The ‘tough guy’ President and the Aragalaya

“The right to peaceful assembly stood at the core of democracy and was crucial for the achievement of other human rights…” 

– UN High Commissioner for Human Rights [Reported at the 50th Session, June 2022] –

When former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s residence was stormed by an enormous wave of disgruntled citizens, it wasn’t because they thought he was weak but precisely because they thought him autocratic. Having protested for months to no avail against a strong President armed with the 20th Amendment, a solid mandate at the Presidential election and a strong Government with a two-thirds majority, the long-suffering citizens at the end of their tether accumulated a critical mass that finally dislodged the head of state, following the resignations of the Prime Minister and the finance minister, all members of the same powerful family. 

In his last act before he had to flee in the face of an approaching mass of humanity, President GR appointed in his place, someone who was manifestly weak politically: no mandate from the people having lost his seat in parliament; no party to speak of having lost most of its members to a newly formed entity; no little hostility from his erstwhile colleagues for his conduct as a party leader; no love lost between him and the people at anytime during his long career in politics. In short, a thoroughly unpopular politician with no political power to speak of. 

Once the ruling party in disarray figured that this could be a mutually beneficial arrangement, and that this lone wolf could best protect their interests, he transitioned from interim Sheep to appointed Wolf. It looked like he had finally found his true home with the Pohottuwa. Bang came the throwback to the 1980’s repression. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the weak politician, was in his element, proving that there was nothing he didn’t like about repression. 

Arrest the Aragalaya

The sudden change in the style of governance became obvious as the President came down hard on the voluntarily receding protests. The arrests of activists of the Aragalaya continue apace. The authorities use all means at their disposal to target, seek out, harass and question anyone who is seen as halfway influential during the protests. Student leaders, activists, Opposition party members who question the President’s legitimacy to govern, are either arrested or questioned by police in an attempt to intimidate. 

The people neither had, nor have any illusions about the recomposed administration. They have the scantest regard for the members of parliament of the ruling coalition, and even less for the President. Despite the tough guy arrests, they don’t think him strong. The memory of State repression in the 1980s when he was a cabinet minister may glow in his mind like a guiding star but President Wickremesinghe needs a human rights reboot for the 21st century. 

Come September: Geneva beckons

The UNHRC 51st session starts on 12 September. “Situation of human rights in Sri Lanka – Comprehensive Report of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights” is due to be presented. It is rumoured that following the currently on-going blatant violations of human rights, a new resolution against Sri Lanka, an updated version of the already damning one may be submitted to the Council at this session. 

In a report presented at the last UNHRC session in June summarising a panel discussion on ‘the promotion and protection of human rights in the context of peaceful protests’, the High Commissioner for Human Rights stated in her opening remarks that the “right to peaceful assembly stood at the core of democracy and was crucial for the achievement of other human rights.” [A/HRC/50/47]

In a description that fits the situation in Sri Lanka, the High Commissioner said that “…many human rights violations often occurred in the context of peaceful protests. Those included extrajudicial or summary executions, arbitrary arrests and detention, enforced disappearances, and torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.” The Report also mentions the “misuse of new technologies” by states. 

One is immediately reminded of the numerous arrests, most recently under the PTA, where the authorities actually may request the full 90 days detention for student leaders who protested without a single weapon in hand, and the daily trudge of Aragalaya activists to the CID for questioning. 

A team from the Office of the High Commissioner in Geneva, recently arrived on a fact finding mission in Colombo will have a surfeit of data of recent provenance to take back with them for the 51st session.

Macro-stability

Sri Lanka is in dire straits now and stability is a distant dream for the country as it is for individuals. The IMF due to visit very soon, will be looking for some sign of it. What it will find is something other than that. Even though the IMF is not known for prioritising human rights concerns, even they consider some aspects of governance as “macro-critical”. 

A Human Rights expert quoted in the Report referred to above on Peaceful Assembly found in his research that “When demonstrations were not allowed or were repressed, it was a sign of an authoritarian regime, and prohibition or repression of demonstrations might lead to a deep-rooted crisis and even to armed conflict.”

Sri Lanka is no stranger to this. Sri Lankans had hoped that they had left all that behind. The demonstrations thus far have been non-violent. But the President and his supporters seem to think that the protestors need to be taught a lesson, perhaps to discourage them from making a habit of it when austerity programs, the IMF advocated or not, are imposed on them.

UN Human Rights Council Reports point out that this is a recipe not for stability but for disaster. “Closing civic space can increase the risk of conflict, owing to heightened tensions from unaddressed grievances and demands from individuals and groups who are unable to channel them appropriately.” [A/74/349 Report of the Special Rapporteur]

A large number of people have already been plunged into poverty. It is useful to review what the Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights has to say: 

“Poverty is not solely a lack of income, but rather is characterized by a vicious cycle of powerlessness, stigmatization, discrimination, exclusion and material deprivation, which all mutually reinforce each other. Powerlessness manifests itself in many ways, but at its core is an inability to participate in or influence decisions that profoundly affect one’s life, while decisions are made by more powerful actors who neither understand the situation of people living in poverty, nor necessarily have their interests at heart”. [A/HRC/38/33]

This pretty much describes why the people of Sri Lanka decided to protest and are likely to do so again. They have no faith in an administration headed by someone who was perceived as complicit in one of the biggest ‘misuse of public property’; a charge under which he is now arresting young protestors. The Bond Scam as it is popularly known, contributed mightily to the debt problems facing Sri Lanka and is a stunning example of corruption fitting well into the ‘macro-critical’ category.

The administration is buttressed by a political party renowned for its own spectacular versions, where the IMF will recognise the signs to be “macro-critical” as in their experience with Mozambique, “where enormous loans made to State-owned enterprises were concealed”. [A/74/349] The Sri Lankan President himself confirmed a similar situation here, when he was appointed Prime Minister and had to take stock and found that the figures of the total debt have been concealed and therefore cannot be calculated at present. A former Auditor General was reported in the newspapers as saying that in some State institutions, loans are being repaid as recurrent expenditure but they will never know when the debt is fully paid because they don’t maintain a balance sheet. He also is reported as confirming that loans made to State institutions have been concealed and therefore remain hidden. 

Aragalaya renewed

The new phase of the people’s protests has started in the provinces. The fishermen still unable to get the fuel for their boats have been marching for days. The farmers will not be far behind. The students marched a few days ago, and their leaders’ arrests have only put them in an aggrieved mood. The only parliamentary party to openly declare they will not be party to any form of governance arrangement with the ruling administration, the NPP-JVP had a protest march and a rally in the suburbs with rousing speeches promising resistance to government’s plans and calling loudly and determinedly for fresh elections. The main Opposition party, while perhaps conceding on the request for participation in an all-parties ‘governance structure’, has also called for a time-line for early elections. It doesn’t look anything like the Aragalaya is over. It is evolving in stages. 

This could have ended another, better, way. But power has its own dynamic. Repression too.