Sri Lanka’s next President

There’s a political poster that’s been splashed on the walls of Colombo. Black letters on a yellow background mean that the author or the party cannot be identified. It is obviously a teaser campaign. It comes with a promise, which of course is the bread and butter of all politicians. Apparently, ‘the lie will come to an end,’ and on the 29th, the name of the messiah who will take all Sri Lankans to some yet-to-be-named promised land will be revealed.

This is the season for that kind of thing, so the timing is not bad at all. After all, people are talking about elections these days. They are wondering if elections will be held soon and, if so, whether it would be a presidential or parliamentary election. They talk about candidates, those who have announced their intentions and those who might very soon.

An election there will be, that much is certain. Will it be to elect a president or 225 parliamentarians? Let’s first consider the second option, which at this point is something that the president can decide upon.

A general election will tell us the relative strengths of the various parties and, of course, the temper of the electorate. As things stand, two political groups stand to gain: the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the National People’s Jathika Jana Balavegaya, better known as the NPP, which is made up of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and a scattering of individuals of varying stature and more or less nondescript organisations.

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, or the ‘Pohottuwa’, would benefit only in the sense that a few would get elected, whereas they would probably fare even worse if a presidential election comes first; the winner and the winner’s party would gain enough edge to shove the Pohottuwa closer to the dustbin of history. In any event, they wouldn’t even get king-making numbers. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) is where the United National Party was after Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the presidential election in 2019. The SLFP might secure a few seats in an alliance but would be an also-ran if it opts to contest alone.

How about the NPP? Today, the NPP is being considered by people who would not have a few years or even a few months ago. They say, ‘let’s try these people out.’ That’s the slogan of the desperate, dispossessed, and maybe the hopeful. Nevertheless, that ‘default option’ might work in their favour, although anything less than an absolute majority would make the ‘we can and we will win’ mantra they’ve been marketing sound a bit hollow.

The UNP was the Grand Old Party, but the ‘grand’ part of it is no longer valid. They have a president, but the question is, ‘where are his people?’ Some may answer, ‘with Sajith’, while others might think that in a season of shifting alliances, prominent stalwarts may gravitate back to the political walawwa. In a word, unlikely, especially if a parliamentary election is held first.

Why should the President risk it all by going for a general election when he may be able to cobble together a workable alliance should he run for President and win? He is risk-averse, as he clearly showed in 2010 and 2019 when the stars were aligned against him. In 2015, he worked out the arithmetic: Maithripala Sirisena had a better chance, and the premiership was a decent consolation prize.

The contenders

It’s a presidential election that’s on the cards. This forces us to consider the contenders: as of now, Ranil Wickremesinghe (UNP, with or without the support of ex-UNPers), Sajith Premadasa (SJB sans Sarath Fonseka and Champika Ranawaka from his 2019 team), and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (JVP plus all those who have to utter the prayer ‘We are NPP and not JVP’ to convince themselves that they are not gullible).

We could delve into the histories of the relevant parties, ideologies espoused and amended, and track records, but that would only produce dirty and bloodied hands. Sri Lanka and Sri Lankans are realists; they go for the ‘best of the bad lot’ simply because it’s their names that are on ballot papers. In a presidential election, they look at candidates more than parties, personalities more than ideology or party history. So let’s consider these three because the others are still peripheral to the case: Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW for convenience), Sajith Premadasa (SP), and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD).

RW is the most experienced politician in the country. He’s either been a cabinet minister, the Leader of the Opposition, Prime Minister, or the President since the age of 28, except for a few months between Gotabaya’s rise and fall. His detractors may say that he was a pin-chance president, but in all sobriety, it has to be acknowledged that when everyone was ready to slash and burn, only he undertook the unenviable task of dousing a nation that had been set on fire. Chest-beaters and braggarts ranted and raved, but RW brought about some semblance of stability. We are not out of the woods, as he often says, but he has made it possible for people who believe that they will not be lost in the wilderness forever.

The question is, ‘RW with whom?’ He simply doesn’t have a team that’s worth talking about. He has depended on the same set of people whose one and only character trait is self-interest, in other words, keeping RW in power so they could exercise power. Their blemishes are many. Let’s leave it at that.

A few weeks ago, at an event marking Rohitha ‘Raththaran’ Abeygunawardena’s 27 years in politics, Pohottuwa strongman Basil Rajapaksa took a not-so-veiled dig at the President, ‘Nayath nae, bayath nae (we are not in debt to you, and neither do we fear you).’

That was one of many moments where RW could have shed the Pohottuwa baggage. After all, at this point, the Pohottuwa needs RW more than he needs the Pohottuwa. He could have spoken about debts owed by the Rajapaksas, not just to him but to every citizen of this country and those yet unborn.

He could have spoken about fear. He could have said, for example, that it’s quite alright for anyone not to fear him, but that he knows how terrified Basil was during the last days of the Aragalaya, where he took refuge and who offered him protection. He didn’t say anything, which begs the question, ‘if a man is not willing to stand up for himself, will he stand up for you?’

In the end, RW continues to stand with the debtors and the arsonists. Why then should anyone believe he would abandon them at any point?

Speaking of standing up, we can also talk about SP. Just the other day, party stalwart Hirunika Premachandra was arrested. Now Hirunika, without a doubt, is a brave woman. She stood up to the supposedly invincible Rajapaksas all by herself. Indeed, the events she set off helped RW, SP, and AKD; this too must be mentioned.

This is not to say she’s a paragon of virtue and can do no wrong. She took the law into her hands, albeit on behalf of a victim. No one says that SP should have criticised the judges in this case, but he could have talked about Hirunika’s courage or simply offered a word of support in her moment of distress. He did not. In a country where thugs get away scot-free and politicians pamper them no end, this was the least he could do. He did nothing. If he doesn’t have a kind word for someone like Hirunika, would he care about the trials and tribulations of the ordinary citizen?

SP is no ‘fresh face’ in politics. He’s been in Parliament for 24 years. He’s been a cabinet minister and the Leader of the Opposition. He adds to this the half a century of his father’s political life, almost at every turn. He thereby lays claim to President Premadasa’s legacy but forgets that it was not untainted.

His way or the highway

To his credit, he has a team or rather has so far managed to make them toe his line. That says a lot about his team, though. The SJB was launched in opposition to RW, RW’s dictatorial ways, and the UNP’s lack of internal democracy. Today, SP is no better than RW when it comes to giving leadership to a party. It’s his way or the highway. He has arrogated upon himself all decision-making powers. The stalwarts say nothing. Are they fascinated with navel-gazing, one must ask.

RW is the leader of the party of which SP was the deputy leader for a long time. So, the UNP’s one-time leader and deputy are the President and Leader of the Opposition, respectively. Ironically, they have no ideological differences. They are actually very much alike in the way they lead their parties. However, even to save the country or defeat a common enemy, these two just can’t come together. Their egos and self-interest are bigger than all that.

RW is around 20 years older than SP. SP didn’t realise that he doesn’t lose if RW wins. RW didn’t realise that it is not a disgrace to go out of his way to talk SP into returning to the UNP. Is self-interest and ego what’s most important to these two? If so, it disqualifies both of them. They are not the leaders most suited to face the challenges of the next five years.

What about AKD? AKD, like SP, came to Parliament in 2000. He too was a cabinet minister. He was very vocal when the JVP backed President Chandrika Kumaratunga, Mahinda Rajapaksa, and Sarath Fonseka. He was the leader of the party when the JVP backed Maithripala Sirisena. He cannot wash away the sins he was party to, even if today’s JVP talks and acts as though political life in Sri Lanka began after 1988-89.

The JVP, for all their rhetoric, still seems to be a confused political entity. They simply cannot go beyond populist slogans. There’s a glaring lack of coherence and clarity in the statements issued by party stalwarts. Their concerns about governance are legitimate, and one might even believe that they are serious about fixing the flaws. Indeed, AKD must at some point understand that the make-or-break matter is finance and governance, not only governance. We are simply too close to the brink to have the luxury of a system-fix first. As of now, they are in “dennam-kaasi” mode, or ‘we will fix this, we will do that, etc.’ Nothing of the ‘how.’ Ask them a question about policies and processes, and the NPP boys and girls get hot under the collar, shower invective on the well-meaning questioner and their political rivals. That’s been the JVP’s history. The NPP is no better.

A man of sincerity

Despite some inconsistencies by certain members of the NPP regarding policy issues, AKD comes out as a man of sincerity. He does not belong to some political family and, as such, does not carry dynastic baggage. Most importantly, he undoubtedly has empathy for the people who bear the brunt of all the manufacturing defects of the system and the additional burdens created by the major political parties when in power.

So where do we stand? Does Sri Lanka need RW’s experience? Should Sri Lanka be wary of his isolationist tendency and an unelected inner circle who has his ear and, worse, may be controlling his mind? Can Sri Lanka afford not to have SP’s team? Should Sri Lanka worry about a team that may waive intellect, reason, and integrity in favour of a clearly self-absorbed leader, a man who tends to be about ‘I, me and myself’? Can Sri Lanka afford AKD’s idealism in a party that has the word but not the wisdom?

We need a candidate who thinks, feels, and acts like a leader. We need a candidate who understands that he may not have the answers but has the wisdom and humility to seek out those who may have them and embrace them regardless of what’s happened in the past. We need a candidate who has the fortitude to see beyond presidential powers and fortunes of party and loyalists. We need the candidate who least fears talent, ability, and vision in political rivals or non-political actors. We need, above all, a candidate who respects the independence of the judiciary to a fault and follows the rule of law.

None of the above three could be described in the above manner right now. They could move in those directions and perhaps offer some hope so that people may vote for someone who can unify the country, face challenges, and deliver.

RW, SP, and AKD have a task: convince the electorate that they should not give up on hope and that they should not look elsewhere for a leader.