Disruption from Trump 2.0

Next week, President-elect Donald Trump will assume office to begin his second term as the 47th President of the USA. The Republican Party has now got control over all three branches of political power in Washington DC – the Executive, Senate, and the House of Representatives – providing a huge boost to the maverick Trump’s policy agenda. 

How the Manhattan-based real estate mogul was able to re-enter the White House despite being a convicted felon would be a puzzle for many. The American voters’ perception of the incumbent Joe Biden being too weak and frail to become commander-in-chief of the most powerful State in the world immensely aided Trump’s re-election bid. In the past, the replacement of an outgoing US President by a successor from an opposing party did not cause much anxiety among nations across the world, as there were no significant policy deviations from one administration to another. However, given Trump’s extremist and populist views and the chaos and turbulence he created during his first term, the powerful international organisations as well as the influential countries are in a state of unease as to how Trump 2.0 would unfold.

Many American commentators have speculated that Trump 2.0 would attempt to implement the action plans mentioned in the blueprint Project 2025 – a policy agenda developed by the conservative US think tank Heritage Foundation for implementation by an incoming Republican President. In spite of disassociating with Project 2025 during the campaign trail and the people involved with it, the septuagenarian has selected numerous individuals who were involved with preparing the controversial blueprint for key positions in his administration. The policy plan entails a complete overhaul of the existing frameworks with regard to immigration, abortion, foreign policy, climate action as well as LGBT rights. Certain activist groups and Liberals have described the hotly debated action plan as a roadmap to replace the rule of law in the US with ring-wing ideals.

In terms of the US foreign policy during Trump’s second term, the focus would be on how Washington would handle its dealings with the rising Asian power China because the former Reality TV show host’s first term was marked by an intense rivalry with Beijing, manifested by far-reaching tariffs on Chinese exports to the US apart from the enactment of stringent restrictions on technology exports, cultural exchanges and investments linked to China. Trump has raised the prospect of a confrontational approach towards the Asian State with the nomination of the noted China hardliner cum Florida Senator Marco Rubio for the post of Secretary of State. Rubio has been an advocate for US visa sanctions on Chinese officials and has supported Taiwan, the democratically-governed island China claims as its own, while leading calls for a free trade deal with the territory and unhindered interaction between US officials and counterparts of Taiwan. 

Ironically though, when Michael Pompeo – the US Secretary of State during Trump’s first term – visited Sri Lanka in 2020, the JVP – the ideological parent of the ruling NPP alliance – staged a protest outside the US Embassy and accused the US of attempting to interfere in the internal affairs of the country. The present Health Minister Nalinda Jayatissa and Transportation Minister Bimal Ratnayake even handed over a letter addressed to the US Ambassador, expressing condemnation towards the alleged US Government’s efforts to interfere with the independence and sovereignty of Sri Lanka. 

With the JVP-inspired NPP occupying the Government and the re-entry of a potential antagonistic foreign policy in Washington towards China, it would be interesting to observe how US-Sri Lanka ties would evolve as the prominent NPP/JVP leaders have historically maintained close ties with the Chinese Communist Party. The complexity of the relations between Washington and Colombo would invariably heighten as China is Sri Lanka’s largest bilateral creditor together with the geo-political rivalries between China and QUAD – the diplomatic partnership convening Australia, Japan, India, and the US.