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Friday, 2 November 2012 03:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
By Cheranka Mendis
It will take slightly longer than the anticipated 2016 for Sri Lanka to achieve the targeted 2.5 million tourist arrivals, renowned Hospitality Consultant and HVS South Asia Chairman Manav Thadani opined on Wednesday, sharing his insights into the Sri Lankan hotel market at a presentation hosted by Jetwing Hotels.
Thadani noted that even though Sri Lanka has a shot at improving, the buildup will take a few years longer than 2016 to bring in the anticipated 2.5 million tourists.
“My question is whether you will get to 2.5 million in four years; I question that number,” he said, addressing the media. “I think you will get to 2.5 million, maybe not by 2015 but by 2020.”
Asserting that the industry must be more realistic, he said that for the country to welcome the targeted number, an additional 33,000 rooms were needed, adding that if they are to be ready by 2015, they should be under construction now.
“I don’t see the country being able to get the rooms, to get to the target in the next four years. It is the story of the chicken and the egg, what comes first – rooms or business?” Thadani queried. “It is not that we are not going there,” he added. “A lot has been done but there is still more to do.”
Presenting a visitation model to project tourist arrivals by 2016 by identifying competition set and source markets and calculating Sri Lanka’s market share in 2011 to arrive at 2016 forecasts by market share, Thadani noted that the country could reach the goal of 2.5 million if market penetration almost doubles from the 0.67% in 2011 to 1.29% by 2016.
According to his forecasts, by 2016 total arrivals are an estimated 1,934,968 with a market share of 1% in the total foreign arrivals to competition set estimated at 193,496,756. In 2011 the total foreign arrivals to competition set was 127,463,514, whereas the foreign arrivals to Sri Lanka was at 855,975. Market share in 2011 was 0.67%.
