Will Gotabaya and Sajith have the guts and freedom to deliver?

 The challenge for Gotabaya and Sajith is to display guts and not do the easy task of just mouthing it. Current signs are not very promising considering the vermin who have begun a comeback to political stages

If one were to read the political column of the Sunday Times of 27 October, and consider those who have contributed to making Sri Lanka what it is today, a nation riddled with corruption, a nation without principles, ethics or morality, a nation where politicians think only of themselves, a nation that is not secure from terrorism, a nation drowning in debt, and a nation without an economic plan, the term vermin could apply to many who have been entrusted the task of governing the country. Those from the highest office holder downwards cannot be exempt from this characterisation.

These unsavoury practices may be unavoidable to an extent in a system where democracy is limited to a periodic vote. The vote is the currency for power and opportunity. However, what differentiates a situation from such a degree of inevitability, is a situation where votes are traded at any cost for pure personal benefit and glorification and to the utter detriment of the country. 

Whoever who can bring some votes which otherwise may have gone to the opponent, and whoever who can vomit as much dirt as possible, often without any supporting evidence to discredit a contestant, will find a place in one or the other camps.

In this scenario, politicians particularly leaders, may voice guts but not display guts, and they may accommodate vermin for their votes. The challenge for Gotabaya and Sajith is to display guts and not do the easy task of just mouthing it. 

This election should not be about the power, abilities and characteristics of one individual as the Constitution under the 19th Amendment does not give this individual powers that both contestants appear to believe they have. Electing a President will be about electing a team that will eventually govern the country. The quality of a team is not defined by the good players in a team, but by the bad. In politics, this is even more so as it is not a game and it involves the country and its future. 

On 16 November, voters should make a decision not only on the merits of the candidates but on the merits of the respective teams. The President does not, cannot and should not try to govern by himself as it could result in an undemocratic governance, inefficient and ineffective governance or authoritarian governance.

The 19th Amendment has changed the landscape of political governance in the country. Despite all the peacock strutting, neither of the two major candidates will have the power that the pre 19th Amendment Presidency had. The Prime Minister and the Parliament will have real power and unless this combination of the President, the Prime Minister and the Parliament works well and in unison, the country would go back several steps even from where it is now.

The political column of the Sunday Times of the 27th should be read by all interested in knowing how the model that was introduced on 8 January 2015 has not worked for the country. The disjointed, self-serving and corrupt administration that followed should be a lesson for all in rejecting anything even remotely close to that model.

In respect of teams, more is known of key persons who are in the Gotabaya camp than in the Sajith camp. In fact, very little or nothing is known of the key figures in a Premadasa cabinet, including who would be the Prime Minister. 

Sajith Premadasa’s model, going by his statements on political stages, is to reduce the cabinet to 25 ministers, and introduce a new set of younger, dynamic, honest ministers who will have to work and sleep very little. It will be interesting to see a President without real power making these happen. The only cabinet ministership known is that of Sarath Fonseka who is expected to become the Defence Minister. That takes the one powerful ministry that the President could have had as the 19th Amendment still assigns major responsibilities in defence to the minister, and not the President unless the President is the Minister.

Who will be the next Prime Minister?

This statement raises a question about the senior, some older, but powerful persons like Ranil Wickremesinghe, Ravi Karunanayake, Malik Samarawickrema, Mangala Samaraweera, Akhila Karayawasam, Sagala Ratnayake, Harsha De Silva, Eran Wickremaratne, Arjuna Ranatunga, Patali Ranawaka, Daya Gamage and a host of others. What will happen to these ministers including the Prime Minister Wickremesinghe? Who will be the next Prime Minister? Interesting challenge for the voters!

Some of these persons are strong Wickremesinghe supporters and one cannot see how they will play second fiddle in a Premadasa presidency. The setting appears to be there for another disjointed government should Sajith Premadasa wins the Presidency. The situation portends a repetition of the last four years although the spoke in the wheel for them, President Sirisena will not be there to run a parallel government. A parallel government could well be run by those within and paralyse a President Premadasa.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s Prime Minister is common knowledge. Mahinda Rajapaksa. He will call the tune and will decide who the ministers are going to be. A President Gotabaya is likely to keep the Defence Ministry. Party leaders in the SLPP/SLFP and UPFA are likely to become ministers. They are known. That does not mean they are what the country needs to lift it from where it is now and to put into action the manifesto of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He has also said there will be only 30 cabinet ministers. Who will ‘sacrifice’ or be ‘sacrificed’ for the sake of the country is a challenge for voters to ponder. 

After all, those who worked with Gotabaya during the last few years to launch Viyath Maga, Eliya and other programs, and perhaps helped to prepare his detailed manifesto may be eyeing national list entry to Parliament and Ministerships! Post-election disappoints and even migration to opponent’s camps, after all, as a general election is not far away, is equally applicable for both camps. 

The danger to the country from a Rajapaksa rule is the dominance of the family in such a regime. If an adage that a Rajapaksa cannot do any wrong comes into being, the country could become a lawless State as those who derive their power from any Rajapaksa could take the law onto their hands and not face the consequences of the law of the land. When politicians are intoxicated with power, the law enforcement agencies may also turn a blind eye to the high handed acts of such henchmen as they will naturally value their jobs, their livelihoods and their families over the wrath of a Rajapaksa supporter who believes he or she has been wronged. 

Some events have happened even before victory and Gotabaya has become President, and Mahinda Rajapaksa has become Prime Minister and at least three more Rajapaksas have become powerful ministers. Some supporters have begun intimidation of attendees at meetings, workshops and discussion gatherings that have had nothing to do with the election. 

If Gotabaya and Mahinda Rajapaksa and other family members do not adopt a zero tolerance of high handed behaviour on the part of their supporters, the country will be in for a period when some will become more equal than others and the law of the land stops being applied to them.

Sri Lanka (probably not alone in the world) is known to have ardent supporters of one party or the other who swan into other parties or gravitate to opposing power centres when deprived of their positions of power and influence in the power centre they are in. 

A case in point is a onetime ardent supporter of Mahinda Rajapaksa from Kelaniya now joining the Swan symbol and addressing meetings in support of Sajith Premadasa. Plenty of dirty linen from the past, factual or not, is thrown around to discredit the Rajapaksa administration and the family. 

It is unfortunate Sajith Premadasa has lowered himself to the lowest common denominator and embraced such individuals to help him defeat his political enemy. His promise of being different to other leaders has surely taken a fatal blow. 

The Rajapaksa camp is not free of such individuals although they may not be in the same class as the ones who have gravitated towards Premadasa. Some who held key ministries in the present government until the formal divorce and who are not exactly Snow Whites are now with Gotabaya Rajapaksa. A key figure in the SLFP and a senior minister who had a penchant for paying the country’s money as high rents to friends is now a regular at Gotabaya Rajapaksa campaign meetings.

The Sunday Times political column mentioned above also refers to back door efforts being made by the incumbent President to enter Parliament as a National list MP, and if this is true, perhaps to bargain for a powerful ministry in return for SLFP support at a future general election. Other SLFP seniors have openly stated that they will not allow the SLPP to engulf them, meaning, there will be infighting amongst them before and after a general election.

It appears that the future Parliament and the future government is likely to be unstable irrespective of who wins the Presidency unless enough horse trading is done to make sure the restless self-serving politicians are kept happy with power, influence and opportunity to make their current largesse even larger. 

The alternative is for a third force to emerge, as they say, to keep the bastards honest.