Energy crisis: A crisis of our own making!

It is no secret that if ever we had a continuing crisis, that is the energy crisis. Since the first oil price shock of 1973, we have been facing this in many ways.

It is quite sad that we have been trying to deal with the issue in a prescriptive manner doled out to us by others. We have been slow to realise the role that we should play in resolving this all-important problem.

We have been taught to seek economically viable cost effective solutions.

Needless to say, we have been searching for those solutions most of the time using all types of tools from expert committees, study tours, consultants to long, medium and short term plans, which include the use of freely-obtained mathematical models. I certainly would not discount the use of these tools and the solution itself, but the need for some innovation is evident.

This crisis has usually been averted through subjecting oneself to a financial crisis. The environmental crisis resulting as part of both these issues waits in the sideline or is sidelined! When viewed in detail the energy and economy related figures are quite powerful, striking and should cause real concern.

The question to be answered is: “Are we to resort to cosmetic surgery or for an innovative approach?” It is time that kilowatt answers are pushed into the mainstream megawatt range and with innovative financing. An inventive mindset is the way forward at this crucial juncture for the nation.

Addiction to oil

Currently more than 85% of the world’s energy is obtained from fossil fuels and this addiction to oil cannot go on forever. The end of oil perhaps is in sight and most certainly the peak oil condition. Even a country such as US which has significant reserves and even backyard oil rigs has called for self-reliance.

One of our main issues had been lack of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas. We have attributed our poor performance on the world stage due to lack of these modern means of energy. Our energy bill is significant and drains much of our export income. What meaningful steps are we taking to come out of this economic trap?

We know that supplies of oil are running out – or do we? Hence the costs of supplies that are inherently coming out of a dwindling supply should be on the way up minus some small swings in the opposite direction depending on certain global conditions. Those blips should not be considered as opportunities but as impediments to right decision making.

Sri Lanka, a country with 100% dependence, should focus on this as a primary objective and with commitment. Self reliance in key areas is critical for development.

Renewable energy

That renewable energy will play a key role in meeting future challenges is not in doubt. The question is how that can be made to do so or the steps that one should implement to enable the developments at a faster phase.

The differences in these two energy systems are quite significant. The emphasis made for renewable energy in Sri Lanka for quite some time is in pushing the concept to rural areas. Sri Lanka had the first renewable energy village in Asia in 1977.

Renewable energy can effectively deliver solutions in both rural and urban sectors and in all forms of energy service requirements and the partial bias in planning and discussions should be removed. In renewable energy there is no obvious single solution. A variety of approaches need to be made use of to realise benefits.

Only way forward

Renewable energy thus points to be the only way forward and sooner we embrace these concepts in an innovative manner better the future would be for us. A killer question that always awaits is how much your proposed project cost is and profitability and who else implemented similar programmes profitably.

When we never do or attempt anything unless all cost parameters are satisfied and the economic climate is ready, the future is going to be quite bleak indeed. I am sure none of the electricity planners factored in loss of downtime of a coal power station and the impact of the need for a mandatory cooling time when a malfunction or a maintenance need arises.

These inevitable micro-scenarios – no planner may consider these micro scenarios anyway – can cause havoc when we are not prepared. One must understand that the presence of a coal power station just does not mean the ‘Promised Land’ with lower unit prices. The current situation appears to be much more muddier as a result of the power station though it is not the thermal power station per se that is responsible.

Today it is said that the cost of capital is quite high. Renewable energy in Sri Lanka had benefited from several fund schemes approved and moved by international donor agencies. At present the National Energy Policy envisage 10% of energy through renewables by the year 2015.

However, to deliver commercially viable renewable energy in sufficient quantities, the renewable energy industry must overcome a number of regulatory, technical planning, and commercial issues. Many thousands of examples across many countries today however provide us with a rich source of case material from which we should be prepared to learn and prosper.

Decentralised Energy

Decentralised energy (DE) is the norm under renewable energy. Both small to medium and large scale DEs could be potentially identified. As an example the sugar industry in Sri Lanka can evolve to be a net energy producer and become a large scale DE. This is industrial cogeneration that is waiting to be realised.

Factors related to why these do not take place should be understood and remedied. Many industry wide cogeneration and combined heat and power opportunities exist but await implementation. The State could consider decentralised systems as a strategy option alongside the conventional systems currently followed.

We must develop our skill bases and people needs in anticipation of future technologies. Fuel cells are predicted to be the replacement to the current internal combustion engine, which is an energy wasting system that has being powering us since the last century.

Fuel cell buses

A simple economic question will not resolve our energy problem. It is fascinating when you hear about the hundred thousand solar roof challenge in Germany and to see buses powered by electric hybrid systems and biofuels running in two famous university towns in the United Kingdom – Oxford and Cambridge.

London experimented with fuel cell buses. If the question of cost effectiveness is the criteria for public engagement of a technology, these buses would not be on any street especially in UK with the North Sea pumping out oil and gas. Yet these will feed into the experience gained, skills developed, leading to a more robust understanding of the technology.

By positioning these experiments in two university towns, the synergy with students should lead to more experiential learning as well. Whoever wants to study systems, these are live examples right at their doorstep.

Our own interest in having a fleet of vehicles running on biofuels on Sri Lankan roads failed to materialise with everyone still going on with the usual question of how much a litre costs and opportunity cost of alcohol versus converting the available alcohol to fuel alcohol. For implementation of bio ethanol, we are waiting for the day when we will have excess alcohol post consumption!

A practical problem

Listening to too many economic discourses is not going to resolve our energy woes. Energy is a practical problem that needs to be resolved in the same manner. We know that the present method of discounting is proving thermal power stations to be more viable than hydro power.

Imagine in the good old days if our kings decided on construction planning with the aid of discount rates and net present worth – some of the wonders that we at present try to woo in tourists with would never have materialised!

We should be careful not to allow the numbers mindset to discount our existence to zero but take decisions by which the future will be proud of us, having risen to the occasion during a crisis and taking decisions to ensure lasting solutions – which renewables can provide!

(Professor Ajith de Alwis is Professor of Chemical and Process Engineering at the University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka. With an initial BSc Chemical engineering Honours degree from Moratuwa, he proceeded to the University of Cambridge for his PhD. He is a Science Team Leader at the Sri Lanka Nanotechnology Institute. He can be reached via email on [email protected])