Mandate against the establishment

21 September 2024 marked a watershed moment in the history of the island. The election of NPP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake as President of Sri Lanka represented a seismic shift in the political landscape. His victory was propelled by the anger and frustration of the polity towards the mainstream political parties. 

The widespread plea to change the political system of the country by electing a group of individuals who had not occupied the nucleus of political power before resonated well with the electorate, particularly the South. 

The 2022 Aragalaya provided the foundation for the victory of AKD. The landmark victory was primarily driven by the Sinhalese voters (both Buddhists and Christians) and quite a number of Muslims too joined hands with the NPP in ushering a new political leadership. Even though, AKD did not obtain a lot of support from Tamils, the NPP Leader polled a higher number of votes from the minority community in every part of the country compared to his performance at the 2019 Presidential election.

One aspect which has been overlooked by many commentators is the transformation of the JVP towards the NPP as well as the political acumen of its brain trust. The mere mention of the three-letter acronym JVP used to frighten the upper echelons of the society apart from the business community. The creation of the NPP enabled the AKD-led JVP to increase its appeal towards social segments that previously shunned them. The new outfit attracted activists, professionals, academics, feminists, and Colombo-based socialites that resulted in an expansion of its vote base, which was hitherto confined to student activists, trade unionists and full-time party cadres. The resilience shown by the JVP stalwarts in striving towards this victory needs to be commended. The former militant movement was virtually decimated in 1989 and it had to be rebuilt from scratch. In 2012, the Marxist party suffered a huge setback when a large faction of its members broke away and formed the Frontline Socialist Party.

The NPP also conducted a very meticulous and professional campaign which their opponents could not match. The campaign conveyed a clear, unified theme with a slogan that captivated the minds of floating voters. The extensive focus on issues such as good governance, corruption, wastage, and accountability captured the conscience of middle-class voters. 

Despite not promising a salary hike, a substantial number of public sector employees voted for AKD. An overwhelming number of teachers in government schools extended their support towards the new President at the polls, primarily driven by the NPP’s promise to make teaching among the top 10 professions in the public service. It would be interesting to see whether they could walk the talk on some of those ambitious pledges.

The biggest loser of this election appears to be Opposition Leader cum SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa. Upper middle-class voters find his style of politics based on offering freebies extremely unpleasant and the twice-defeated Presidential candidate has a very weak following among educated professionals in the country. AKD’s Presidential bid was based on the assurance of cleaning up the system while Ranil Wickremesinghe highlighted the leadership he provided over the last two years to turnaround the economy from the depths of despair. On the other hand, Premadasa’s campaign had no clear narrative apart from lacking creativity and depth.

The Opposition Leader’s support base is predominantly drawn from the underclass in shanty towns, rural and estate poor in addition to hard core, elderly UNPers. The presence of politicians with tainted reputations like Nalaka Godahewa, Sujeewa Senasnghe, and Thilanga Sumathipala within his camp did not help his cause either. 

Instead of developing a solid machinery and network of supporters to launch a successful election, the son of Sri Lanka’s second Executive President was distributing buses and various items over the last two years. His party might have good economists but lacks shrewd tacticians who can diligently diagnose the socio-political realities.