The Maldives and Sino-Indo power games

One does not need to go beyond the Maldives to recognise how the nations in the Indian Ocean are feeling the heat from the geo-political rivalry between India and China. The gravity of the power games played in the archipelago by the two Asian superpowers has evolved into an alarming extent, whereby the major Maldivian political parties/coalitions, among whom the political power has changed hands over the last 15 years, is aligned with either of the two regional giants.

The political field in Male is currently undergoing a chaotic atmosphere, as its main opposition party is poised to start its efforts to impeach its recently elected President Mohamed Muizzu. The development comes after the Muizzu administration gave permission to the Chinese research ship – Xiang Yang Hong 3 – to dock in the Maldives. New Delhi has expressed concern about the potential military use of the data collected by such vessels. Interestingly, the arrival of the controversial Chinese vessel to the Maldives comes in the backdrop of Sri Lanka announcing a one-year moratorium on foreign research vessels calling at the island’s ports amidst pressure from India and the US.

Muizzu, whose campaign platform was based on the promise of expelling Indian forces from the islands, was elected President last September when he defeated former pro-India President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. Incidentally, Solih succeeded Abdulla Yameen who ruled the country till 2018 while pursuing closer relations with Beijing. The foreign policy and regional alliances have been contentious issues in the national elections of the archipelago. The Maldives serves as a classic illustration as to how a nation’s political landscape could undergo uproar due to the competing interests of the regional powers. Both India and China have competitively strived for foothold in the archipelago by investing extensively in advancing the Maldives’ infrastructure apart from providing financial assistance.

Two weeks ago, the Maldives’ Government set 15 March as the deadline for India to withdraw its military personnel from their shores. The pivot of Male towards Beijing is a setback to the Neighbourhood First Policy of the Narendra Modi administration, which focuses on peaceful relations and collaborative synergetic co-development with the South Asian neighbours of the Indian subcontinent. 

Be that as it may, adopting an overtly aggressive anti-India stance would not be in the best interest of the famous holiday destination and its citizens. In terms of both history and culture, the Maldives has been closer to India than any other country. It is estimated that around 33,000 Indians work in the construction, hospitality and retail sectors across the group of atolls. Importantly, India has always rescued its neighbour in times of great distress. In 1988, when a group of Maldivians attempted to overthrow the Male Government with the assistance of armed mercenaries of the Sri Lankan Tamil militants – PLOTE, it was the Indian Armed Forces who defeated the coup by conspirators. India also provided a significant humanitarian relief to the Maldives during the 2014 drinking water crisis in Male. As a small island nation, the country also depends on its giant neighbour for food, medicine, and healthcare needs while Indians are also the largest group of foreign visitors to the Maldives, where tourism and leisure account for almost one-third of the economy.

Smaller nations in the Indian Ocean like the Maldives and Sri Lanka are unfortunately at the receiving end of the power conflicts between India and China, who compete for influence in the neighbouring island nations, as their strategic locations are a matter of interest to the two powerful countries. Given the economic and political might of both India and China, the two South Asian Island states are compelled to walk on a tightrope in terms of handling foreign relations. Muizzu and his administration would be well advised to refrain from antagonising the world’s most populous state – given the influence it could exert on his country’s economic well-being.