Russia will lose; Lanka should not

There is always hyperbole and embellishment in narratives that define the trajectory of world history, whether it is the 300 Spartans standing against the mighty Persian Empire to usher in the Golden Age of Greece, or the ‘free people of the world’ defeating fascism in the 20th century. 

There is no doubt Nazi Germany, fascist Italy and imperial Japan were three of the worst perpetrators of human misery in world history, yet their ‘freedom loving’ opponents were not exactly that either. Stalin’s Russia was a giant gulag where the dictator had killed at least six million of his own citizens by the time the Germans invaded. France, the United Kingdom, Netherlands and Belgium were imperial powers committing numerous crimes in occupied lands.

 During that Great War, the United States was no utopia, still segregating its people based on the colour of their skins. Be that as it may, the narrative stands and in the grander battle of ideologies and values, liberty, individual freedom and democracy triumphed over fascism. The victors of the conflict established the United Nations and an international order that recognised the sovereignty of each state, large or small and their territorial integrity against arbitrary invasion.

Today, the very foundations of this international order have been shaken by Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. The ‘whataboutism’ of NATO expansion, Ukraine’s own ethnic cleavages and that government’s democratic credentials notwithstanding, a sovereign nation has been invaded by a neighbouring superpower without any basis or provocation. That is the core element of the conflict.

The war in Ukraine is not merely a battle between two countries, pitched against each other like David and Goliath. This is a conflict between two value systems and ideologies: the people of Ukraine seek greater integration with Europe and the conditions that entail that membership - a liberal democratic government, adherence to the rule of law, independent judiciary and media and a free market economy. Vladimir Putin’s Russia has decreed that the nation of Ukraine does not exist and seeks its subjugation through territorial expansion by military conquest.

In that binary, the outcome of this war was determined even before it started. The Ukrainian people have refused to back down. Even if Russia occupies Ukraine, the resistance will refuse to die and they will bleed Russia for months and years to come. The invaders have already lost over 7,000 personnel by conservative estimates, half of all Soviet combat losses in Afghanistan during its disastrous 10-year occupation that contributed to the collapse of the USSR.

Enormous quantities of weapons are flowing into Ukraine and the Western alliance has pledged billions in assistance. The anti-West, China-Russian ‘bromance’ theory pundits predicted along with the collapse of the democratic world order and the decline of the West are yet to materialise. Instead, all indications are that Russia will come out of this conflict militarily weaker, economically broken and internationally isolated.

While such a monumental ideological conflict is taking place, Sri Lanka has clearly sided with the aggressor State. It was one of only 35 countries that abstained at a UN General Assembly which voted this month to reaffirm Ukrainian sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, core principles one would assume would resonate with Sri Lanka after its own battle with separatism. 

Even more troubling are the overt gestures of solidarity towards Russia. The state minister for regional cooperation highlighted on social media his meetings with a Russian Minister, business delegation and his participation at a Russia-Sri Lanka friendship event during the first week of the invasion. He even detailed how Sri Lanka wishes to circumvent financial sanctions against Russia by dealing in crypto currency in lieu of the dollar. Reports yet to be denied suggest Sri Lanka will be seeking to purchase Russian oil. All this, while the GoSL is yet to utter a word about the violent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The narratives of this war will be written by the victors. Irrespective of the nuances and the hyperbole it is likely to be one of perseverance and triumph of a free people who fought with the assistance of the democracies of the world against a tyrant. When that story is told, Sri Lanka, Asia’s oldest continuous democracy, will unfortunately be standing on the wrong side of history.