Friday Nov 15, 2024
Friday Nov 15, 2024
Saturday, 27 September 2014 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
Today in Uva the UPFA has registered only 1+% less than that performance of JRJ. Furthermore, the losing Opposition candidate Kobbekaduwa scored just under 40%. That is just 1+% less than the UNP got in Uva. 
In 1994, after 17 turbulent years, UNP candidate Srima Dissanayake, the traumatised yet courageous widow of assassinated UNP leader Gamini Dissanayake, secured 38+% for her party. Today, fighting against a regime that has been in office for two decades, the UNP has secured only 2% more in Uva.
My point is that at a presidential election Mahinda can win and Ranil will lose, even on the basis of the Uva result. As 1982 showed, it is the candidate that is crucial at a presidential election. Ranil would be the equivalent of Kobbekaduwa while Mahinda’s performance would be the replay of JR in late 1982.
Who would the voter rather have a plain tea with?
The Americans call it “the beer test”. Who would you rather have a beer with? That, it is said, is the crucial question at a presidential election. In Sri Lanka the equivalent would be a plain tea. Who would the voter rather have a plain tea with: Mahinda or Ranil? 
Within the UNP’s ranks, who would the voter rather have a plain tea with – Ranil or Sajith? I think that Mervyn de Silva Journalist of the Year award winner Dharisha Bastian’s last report from the Uva campaign where she wrote something to the effect that “the crowds went wild when ‘Punchi Premadasa’ arrived”, answers that question. Even if Sajith sidesteps or is overlooked, who would the voter rather have a plain tea with: Ranil or Karu? I think the latter.
Remember that the decisive difference between Ranasinghe Premadasa and Sirimavo Bandaranaike in 1988 was the two and half lakhs scored by Ossie Abeygoonesekara. Who would the JVP be willing to consider as a common candidate – Ranil? I rather doubt it. Who would be the UNP candidate who could pull back the vote that has gone to the JVP, and thereby be a de facto common candidate; a common candidate ‘from below’? Probably Sajith, as Ranil is the least capable of doing either.
UNP will do best under a new, dynamic, younger candidate
Harin Fernando’s performance as well as the JVP’s doubling of its vote under AKD’s leadership shows that the UNP will do best under a new, dynamic, younger candidate. That cannot be anyone other than Sajith because of the nationwide name recognition factor he enjoys, mainly thanks to the people’s warm memories of his father.
What if Maithripala Senanayake or Vijaya Kumaratunga had been the candidate in December 1982, instead of Hector Kobbekaduwa? If the UNP sticks with Ranil as the candidate, it will “win the campaign and lose the election” as the American phrase goes. That happened to Hector Kobbekaduwa.
The same may happen even if Sajith or Karu is the candidate but they will score more than Ranil, inflicting a moral defeat even if they lose the vote. That in turn may be translatable into an opposition victory at the parliamentary election. If Ranil loses as visibly as Kobbekaduwa did, the Govt will definitely win the parliamentary election.
Ranil vs. Mahinda will revive the old issues
The armed forces are a new social force, akin to one of the old ‘Pancha Maha Balavegaya’. Multiplied by five, the armed forces and their families amount to 1½ 
million votes. The UNP needs a candidate with a patriotic profile to win over the rank and file armed forces members and their families. How could that possibly be Ranil? It is far likelier to be Sajith or Karu.
Ranil vs. Mahinda will revive the old issues of the war as well as the dark side of the UNP years i.e. Batalanda to Athurigiriya. How can it be an intelligent strategy to present such a target and such an opportunity? Sajith or Karu will not carry such baggage and will not be so easy a target to hit.
The dark scenario of a military intervention in the political process so as to pre-empt and outcome that may open the door to compliance with international accountability is far more likely with a Ranil candidacy. However, such a backlash is utterly unlikely if the UNP has a patriotic candidate and leader with a tough track record on the war and national sovereignty.
The UNP needs a leader/candidate that can attract SLFP votes and even crossovers in Parliament. The SLFP will cross over and UNP crossover voters will cross back to someone they can ideologically and socially identify with. Is that likely to be Ranil?
The UNP needs a candidate who has the best chance of securing the second preference vote. Indeed it needs a candidate who has a better chance of securing a second preference vote than does the incumbent. For instance, who can secure the second preference vote of those who will vote for Anura Kumara? Is it Mahinda, Ranil — or Sajith?
