SL elections and international actors

Come election time, the role of several international players in local polls becomes a topic of conversation. India, China, and the USA are the ones that are most seen as having more than a casual interest in political developments in the country, given their strategic and economic interests in Sri Lanka. The guesswork goes on about which of these major international players are backing which candidate as the election date draws near.

India, the country’s closest neighbour with which Lankans have centuries-old ties, gets entangled in Lankan affairs more often than not. This time around it is no different even though the official position is that India has no preference of one candidate over another and will work with anyone elected. 

That of course is diplomatic lingo to show neutrality but some have read a lot into the response to India’s Independence Day greeting sent by SJB leader Sajith Premadasa on the social media network X (formerly Twitter). The Indian High Commissioner in Sri Lanka Santosh Jha, while thanking Premadasa for the wishes added, “Our relations are poised for greater heights!” This, some say, may be an indication that India favours the SJB candidate as the future president of the country over the others. 

India hosted a delegation led by NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake last December which also created quite a buzz. The JVP, the main partner in the National Power Party (NPP), has for a long time been staunchly anti-Indian but is now keen to be seen as India-friendly. Meanwhile, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, on his part has been pushing ahead with many India-linked projects and has also been actively canvassing a land-link with India. 

The Chinese involvement, if at all in Sri Lanka electoral process is covert with the NPP seen as a likely preference given its socialist bent, while the USA, after initial active involvement during the days of the Aragalaya, is less active, though it is likely to be working closely with India to keep abreast with the developments at this end.

There is no doubt that the foreign policy of each candidate will have long-term repercussions on the country. Most candidates have emphasised their leaning toward a non-aligned foreign policy but in reality, they tend to tilt either in favour of India or China. 

Sri Lanka has traditionally had strong ties with both countries but relations with India were strained after 1977 when the J.R. Jayewardene Government’s foreign policy became US-centric leaving India smarting. Jayewardene and his successor Ranasinghe Premadasa had bad blood with then Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and her son Rajiv Gandhi which led to an ebb in relations which recovered somewhat under former president Mahinda Rajapaksa but not to the high they once were under Sirimavo Bandaranaike.

Rajapaksa’s pro-China policy was the main reason for poor relations with India but post-COVID and the economic crisis when India came with much needed assistance for the country, relations were put on a solid footing. It’s likely whoever wins the election will ensure that the relations with its neighbour stays strong.

China too remains an important ally for Sri Lanka and has come to the country’s assistance when in need and any future leader would want to ensure that they strike a fine balance between the two Asian giants so that Sri Lanka can benefit from relations with both countries.

Sri Lanka has not had a consistent foreign policy for years, each successive Government wavering on different issues. This is one that future leaders of the country will have to address seriously. While internal policies are important, external factors often influence what happens internally. Hence cordiality with all nations is crucial to ensure stability and prosperity of the country.