Much rests on how Govt. balances Indo-Sino relations

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is on a four-day state visit to the People’s Republic of China. The visit comes a month after his first overseas visit since assuming office to neighbouring India. For any Sri Lankan leader, it’s a challenge to strike a balance in the country’s relations with the two competing Asians giants. For President Dissanayake, it’s only the beginning of this tightrope walk.  

One of India’s main issues of concern is its security interests in the Indian Ocean. The year-long ban on foreign research vessels visiting Lankan waters ended on 31 December. The moratorium was introduced in late 2023 after New Delhi raised alarms about a Chinese research vessel conducting a joint maritime survey with Sri Lanka’s maritime agency. The President’s visit to China comes as his Government seeks to balance India’s security concerns with China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean. 

The joint statement issued after President Dissanayake’s visit to India in December stated emphatically Sri Lanka’s position of not permitting its territory to be used in any manner inimical to the security of India as well as towards regional stability.

“As natural partners, both leaders underscored the common challenges faced by the two countries in the Indian Ocean Region and reaffirmed their commitment to work together in countering traditional and non-traditional threats as well as to ensure a free, open, safe and secure Indian Ocean Region,” the statement said.

While the President’s India visit was showcased as a success, there was much diplomatic wrangling over what the Lankan President would commit to during his visit there. Though the India side pressed for finalisation of several projects, the Lankan side sought more time on energy, trade sector agreements. However, with China, the Government seems to be less hesitant. Among the MoUs to be signed on the President’s visit is one to enter into agreements with Chinese media institutions for capacity building involving the Government Information Department as well as State-run print and electronic media institutes. This will be in addition to several other agreements which are expected to be signed during the visit.The agreement with China on the State sector media institutes has already drawn concerns from media rights organisations. They fear such agreements will pave the way for foreign influence over Sri Lanka’s media institutes. Sri Lanka traditionally has had close ties with both India and China and managed a fine balance until 1977 when the West leaning presidency of J.R. Jayewardene caused more than a few hiccups, particularly with India. After Chandrika Bandaranaike took over in 1994, she managed to get relations with both countries back on track and up until Mahinda Rajapaksa’s second term in 2010 during which his administration ignored Indian concerns and entered into mega projects with China much to the disquiet of its closest neighbour.

However, after the economic crisis gripped the country in 2022, India’s generous assistance salvaged the country from getting into a worse economic mess than it was already in. This put Indo-Lanka relations back on a solid footing with China’s influence seemingly on the wane.However, with the election of President Dissanayake, concern was raised that the country would once again tilt towards China. However the President has repeatedly said that the country would in no manner take any decision that would be a cause of concern for India’s security and national interests. While the words have been reassuring, President Dissanayake’s visit to Beijing will be closely watched, not only by India but also others including the US.

Through ups and downs, Indo-Lanka relations have stood firm, and Lankans know more than anyone else that upsetting big brother can be a costly mistake. In the same manner, China, which has also been a historic ally, is an important partner in its development activities and strong relations with China too are important.

For the Sri Lanka Government, the challenge is to ensure that it maintains cordial relations with both countries. For that, President Dissanayake will need a great deal of diplomatic acumen as well as solid advice from experienced diplomats. The months ahead will show how successful he is in handling this tricky situation.