Uphill task to convince sceptical voters

Sri Lankan voters are being urged by the leading candidates contesting the 21 September 2024 Presidential election to choose between continuity and change. 

The proponents of continuity are led by incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who has had two challenging years in office after being thrust into the position unexpectedly with the sudden departure of his predecessor Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July 2022 while Sajith Premadasa who leads the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) is a proponent of change but not the kind of radical change that is advocated by the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Also in the fray is Namal Rajapaksa, named as the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) candidate who along with several others will contest for the presidency.

Already this election is looking different from previous presidential polls with several prominent candidates vying for the top job. Unlike in previous elections, when two strong candidates emerged as front runners, there is little clarity on who are the top two. Conventional wisdom has it at present that Premadasa is the one with the strongest showing with Dissanayake and Wickremesinghe also making inroads among voters. It is not clear how much impact Namal Rajapaksa’s entry will make given the split in the SLPP, but sizable numbers remain loyal to the party.

The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) of Rauff Hakeem and the Tamil Progressive Alliance of Mano Ganesan have announced that they will remain with the SJB while several smaller parties are yet to announce who they would support in the election. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) has split into three with each of the groups supporting a different candidate.

Among the candidates who have paid deposits to contest the election, former Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, businessman Dilith Jayaweera and the SLPP candidate are likely to canvass mainly among Sinhala-Buddhist voters given these past campaigns which have been majority centric. Former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka who garnered over 110,000 preferential votes and topped the SJB list in the Gampaha district in the 2020 parliamentary election is likely to have a more inclusive campaign, and appeal to all communities.

The minority vote will play a crucial role in this election and all candidates will canvass for this keenly. The main Tamil political party, the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi is yet to say who they will support while several other Tamil partiers are readying to announce a common candidate for the Tamil people.

There is no doubt that all the different candidates and political parties supporting or opposing them are confusing voters more than ever before. People are yet to see the manifestos of these candidates which are likely to be launched next week after the nominations are handed over on 15 August.

People are rallying against the establishment worldwide and it is no different in Sri Lanka. The level of scepticism is high among voters particularly the young, who are justified in wanting a better life for themselves. They are fed up with politics as usual, corruption and nepotism. Whether any of them offer real change is the question. Convincing sceptical voters is an uphill task for any candidate and however attractive the rhetoric is, politicians are aware that failure to deliver on their promises once elected would be at their own peril. Hence the candidates should do well to remember that they should only promise what they can deliver and not build up high expectations that will once again leave the public frustrated and disappointed.