Presidential race tightens as minorities seek to stop Rajapaksa

Reuters: Sri Lankans elect a new president today in a “finely-balanced” race between the early favourite, former Defence Chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and Government Minister Sajith Premadasa, who has gained momentum in recent weeks.

The election comes amid a deep slump in the country following Easter Sunday attacks on hotels and churches by Islamist militants that killed over 250 people and sharpened tensions between majority Sinhalese and minority Muslims.

Added to that are long-standing grievances of ethnic Tamils, who say they are still to get justice stemming from the human rights violations during a 26-war civil war with Tamil rebels, especially at the closing stages when a UN panel says around 40,000 people were killed.

Gotabaya, who oversaw the military rout of Tamil fighters under his brother and then President Mahinda Rajapaksa, has campaigned on a platform of national security, playing on the fears of Sinhalese Buddhists following the April attacks claimed by Islamic State.

Premadasa has sought to fire up the countryside with promises of free housing, schools uniforms for students and sanitary pads for women – touching on a topic rarely discussed in public but which has drawn women to his rallies. Both the frontrunners in a field of 35 candidates said they will seek a balance in Sri Lanka’s political and economic ties with China and India that have competed for influence in the island that sits near busy shipping lanes.

However, Rajapaksa and his family are seen closer to China, which has led post-civil war reconstruction.

There are no opinion polls but political strategists in the two main campaigns, the minority parties and political analysts say the race has become much closer in recent weeks.

Initially, Rajapaksa was strongly favoured but Premadasa is seen to have closed in on him in the final two weeks of the campaign, they say.

An internal assessment shared by a Government Minister who is supporting the Premadasa campaign shows an edge over Rajapaksa after initially trailing him. But Keheliya Rambukwella, the Spokesman for the Rajapaksa campaign, told Reuters on Friday the team was confident of winning.

The election is now “finely-balanced” between the two frontrunners, Eurasia said in a note. While Gotabaya is banking on the support of the Sinhalese, Premadasa has been assured the support of Tamil parties who strongly oppose a return of the Rajapaksas.

Muslims are also concerned they would be targeted in large-scale surveillance and raids that a Gotabaya presidency might bring.

“The prospect of a new Rajapaksa presidency has heightened ethnic tensions and raised fears among minorities and democratic activists,” said Alan Keenan from the International Crisis Group.

About 16 million people are eligible to vote on Saturday with the ballot allowing voters to choose up to three candidates in order of preference.

Votes will be counted soon after polling stations close that evening but the results are not expected before Sunday.

Anyone who gets over 50% of votes as first choice will win. If there is no clear winner, authorities will hold a second round of counting to determine the winner through preference votes.

One of the challenges the new president will face is to service Sri Lanka’s foreign debt, which stands at 45% of its gross domestic product.

A quarter of the debt is owned to China, which has raised fears of a loss of sovereignty after Sri Lanka was forced to hand over control of the giant Hambantota Port in a debt-for-equity swap with Beijing in 2017.

“The management of debt is going to be a challenge, we are still paying down the interest on the loans we have taken, we have to start paying the principal, the repayments will rise,” said Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne who is on Premadasa’s campaign.

Growth hit a 17-year low of 3.2% in 2018, and the IMF has forecast expansion to fall to 2.7% in 2019 as the Easter Sunday attacks dented tourism and broader business activity.

“Given the headwinds facing the economy, we think growth will struggle whoever wins,” said Capital Economics in a note. There might be a slight nudge if Rajapaksa wins, reflecting prospect of an upturn in Chinese investment because of his family’s close ties with Beijing, it said.

The Presidential Election, by numbers and issues

Reuters: Sri Lanka will pick a new president in a vote today that comes months after Easter Sunday attacks by Islamic State that raised fears over the safety of the tiny island, undermined investor confidence and choked its economy.

How is the 

president elected?

About 16 million citizens are eligible to choose from 35 candidates on the ballot. The candidate who obtains over 50% of the votes will win the presidency. The ballot also allows voters to choose their three top candidates in order of preference, which will determine the winner if no candidate secures over half the first place votes.

The Presidential...

Those preferences will be used to tally votes for the top two candidates to decide the winner. Such a process has not happened in previous elections because one candidate has always crossed the 50% mark.

Who are the key candidates?

Former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Housing Minister Sajith Premadasa are the two top candidates in a race involving 35 candidates.

Rajapaksa draws his support from Sinhalese Buddhists, who account for 70% of the country’s 22 million people. Premadasa is seen to have built his base in the countryside and is counting on votes from less affluent Sinhalese, and minority Tamil and Muslim communities.

What are the campaign issues?

Gotabaya has promised an overhaul of national security to stop any more attacks after the Easter bombings on hotels and churches. Premadasa has offered giveaways such as free housing, school uniforms and sanitary napkins for women.

Who is likely to win?

There are no opinion polls. But political analysts say the race between Gotabaya and Premadasa has become close and that it could go either way. Rajapaksa, backed by members of his powerful family including his brother and ex-President Mahinda Rajapaksa, was seen as the favourite early on, but Premadasa’s campaign has picked up momentum in the last two weeks.

Voting, counting procedures

People can cast votes from 7 a.m. on Saturday (2300 GMT Friday) until 5 p.m. and counting will start soon after the end of voting. The results of postal votes will be announced first. With a record 26-inch long ballot paper to accommodate a large number of candidates and possible second counting of preferential votes, the counting is expected to take more time than previous elections. Officials do not expect the final results until early Monday.