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Tuesday, 10 February 2015 01:12 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
constitutes a barrier to entry.
Just imagine the costs of campaigning across the Anuradhapura District which is 6,664 sq. km in size, or the costs of reaching 1,637,537 registered voters in the Gampaha District. Former Minister Kumara Welgama is on record saying that he spent Rs. 800 lakhs (80 million) for his last campaign (2010) in the Kalutara District (1,576 sq. km in size with 897,349 voters), not the hardest of districts to campaign in.
The quantum of funds required to mount an effective campaign constitutes a barrier to entry into politics by those who are not in a position to spend their own wealth or are unwilling to make the necessary moral compromises. Corruption is a necessary outcome of the current system.
Another complaint relates to the incentives created for internecine violence among candidates from the same party, known as the “manapa pore.” The introduction of preferential votes improved the previous system of proportional representation (PR) which assigned extraordinary power to political party bosses unconstrained by internal party democracy. Yet, it did position candidates from the same party as enemies. Much violence ensued, including the killing of candidates, activists and by-standers.
Where are we now?
The Select Committee headed by MP Dinesh Gunawardene, appointed by the UNP Government in 2003, did not recommend a return to the first-past-the-post (FPP) system (with a few multi-member constituencies) that was in effect from the introduction of the franchise to the promulgation of the 1978 Constitution. Possibly, the multi-party committee understood its pernicious effects on minority and small parties. It may have also wished to avoid the massive swings in the Parliamentary power balance unreflective of votes cast.
For example, in 1977 the UNP, with only 50.92% of the votes, was rewarded with a 5/6ths majority. The former governing party won 29.72% of the vote but was reduced to eight MPs and failed to even qualify for the position of Leader of the Opposition.
This kind of outcome is not unique to Sri Lanka. The last general election in India produced a similar result. Prime Minister Modi’s BJP won only 31% of the votes of cast, but was rewarded with 282 seats, amounting to 51.93%, a clear majority in the Lok Sabha; the Congress Party obtained 19.31% of the votes but was left with only 44 seats (8.1%), unqualified even to appoint the Leader of the Opposition.
The Gunawardene Committee recommended a hybrid solution whereby 140 members would be elected by FPP, 70 by PR, and 15 appointed through the National List. They recommended that a 2:1 ratio be maintained between those elected by FPP and those elected by PR. The votes of those who won a seat under FPP rules would be excluded in the next step of allocating seats under PR to political parties.
Depending on whether the unit for assigning PR seats is District or Province (or even the whole country), the allotments to parties would differ. For example, the predecessor to the JHU was awarded a seat through the National List (based on country-wide votes) in 2000 through it failed to qualify for a seat at the district level.
Despite electoral reforms being included in the 100-day program of the victorious presidential candidate, there appears to be some back-pedaling, exemplified by the comments of Deputy Minister and UNP Treasurer Eran Wickramaratne that foreign experts had advised him that changing the electoral system within the promised time is impractical.
The time to consult experts was before making election promises. Now that promises have been made, and votes have been cast based on them, the only relevant question is how the reforms are to be done, not whether they are to be done.
A pragmatic solution
Local experts believe that implementing a variation of the Gunawardene recommendation is feasible within the 100 days so that the 2015 general election can be conducted under new rules as promised by those supporting the common candidate.
Reducing the number of FPP seats to 140 will pose some challenges because currently there are 160 polling divisions for which political parties have, for the most part, appointed organisers and which the Department of Elections uses as the basis for conducting elections and reporting results.
These polling divisions are remnants of the pre 1978 FPP system and do not reflect current population patterns in some cases. For example, a former single-member constituency, Homagama, is now one of the largest in the country with 174,909 registered voters. The old three-member constituency of Nuwara Eliya-Maskeliya lives on as a gargantuan polling division with 302,836 voters. On the other side, we have runt polling divisions such as Colombo West (40,609), Mahanuwara (40,020) and Kayts (22,057).
If we can slightly increase the number of Members of Parliament from the current 225, it will be possible to quickly demarcate around 160 polling divisions (for example, by recombining Colombo West and East to restore the old Colombo South electorate and splitting electorates such as Kaduwela and Homagama that have experienced massive population growth since 1978).
In keeping with the Gunawardene Committee recommendation of a 2:1 ratio, the equation would be 160 FPP + 80 PR + 15 from the National List, yielding a total of 255 seats in Parliament. This can, of course, be tweaked in various ways to yield higher or lower numbers.
The quick demarcation can be designated as provisional, valid solely for the 2015 general election, with a schedule agreed to for a more precise demarcation. The perfect should not be made the enemy of the good. It should not get in the way of keeping promises made to the people and restoring their trust in the political system and in the word of politicians.
