From change to continuity

Last year was a year of transformation not only in Sri Lanka but everywhere in the world. The year 2024 is considered as the biggest election year in modern history, as more than 60 democracies across the globe held national elections. 

Voters in some of the most influential countries in the world – India, the UK, France, Indonesia, and the US – took part in national elections in the calendar year which ended yesterday. Apart from Indonesia and India, all other countries witnessed a change of guard in terms of political leadership and direction. 

With regard to the South Asian region, the Narendra Modi-led BJP recorded their third General Election victory in a row. Incidentally, the incumbent Indian Premier became only the second Premier in the history of India to secure a third consecutive term via people’s mandate after the first Prime Minister of India late Jawaharlal Nehru. In Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif – the brother of former PM Nawaz Sharif – was re-elected amidst observers claiming that the election was marred by rigging and intimidation. In Bangladesh, however, Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule came to an end following the student movements-led uprising against her administration, and the present interim government of the South Asian State is headed by the renowned Nobel laureate cum reputed economist Muhammad Yunus. 

Globally, the biggest disruption during this year is expected to take place due to the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House on the 20th of this month. Trump’s first term was noted for an intense trade war with Beijing, during which he imposed a number of tariff barriers and other trade restrictions on products made by Chinese companies. Throughout the presidential election, the septuagenarian’s campaign vowed to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Further, the President-elect had threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada. If the US follows through with Trump’s proposed tariff measures, it could pave the way for a damaging conflict characterised by disruptions in trade as well as strained economic ties between the powerful countries in the world. Retaliatory measures from targeted countries in response to the possible actions of protectionism by Washington could severely strain international trade relationships.

Nevertheless, despite the likelihood of a trade war under Trump, there are expectations he would use his perceived friendly relationship with Vladimir Putin to bring about a settlement to the war in Ukraine. But some fear that Trump might let down the beleaguered Eastern European State by cutting down financial assistance. The maverick politician’s views on international affairs contravene the established norms and conventions of the international world order apart from disregarding the bipartisan consensus prevalent among Capitol Hill on the role of the US in the realm of internationalism. Unlike former US Presidents, the former reality TV Star has repeatedly demonstrated a lukewarm attitude towards NATO – the critical military alliance among States in Europe and North America. His pre-election rhetoric was filled with threats of withdrawing from the transatlantic coalition, to which the US is the main contributor.

On the home front though, a seismic shift took place last year in terms of political power with a group of individuals who had not occupied the nucleus of political authority before taking command. Following two years of intense negotiations, the recent successful conclusion of the restructuring of international sovereign bonds represents a major breakthrough in terms of the island’s economic recovery. With the credit rating upgrade by both Moody’s and Fitch, we are no longer a bankrupt state. The heightened political stability as a result of the NPP’s thumping victory at the Parliamentary election provides the foundation for growth besides enhancing prospects to attract foreign direct investments.

Let us all hope that 2025 will be a game changer in Sri Lanka’s destiny, marking the beginning of a new chapter in transforming the fortunes of islanders.