and even a blasé exercise of authoritarian power, the then incumbent President Gotabaya Rajapaksa ordered the Ministry of Transport to “terminate this project and close the project office with immediate effect” (AFP, ‘Sri Lanka scraps $1.5bn Japan funded light rail system’, 24 September 2020), bringing to an abrupt halt the project that “commenced during the presidency of Maithripala Sirisena, in 2017, and was regarded as the largest single foreign-funded infrastructure project in Sri Lanka”.
It was a terminal move that received Cabinet approval for cancellation on 29 September 2020, on the grounds that it would cause “huge environmental damage” (Janaka Ratnasiri, ‘Cancellation of Light Rail Project: Some alternatives to reduce congestion’, 7 October 2020, The Island Online) and come at “a very high cost”, although “Cabinet approval had been granted previously, both on environmental and financial grounds”. And yet, it was the decision to unilaterally terminate the project – and not the implementation of the project itself – that came at a very high set of costs.
Firstly, financial: as “a Japan-based firm involved in a scrapped light rail transit project had claimed 5,896 billion rupees from Sri Lanka” (EconomyNext, ‘Japan firm claims damages of Rs.5.8bn from Sri Lanka after LRT deal scrapped’, 18 June 2021) as a result of termination of the US$130 million dollar contract with that consultancy, according to a revelation by the country’s Auditor-General.
Secondly, fiscal: the suspension of a Japanese Government 30 billion yen concessionary loan signed with Sri Lanka in March 2020.
Thirdly, reputational: the souring of relations between Sri Lanka and its long-time supporter, the nation, government and people of Japan.
Fourthly, political: the fallout from this policy imbroglio as well as other political fiascoes such as a short-sighted chemical fertiliser ban and myopic monetary policies saw the regime of Gotabaya Rajapaksa coming to an ignominious end in July 2022 through the exercise of popular sovereignty vested in the people instrumentalising a citizens’ movement.
Fifthly, social: the ongoing predicament of millions of commuters who continue to literally take their lives in their hands on inadequate and outdated railway infrastructure that is subject to delays, derailments and railroad union strikes.
Finally (last not least), geopolitical: naïve governmental approaches to honouring international agreements and blasé cancellation of the deal between sovereign states that had partnered in development, which could precariously affect the balance of a post-Cold War regional order. In an emerging, complex and potentially threatening geopolitical milieu, the greatest fallout from the LRT fiasco was – over and above sovereign state-level displeasure – a realignment of allies, whereby Sri Lanka, ostensibly abandoned and at Japan’s displeasure, could slide towards China.
Recommendations
A vision to develop Sri Lanka’s railway infrastructure is the need of the hour even now, over four years after the island nation arbitrarily terminated a project that would meet its creaking infrastructural needs at concessionary terms from a friendly nation’s government. It must be a vision that is ably backed up by the precise planning and meticulous attention to detail that the aborted LRT system that was funded by JICA and the Government of Japan displayed.
But it would serve the national interest better if the type of bureaucratic bungling that was brought on by a regime change could be pre-empted, perhaps by the simple expedient of a parliamentary act to prevent successive governments from undoing the good work attempted by their administrative predecessors.
This is by no means an easy task in a parliament where remnants of regimes can hold the executive arm of government to ransom or take the people’s will hostage because of bitter political rivalries that trump the national interest.
It will take not only a regime change but a paradigm shift in the Standard Operating Procedure of ensuing Sri Lankan governments to enable the emergence of such a set of principles whereby the sovereign commitments of the state do not get derailed by the whims and fancies of authoritarian chief executives or any arbitrary bureaucratic decisions.
There needs to be a radical redrafting of the social contract for this to eventuate whereby there is a better check and balance between the executive and the legislature, as well as between the government and state bureaucracy, and the people’s will versus wilful presidents. Such a reality will not eventuate without the awareness of the general populace about the international-level costs to the national interest.
So especially in a global milieu where the old world order of bipolarity has changed so drastically that in an increasingly multi-polar world, even the (albeit arbitrary) cancellation of a developmental project can cause a regional geopolitical shift by driving a strategically important small country such as Sri Lanka away from US allies to China.
It is in the context of all of the above that the mutual interest of and initiative shown by the governments of Japan and Sri Lanka to get the long-abandoned LRT project back on the track is to be welcomed and wholeheartedly endorsed by the public – especially commuters but also all stakeholders in growth, development, progress under a renascent good governance.
| Editor-at-large of LMD | On the
fast track again |
