EIU on implications of today’s poll

Saturday, 16 November 2019 00:01 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

The Economist Intelli-gence Unit (EIU) has made known its views on the implications of the outcome of today’s Presidential Poll.

Commenting on elections, EIU’s Lead Country Analyst for Sri Lanka Sarthak Gupta said: “The 2019 Sri Lankan Presidential Elections are likely to be a vote of the majority against the minority.”

“Gotabaya Rajapaksa, backed by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, the Sinhalese-Buddhist nationalist party, is predicted to win on the back of the party’s popularity among the majority 70% Buddhist population,” she added. “If as we expect, Gotabaya Rajapaksa wins the presidency, relations with the West and India would suffer,” Gupta said.

It was pointed out that Gotabaya, who is known to be more China leaning than Indian, has already said that he will pull out of the country’s commitments under the 2015 deal with the UN on post-war accountability and reconciliation.

“This,” Gupta, said “is likely to hurt relations with the US who has always urged Sri Lanka to properly investigate alleged human rights violations committed by the Sri Lanka military during the final months of the civil war.”

“Relations with the EU will also come under strain, which might lead to the trading bloc revoking Sri Lanka’s preferential market access under its GSP+ (Generalised System of Preferences +) scheme. Fiscal risks will also likely rise under another Rajapaksa president as the country is likely to borrow heavily for more China-backed infrastructure projects,” Gupta added.

She noted that under another Rajapaksa president, fiscal risks will rise as the country is likely to borrow heavily for more China-backed infrastructure projects.

“Currently Sri Lanka is facing heavy fiscal strains owing to large repayments associated with huge infrastructure debt, which was incurred during Mahinda Rajapaksa’s second term as president (2010-2015). A prolonged economic slowdown and weak external sector has significantly increased sovereign risk for the country over the past two years,” EIU’s Lead Country Analyst for Sri Lanka observed.