Trump 2.0 or first US Woman President?

Either tomorrow or day after, the world will get to know who will lead the most powerful nation in the world over the next four years. Will Donald Trump regain the White House or is it the occasion for the first US Woman Vice President Kamala Harris to break the glass ceiling? 

Everybody around the globe is watching the outcome of this critical election with a great deal of interest given the influence of the US across the planet in all important policy aspects. The contest was initially expected to take place between the incumbent Joe Biden and his predecessor; however, the departure of the octogenarian from the race in July, as the American voters expressed concerns over his mental and physical fitness to be commander-in-chief following his appalling performance at the first presidential debate, as well as the resultant entry of Harris completely transformed the facet of the battle.

As per the latest reports coming from the US, Harris has a slight lead over her rival countrywide. However, the national polls are meaningless in respect of predicting the outcome, as the US uses a rather peculiar mechanism called the Electoral College system by which the winner is determined. Out of the 538 Electoral College votes, a candidate needs to obtain 270 votes to emerge victorious. Most of the States in America tend to vote for the candidate of the same party continuously and therefore the outcome of the poll is determined by what are called battleground states that do not have fixed affiliations with either the Republican or Democratic Party.

Despite being a convicted felon, the Manhattan-based real estate mogul has a realistic chance of regaining the White House. The prospect of him returning to the Presidency next January would definitely evoke feelings of anguish and distress among Liberals and the establishment not only in the States, but across the globe. Trump’s views and persona unsettle many, and he is considered as eccentric unlike the traditional American Presidents. For those who fight for the cause of Palestine, the septuagenarian regaining presidency could severely dent their hopes. The highly respected US political analyst Bill Schneider during Trump’s first term, described the former President as the most pro-Israel American president since Harry Truman. 

When Trump was President, many policy moves were made by his administration in favour of Israel’s interest, including moving the US Embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and withdrawing Washington from the multination Iran nuclear deal. The status of Trump as the front runner although he is a convicted criminal is simply baffling. Fire and Fury – a New York Times bestseller book which was published in 2018 – by Michael Wolff, a noted American journalist, revealed that Trump’s advisors in the White House described him as “like a child.” What kind of leadership Washington would provide to the world under the presidency of an individual who is unpredictable and impulsive while having so many skeletons in his cupboard?

Meanwhile, Liberals around the world, not only in the US, would be hoping for the victory of Harris. In 2016, the world eagerly expected Hillary Clinton to break the glass ceiling, but the shock victory of Trump broke the hearts of feminists worldwide. The advocates of women empowerment would be over the moon in the event of Harris clinching the coveted post. 

Be that as it may, compared to a possible Trump 2.0, a Harris presidency could be slightly unfavourable towards Colombo as the Vice President is a strong advocate on human rights. Moreover, the Democratic administrations are known for being tough on pursuing charges of alleged war crimes. On the other hand, pursuing freedom and human rights does not feature at all among Trump’s task list.

What would be the trajectory of ties between Washington and Colombo under Biden’s successor given that the newly elected NPP administration does not have the grace, experience, and upbringing to excel in diplomacy?