Turmoil in Bangladesh

Politics in South Asia is never short of drama and upheavals. Last Monday, in Bangladesh, the 15-year rule of Sheikh Hasina came to an end as she extended her resignation amidst widespread protests. The origin of the protest movement is traced to the decision by the Bangladesh High Court last June to restore the quota system that prevailed in terms of recruitment to the Civil Service prior to 2020. 

The quota system ensured that a specified percentage of jobs were granted to the children and grandchildren of the country’s freedom fighters who fought for the independence from Pakistan during the liberation war in 1971 as well as marginalised groups such as differently abled individuals. Over the years, students have protested against the politically controversial policy whilst demanding that jobs in the public service should be given on the basis of merit.

Consequent to the High Court judgement, the students of public and private universities and colleges in Bangladesh launched the 2024 Bangladesh Quota Reform Movement – initially focused on restructuring the discriminatory system of recruitment to government jobs, but later it was mobilised into a mass-scale agitation against the authoritarian Hasina administration when hundreds of protestors and civilians, most of whom were students, were killed by the army and police during protests.

Under Hasina, Bengalis enjoyed a long period of economic development. With an average 7% GDP growth over the past decade and not a single year of contraction over the past 30 years, the South Asian State stood tall among the emerging economies. The former Premier’s Government had an ambitious plan to become a developed nation by 2041 – which would have been an impressive achievement for a country which was frequently cited as an exemplification of extreme poverty by text books on Development Studies prior to the 21st Century. With a growing population of 166 million people and 68% of the population belonging to the working age – between 15 and 64 – the neighbouring State was considered as an appealing prospect for foreign investments. 

Nevertheless, while Hasina was praised for her policies that lifted the country’s economy, she was accused of running an authoritarian rule which cracked down dissent and her political opponents. Most of her political opponents were either jailed or faced severe harassment. Although Hasina’s party Awami League secured back-to-back victories, the critics alleged that elections were rigged in favour of her party.

The departure of Awami League from power would be a huge blow to India’s Modi-led Government. Hasina’s Government was a close ally of India and Bangladesh represented a vital element of Modi’s Neighbourhood-First foreign policy. Already speculations are rife that Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami – movements that are affable towards Pakistan and China would ascend to power in Dhaka. Sections of the Indian media have hinted at the involvement of Pakistan’s intelligence agency – ISI – in the uprising against the ousted government with the intention of establishing an anti-Indian administration. Influential Indian publicists are driving the narrative that Pro-Pakistan BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami hijacked the protest movement of students to achieve their political objectives. 

Meanwhile, parallels have been drawn between the protests of Bangladesh and the rebellion in Sri Lanka two years ago. The local agitation took place primarily due to the inability of the Gotabaya administration to provide the basic necessities because of the acute shortage of foreign reserves. Interestingly, like in the South Asian Island, the youth took an active part in the initiative to overthrow the Government in Bangladesh. The videos are circulating in the cyberspace, showing anarchists storming the official residence of the Premier and indulging in vandalism, drawing similarities to the Sri Lankan version.

Be that as it may, the future of Bangladesh is uncertain. The empirical evidence in the contemporary history is replete with instances of States experiencing severe instability when authoritarian regimes had been toppled by popular uprisings as in the case of Libya. History repeats itself time and again.