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"It appears that our people have finally arisen to their true potential, as the mighty and powerful holders of absolute sovereign power of this great nation that our forefathers have bestowed on us. It is time I believe that we permitted our people to benefit, finally, from the toils of their everyday struggles and to that end; it will be the duty of all political parties to learn valuable lessons from these results. The time may also be right for those inclined to give leadership to this struggle (thus far dissuaded by the status quo that existed) to rise up and take the challenge – to “... be the difference you want to see...”"
The ruling UPFA regime claims victory (having won both provinces) but so do several Opposition parties; thus it calls upon us for an analysis of the result to see if perhaps there is more to it than what meets the eye. If we place Saturday’s outcome of the Western and Southern PC’s on the much quoted Gettysburg address of President Lincoln’s, then it appears that the Sri Lankan people have clearly made a proclamation to their present government, that in their opinion the incumbent regime is no longer – (1) of the people … or (2) by the people … or (3) for the people ... or a combination thereof. They have expressed similar sentiments to the opposition parties as well, with heavy losses to the traditional opposition UNP but substantial gains for the newly formed Democratic Party (DP) and the resurgent JVP under its new charismatic leader.
So this is a good point at which to launch our customary analysis of this election result (see Figures I and II below for 2009 and 2014 breakdown), bearing in mind that as a continuing student of this ever dynamic science, I call it as I see it; it is not an indictment on any particular person, party or philosophy but my humble theory of what it is (or ought to be) from an “idealistic approach”; in full appreciation of course (and in no manner naïve) of the disintegrating “political realism” we observe daily eating into our fabric of socio-political life.
The people have lost faith in old politics
Remember the 2009 elections were centred round military victories over terrorism, but now the demand is for a moderate everyday life as civilians; it is only natural that we will expect ordinary conditions associated with a democratic way of life; both in a government that administers us as indeed the Opposition that should keep such administration “in check”. What is apparent in the above sentiments is that the voter appears to be dissatisfied with both and they are searching to fill that vacuum.
Substantial losses are incurred by the ruling UPFA across the electorates, 12 seats in the West and five in the South – the 64% garnered in the WP in 2009 has depleted sharply to 53% only; in fact the total number of the collective opposition (46 seats – leaving out the two co-aligned SLMC) leave them only 10 short of a majority. This is the same in the South where 67% last time has fallen to 58% today with the drop in actual numbers over 1,00,000 voters; there is very little merit therefore of the incumbent regime basking in any glory for it is in fact a considerable defeat! As the drop of 4% of polling in the South is in contrast to the 3% increase who polled in the West, attempts to belittle this result as an “unimportant election” is rebutted by the high turnout of voters, rather uncommon in fact for such a provincial election; indeed this was never fought on such “localised issues”(such as sanitation or education) but on national issues like economic upliftment and infrastructure development (as claimed by the Government) and even international issues marketed as “foreign interventions” or “UN/Geneva-phobia”.
The traditionally main opposition UNP continues its losing trend in general taking a similar battering at the hands of the voter; however there is an overall stability noted by not incurring further losses in most areas. The significant gains noted in a couple of isolated electorates (primarily due to localised energetic leadership) have not been converted to more due to their internal party-politics and they have therefore been unable to capitalise on the UPFA loss. They also fought this election under what was termed a “Leadership Council” which the people appear to have rejected; as several council members themselves have lost substantial numbers in their own electorates from 2009, the Opposition Leader losing over 5,000 votes in his area of Colombo Central and losses in Maharagama of over 4,000. In contrast though the younger “leader in waiting” Sajith Premadasa, MP has battled in the backyard of the incumbent Head of State and his family (Hambantota) where many development activities were centred (new airport, harbour, roads etc); however he has not just consolidated his position but increased the UNP vote substantially, from 61,454 to 79,829 with a phenomenal increase of over 12,000 in his electorate of Tissamaharama. Surely this is a message in bold font on a sky-sign if anyone is really watching!
The people have gone with “new kids on the block”
The most interesting change is noted with the losses by the mainstream parties to emerging “new blood” infused into politics; a very healthy turn for the future.
Let us take the JVP first. You may recall that some pundits had already sounded the final rites and complete annihilation of this socialist-based group, following several recent defeats. The JVP shed their former alliances (2004 PA and subsequently DNA) and decided to go on their own. Under their former leader they just managed to save a solitary seat in 2009 (North Western-Wayamba) PC polls, lost their place as a “third force” and were written off by many as a bygone. However they kept fighting the odds, addressing the people always; they changed their leadership in wonderful fashion of emotion and embrace (where other parties are still squabbling inside for leadership) and masterminded a change which we hardly felt; for the first time they presented their own policy on governance (previously it was with coalition parties) and their resurgence under this new and energetic leadership of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, MP is almost cinematographic; it shows that the people have “heard them”. We have noted the young leader is fearless enough to “call a spade – a spade”; at most times he is seen taking on the role of “opposition leader” in the Legislature; he has managed in a few months to address commerce and industry issues with the business community (matters untouched by the “old left” who still await the rise of the proletariat); but he has done so without damaging the fabric of what the JVP stands for; the liberation of the People – and the People have responded in their numbers!
The JVP has reclaimed their place as the third force in the South with five seats and in the West they have increased their votes by over 1,00,000 (from 56,384 in 2009 and three seats to 1,63,352 and six seats now); they are at a place where the Republic requires a cogent opposition now, so we wish you well JVP and remain confident that you will deliver as you have done in the past, when the “remote control” was in your hands!
There cannot be any other living definition of unstinted perseverance in contemporary history than former army commander, Gen. (Retd.) Sarath Fonseka. From hero to zero overnight, imprisonment and court-martialled by those his junior, left with umpteen court proceedings to handle, unsure of his own civic status after losing his parliamentary seat; surely this must be that stoic willpower that spelt doom to the forces of terror against whom he went to war. In an admirable time of just months since forming a new party (DP) he has kept on consolidating his vote-base, victory after victory. Even in the political arena things were not made easy for the DP; they were singled out and denied stage-pace to hold a meeting in Hambantota; when meeting places were refused in other places (not so for other parties) they improvised by converting a truck into a mobile political platform but even that was prevented from being parked by the police at times; but the soldier battled on and has emerged in an admirable third place in the West with nine seats and over 200,000 people voting for his party!
Such success will automatically bring danger in the political battlefield, where his enemy will not come in camouflage brandishing AK47 rifles but bearing gifts in full evening dress; so the DP must learn quickly now to adapt and become politically astute in statecraft, which we have seen lacking at times. As a leader the retired general who has won our admiration for his heroism must now also win our hearts by altering his customary military routine, from “yours is not to question why, but do or die” mentality to a more congenial dialogue of engaging with people; keeping them close (particularly your foes) even though it may be unpalatable at times. This will be needed to serve the People on the long-run and it is for that reason the People have vested their trust in the DP; this must be preserved at any cost if the country is to gain.
The wrath of the urban voter – what have these people told us?
It is a fact that highly-urbanised cities like Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara in the Western PC (as indeed several neighbouring suburbs) or even townships like Galle and Matara in the South have seen rapid infrastructure development like roads, buildings, etc., but these are the very places where the ruling UPFA have lost big chunks of voters – why? The people have categorically told everyone that they are much more intelligent than what they were taken to be; that whilst infrastructure development may be important they are not naive to the massive corruption these projects hide; that concrete alone will not sway their vision to be governed well, according to law and in democratic fashion; where everyone will be treated equally and have equal opportunity to lawfully exploit the nations resources. With this result the People have also stated categorically that they will not sell their sovereign right for a lunch-packet or TV set any longer (they may very well accept it – but voting for such “donor” is entirely a different thing). Thankfully they have also looked beyond “super-star politicians” as appears from the massive rejection of both actresses in the South, from the UPFA and UNP; in short, the people have finally rejected the gloss and seen the face behind the makeup.
It has been customary in these intermittent discourses to quote something from political history, and I should like to repeat two quotes but this time, with a positive outlook for the future –
Plato – “the price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men ...”
Gandhi – “... I obey only one dictator – that is the voice of my conscience ...”
It appears that our people have finally arisen to their true potential, as the mighty and powerful holders of absolute sovereign power of this great nation that our forefathers have bestowed on us. It is time I believe that we permitted our people to benefit, finally, from the toils of their everyday struggles and to that end; it will be the duty of all political parties to learn valuable lessons from these results. The time may also be right for those inclined to give leadership to this struggle (thus far dissuaded by the status quo that existed) to rise up and take the challenge – to “... be the difference you want to see...”
Power to the people!
