Gold demand hits 4-year low in Q2 despite eager consumers: WGC

Wednesday, 21 August 2013 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Physical gold funds sell 402.2 T of gold in Q2
Central bank buying falls by 93.4 T
Jewellery, coin and bar demand rises to 1,083 T

REUTERS: Gold demand hit a four-year low in the second quarter despite surging appetite for jewellery, coins and bars, the World Gold Council said last week, as investors left bullion funds and central bank buying more than halved. April’s selloff, which saw spot gold slump $200 an ounce in two days in its sharpest slide in 30 years, and another retracement in June sent bar and coin demand to record highs, and jewellery buying to its strongest in nearly five years.

Consumer gold demand, covering jewellery, bars and coins, rose more than half to 1,083 tonnes last quarter compared with a year earlier, the WGC said. But a 402.2 ton outflow from gold-backed exchange-traded funds, popular investment products that issue securities backed by physical gold and a 93.4-tonne drop in central bank purchases knocked overall demand down 12% to a net 856.3 tons, its lowest since the second quarter of 2009. “It’s clear that this will be a down year in tonnage terms for demand,” WGC’s Managing Director for investment, Marcus Grubb, said. “The key will be how successfully that gold coming back in from the ETFs is re-absorbed by the other categories of investment and other areas that are growing strongly, like jewellery demand.” The second quarter’s heavy liquidation from gold-backed ETFs brought outflows for the year to 578.7 tonnes. The WGC said speculation that the Federal Reserve may be set to curb its bullion-friendly quantitative easing had spooked investors. Gold prices have fallen by around a fifth this year, hitting a three-year low in June of $1,180.71 an ounce. They are currently at around $1,320, some $600 below their September 2011 record high of $1,920.30 an ounce. Central bank buying has also eased, the WGC’s data showed. It said it expects official-sector purchases of 300-350 tons this year, down from 544.4 tons in 2012, after a 100-ton drop in the first half. This year’s price volatility is likely to have affected the timing of central banks’ gold buying, Grubb said. Consumer demand soars ETF liquidation and lower central bank demand outweighed a broad-based surge in consumer buying. India and China, by far the largest consumers of physical gold, saw demand for jewellery, coins and bars soar by 71% to 310.0 tons and 87% to 275.7 tons respectively.

China was the biggest market for gold bars and coins, demand for which more than doubled in India and China. India led jewellery demand, with consumption of 188.0 tons. Global jewellery demand for gold, which has fallen in recent years as higher bullion prices deterred buyers, rose more than a third in the second quarter to 575.5 tons. In the Middle East, demand for jewellery increased by a third, and coins and bar offtake by two-thirds. Turkish consumer demand rose 73% to 64.3 tons. US jewellery demand rose 2% to 20.3 tons, its second successive quarterly increase after it climbed for the first time since 2005 in the first three months of the year. “Some of that is due to the impact of lower prices, but it’s also due to the impact of a gradually improving economy in the United States,” Grubb said. “We do expect that turnaround in the US to continue.” US coin and bar demand nearly doubled to 24.3 tons, while European bar and coin demand rose 14% to 85.8 tons. Jewellery demand softened a touch in Europe, however, with declines reported in the UK and Italy.

On the other side of the market, gold supply fell to 1,025.5 tons from 1,087.9 tons in the second quarter of last year. Mine supply rose 18.2 tons to 717.2 tons, but flows of scrap gold onto the market dropped by a fifth to 308.3 tons as prices fell, giving sellers less incentive to cash in. “That’s the weakest recycling number we’ve had for many quarters, and it reflects the price action in April,” said Grubb.