EIU continues to bet on SLPP victories in Presidential and General elections

Monday, 21 January 2019 01:05 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Indicating the collapse of the current Government later this year, the UK-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to predict victory by Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) candidates at the next Presidential and General elections.

This forecast is despite the EIU in 2014 getting its prediction wrong when it said the then incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa is likely to win the 2015 election. The outcome, however, was Maithripala Sirisena emerging victorious.

Mahinda Rajapaksa

In its latest Country Report, generated on 7 January, the EIU said it expects early elections to be called in late 2019 and forecasts that the SLPP will win the largest number of seats. In the election run-up, the Government will remain weak and the political scene unstable. “Although the next Parliamentary elections are not due until mid-2020, we expect these to be brought forward to late 2019. Whenever they are held, we believe that the SLPP will win the largest number of seats and form a government,” EIU said.

It recalled that the SLPP’s landslide victory in the February 2018 Local elections illustrated its popularity and indicates strong anti-incumbency sentiment. “The recent unconstitutional actions may have hurt the party’s popularity with the electorate, but we do not expect this to have a significant impact.

We continue to forecast an SLPP victory in the next elections,” EIU emphasised. Noting that following the passage of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution in 2015, Rajapaksa cannot run for the Presidency, but the position of Prime Minister is open to him, EIU said: “We expect a close associate or relative of Rajapaksa to win the Presidential election, which is due by late 2019.”

The EIU also believes that, although the political crisis has ended, the remainder of the Government’s term will be marked by ongoing risks to political stability, and tensions between the Executive and Legislature will persist and impede government effectiveness in 2019.

“Furthermore, the inability of different levels of government to work together, owing to stark ideological divisions, will hurt political stability. A UNP-led administration is likely to be fragile, relying on the support of minority parties outside the Government, and would have little chance of holding on until the end of its term. We expect the Government to collapse by late 2019, owing to its weak parliamentary position and ongoing political squabbling, prompting early elections,” EIU said.

“We forecast that an SLPP-led administration will come to office after the elections, which will bring much needed stability to Sri Lanka’s political environment,” it added.