President must not give in to arm-twisting by SLPP and dissolve Parliament

The guessing game on whether a Presidential or a Parliamentary election will be held first has intensified over the past few days. This despite repeated assurances from President Ranil Wickremesinghe that the Presidential poll will be held as scheduled. The Election Commission recently announced the timeline for the election with nominations and poll date between 17 September and 16 October.

At the Cabinet meeting held recently too, the President reiterated to ministers that the Presidential election will be held as scheduled and the necessary funds have been allocated for this purpose.

It’s no secret that a powerful section within the ruling SLPP has been arm-twisting the President to dissolve Parliament and go for a general election. The SLPP’s strategist-in-chief Basil Rajapaksa and his loyalists are behind the move even though a substantial number within the party are not keen to face a general election as of now and would rather await the outcome of a presidential poll before deciding what course of action to take.

Rajapaksa’s logic is that the SLPP stands a better chance of hanging on to more seats they have in the current Parliament if it is held ahead of the Presidential election probably guessing that a win for either SJB candidate Sajith Premadasa or NPP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake would lead to an immediate dissolution of Parliament and a washout for the SLPP.

The general election first drive has been propagated by Basil Rajapaksa loyalists such as Sri Lanka’s former Ambassador to Russia Udayanga Weeratunga who, in a recent televised interview, declared that Parliament would be dissolved by 14 or 15 June paving the way for a general election first. He is among those who remain staunchly loyal to Basil Rajapaksa and keen to ensure that the SLPP gets enough seats in the next Parliament so as to play kingmaker. Given the divisions within political parties at present, no party seems likely to get 113 seats that would be needed for a working majority in the House.

The President we know is caught up in a “loyalty trap” where his relationship with the SLPP is concerned. It was SLPP support that propelled him to the office of President. The other side of the story is that the SLPP and the Rajapaksas in particular had little choice but to have Wickremesinghe installed as President after Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s hasty departure. It was a self-preserving exercise more than anything else. If not for the prompt action taken by Wickremesinghe to stop the rampage taking place against ruling party MPs and their loyalists after he took office, it’s more likely than not that slain SLPP MP Amarakeerthi Athukorala may not have been the only MP to be killed by the marauding mobs that set fire and destroyed properties of many ruling party politicians. In politics, as is often the case, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests. In Sri Lanka’s case, this is clear as crystal with politicians changing loyalties more often than they change their duty-free vehicles.

The President has been branded as the protector of the Rajapaksas since he took office, and he has done little to upset those who brought him to power. However, of late, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and those close to him have begun to express their displeasure at the President for straying from SLPP policies and moving in another direction. Whether these are actual concerns or just floated around to warn the President to remain within certain limits is not clear, but the public perception is there is a growing discord between the two. These could also be a way of forcing the President to go with the SLPP leadership’s desire for an early general election.

The decision on the dissolution of Parliament rests wholly with the President given that the SLPP is unlikely to initiate a motion for Parliament to dissolve itself. Such a move will expose divisions within the SLPP and is unlikely to be backed by the Opposition.

Hence it is in the best interest of the country for the President to stand his ground on this issue. To some extent, it might redeem him in the public eye, from being labelled a protector of the Rajapaksas.