Of guns and goons and of the Colombo voter

Our last ‘Polisocionomic’ dialogue – did we not say so?

This is one occasion we will have no pleasure over our thesis being proven correct – “did we not warn you so,” just last week in Part III of this dialogue; that this “preferential vote” manape fiasco was bound to blow-up in amanaape somewhere!

So as the euphoria settles down over the landslide UPFA victory (as was expected, though not so much in Kandy and Dehiwala-Mt. Lavinia) with the main opposition UNP ....

(or its multiple severed fractions) managing to hold on to their vote bank in Colombo but staggering behind with wide losses elsewhere, and the JVP hardly able to identify itself as a “third force” any longer; we note one historical phenomenon is once again clearly repeated – those little niches of polling divisions immediately contiguous to Colombo; North, Central, East & West and Borella that hug its outskirts have once again decided “to go the other way” (no pun intended) with the opposition!

What would otherwise have been a notable victory for the ruling regime has been clearly marred by the sad decline of discipline in their own ranks; gun-fights in broad daylight between its own membership that has now cost the life of one of their senior-most and staunch links in Colombo. Therefore on this IVth Part of our ‘Polisocionomic’ dialogue, we will focus on both these situations in the aftermath of this local authorities election:

(i) Why the “City Voter” continues to defy the rest of the country in voting, and;

(ii) What has become of our politics and political parties today

As those who have followed our previous discussions are aware, since these dialogues are based on a dynamic and hybrid model between political science and socioeconomics mainly, both “people centric” sciences (as opposed to say a bio science experiment in laboratory conditions); we will also need to discuss “human variables” that have a direct bearing on this equation, and attempt to derive some “scientific” reasoning (if possible) for the matters under discussion.

Are they “bourgeois capitalist fools” in Colombo?

Following a previous election when Colombo voted similarly, there were distributions of cattle-food amongst the good townsfolk, but despite such down-grading to bovine status they have once again voted more or less the same way.

Is it then because Colombo contains a bunch of UNP elitists-capitalists (as claimed by some) who are purely “commerce based” and interested solely in increasing their wealth at the expense of the downtrodden Proletariat?

Then what of the lower rungs of that community that constitutes a majority of the vote-base, the masses of daily-wage earners, slum-dwellers etc; are they also bourgeois capitalists? Why were they not attracted to the several promises of a “better life” such as high-rise apartments to replace their present slums?

Admittedly even the “upper classes” of Colombo have benefited from positive changes by this regime, beautified Independence Square for evening walks and multi-lane circular traffic systems that largely reduce wasting time on the roads; why then did they not wish to vote for the incumbent regime? Of course Colombo has historically voted “green” mostly, so there is that “human factor”, but is it not the same in other urbanised places like Kandy and Dehiwala-Mt. Lavinia; how did the UNP lose there then?

All this beckons careful analysis. As local authorities and provincial council elections historically attract lesser numbers to polls (unlike a general or presidential election), I’ve used the 2009 Provincial Council election results for comparison (see figure 1).

So how do these “numbers” translate into Polisocionomic thought?

Numbers don’t lie! In the two comparison charts are some very interesting revelations about our “city-voter”. You may be surprised as to how this analysis contravenes most things you may have heard politicians utter (mostly from the “bigger parties”), encapsulated in brief below:

• Increase in voter turnout – Countering the common statement that voters are too disillusioned to vote, primarily due to the absence of a potent opposition, etc., there is actually an increase in voter turnout in all five suburbs of Colombo, in Colombo North an above 10% increase with Colombo Central around 7% and Borella around 5% (see fig. 1). Kandy & Dehiwala-Mt. Lavinia have sustained its numbers with only a 1% drop in Kotte (see fig.2), thus showing that there is certainly no decline in voter interest even in other “city-based” voters.
• Strange decline in “registered voters” in Colombo North & Central – How did 151,308 registered voters drop to 137,214 in “North” and 103,050 drop to 88,725 in “Central” from 2009 in just under two years, surely populations must increase? Has anyone in the ruling party or opposition even attempted to find out what happened to these voters or their polling cards!
• Healthy for democracy - This voter turnout must be encouraged, as it shows confidence – that they still care what happens! In times of unbeatable strong governments and divided or weak oppositions, a danger lurks that the citizen will give-up demands for what is due to them and settle for whatever that’s dished out, let things “go the way they are” more due to the incorrect assumption that they can’t challenge it. This city-voter has shown their resilience and polled in increased numbers, they must have wanted to say something!

• Intellectual Voter – the number of “rejected votes” were minimal (both in Colombo and the outskirt-cities) that it was not worth the printing-space, which is once again healthy for the process. This voter (whether the “white collar” officer or daily-wage “labourer”) has shown that he/she knows their franchise and will unhesitatingly “speak” when asked to.
• Bells are ringing for “old parties”, new kids on the block – I’ve dealt with the “role of the opposition” below, but there are lessons to be learnt for all the parties here, both UNP and JVP in the opposition as indeed the ruling UPFA – none can be happy with this result!
• JVP hasn’t increased its vote-base at all in four suburbs out of five in Colombo and other three cities outside - their percentage remains the same! This is a sad situation for any political force that claims to “work for the people”. It is well and good to walk with your noses up as “intellectuals” and blaming the people for “not appreciating” your policies; what are you doing to get out there and explain it? You must speak for them to understand, noh?
• UNP on the other hand needs to be seriously worried and can’t be popping the champagne just yet! Their strongholds have plummeted by as much as 20% (West), 16% (North) and 7% (Central) and they’re celebrating what exactly? Even Kandy (which they’ve lost after decades) and Kotte, their losses are around 10%.
• If the UPFA thought they were gaining on the UNP loss, they need to study the numbers again; In three divisions out of the five in suburban Colombo (North, East & Borella) the drops are substantial (as much as 6%) but the gains are relatively marginal (between 2%-3%). In Kandy and Kotte they have shown a moderate increase, but dropped in Dehiwala-Mount; thus there doesn’t appear to be such an increase in voter confidence for the UPFA in the cities!
• The relatively new DPF (with a genesis in the grassroots – a former Western Provincial trade union WPF) shows massive popularity. It has beaten both the JVP & SLMC in all 5 Colombo divisions hands-down, and in most places even breathing down UPFA’s neck threatening a close fight for second place (see fig 1 - North 8% difference & West 9%). Let us not forget that following the May 2010 general election they fell out with UNP over the non-allocation of a seat, with Ganeshan vowing publicly that he would never allow the UNP to benefit from the minority vote again; has he succeeded? Thus whilst it is very healthy to see this “new opposition” forming itself as a force to be reckoned with, both “major parties” must ensure that this is not a creation of a disillusioned minority again, this time in Colombo and the suburbs after the north and the east!

Is the city voter’s cry – Oh, for democracy, oh for a potent opposition?

This “city-vote” appears to reflect more than anything a genuine need of the voter for a strong and potent Opposition; an absolute necessity and mandatory corollary to a democratic form of government.

There is definite disappointment with the ruling UPFA, if not with all the tricks it pulled before the election it should have easily won Colombo – which it didn’t! This is apparent even in the other cities (see fig 2) with 2% to 5% gain in Kandy & Kotte but a drop of 2% in Dehiwala-Mount.

However, this is no thanks to the UNP or JVP who have been fighting their own battles, but thanks to the actual will of the independent voter, the citizen asserting their democratic right of franchise and speaking very loudly and clearly; that they’re not happy with the present regime, nor are they confident in the opposition; dear God, can the Sri Lankan citizen be left in such political bankruptcy? It also appears that the incumbent regime has “sold” the now rather hacked “war-victory” trump-card for the last time in the cities; they haven’t “bought it” this time around.

Even a naïve student of politics would see that a vote for the “beetle leaf” wherever it was cast, was always more a popular vote for President Rajapaksa who displayed the political will to take-on terrorism and defeat it; rather than the multitude of characters running for office thereafter with his picture next to theirs on a poster. Does that mean that these “city-folk” are not patriotic? I daresay not and that only the contrary is true; that on this occasion, finally, at least the “city-voter” has distinguished between the true leader and those riding on his popularity!

A “no” vote for the status quo that exists?

A final word on this “gun and goon culture” that we’ve seen continuously rising in the cities, which raised its ugly head last week on the day of the elections; to which the city-voter also appears to have responded with franchise.

Whilst beautifying cities and widening roads are most welcome it is an immediate need to listen to this city-dweller who is also asking for equality of treatment as a human being and discipline in society by all!

It is this same city-dweller that is brushed off the road with over powered security details of VIP’s that appear to be breeding in numbers; made to queue-up for hours to get anything done whilst some “wannabe big-shot” appears from nowhere in a duty-free SUV and gets it done; bribery and corruption appear to be the order of the day replacing honesty, integrity and gentlemanliness; where the labourer whose only abode at the end of a hard day is a 4’-8’ room housing an entire family is pulled out at gun-point and that house is demolished with no recourse to procedure established by law; similarly the “white-collar” executive who may have worked for months on a commercial transaction is suddenly replaced by “someone known to someone” in the hierarchy who “deals it away” with no adherence to protocol or regulations; the hardworking youngster who writhes way to a nightclub in the city to unwind his week’s stress has to either play second-fiddle or is simply brushed aside by some high-flying VIP who arrives there with armies of “guards” (accompanied by hosts of freeloaders riding on their ticket) and perhaps even wants to have their way with your own girlfriend.

All of this is not seen or experienced in the village but is constantly faced by these city-folk. As such whilst the village may be easily hoodwinked by their so called “representatives” who enjoy their spoils in the cities during the week but retire to their innocent, unsuspecting vote-base on the weekend to open some culvert or by-road, the city-dweller is not so easily taken in by this charade; that city-voter has now spoken, which is indeed music to the ear; SPEAK my dear comrade, brother and friend, SPEAK more! May your Polisocionomic thought be HEARD loud and clear and acted upon by those whom you have placed your sovereign vote on, in trust, to govern and lead you in the true and noble art of good governance, by RULE subject to LAW!

(The author is a practitioner in Sri Lanka. Having passed out as an Attorney in May 2000, he obtained a Master’s Degree in Laws (Hons) from King’s College, London and completed a pupillage of a Barrister in London. He also holds a Bachelor’s Degree (BA) in Pol. Science, Int. Relations & Journalism from the University of Colombo and a Postgraduate Diploma (Hons) in Int. Relations & Pol. Science from the BCIS. He is a life member of the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL), member of the International Bar Association (IBA) & formerly of the Association of Sri Lankan Lawyers, UK (ASLLUK). He was awarded the ‘Outstanding Young Persons’ (TOYP) for legal accomplishment in 2008. He may be contacted on [email protected] for any clarification of his writings.)