Will 2024 be a repeat of 1977?

“When the Sri Lanka electorate is in one of its not very infrequent mood of disenchantment with the regime in power it gives vent to its displeasure with an exuberance and vehemence which all but obliterates the governing party – in terms of parliamentary seats,” historian K.M. de Silva wrote in reference to the defeat that the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) suffered in 1977 when the party was reduced to eight seats in parliament, from the 90 it held before, while handing over to the UNP 140 of the 168 seats in the House.

Fast forward to 2024, Sri Lanka could be on the threshold of another major upheaval in its parliamentary history. There will be major changes to the composition of the next parliament with a record number of first time MPs likely to be elected to the House.

This is a welcome change given that many politicians had overstayed their welcome and would have been rejected by voters even if they chose to contest. They’ve decided to quit the race rather than face the wrath of the voters.

Upheavals in the country’s parliamentary politics is not anything new. Powerful politicians and political parties have been routed by voters in elections.

The ruling National People’s Party (NPP) led by president Anura Kumara Dissanayake is keen to consolidate its hold on power and will leave no stone unturned to ensure a big win in parliament. The party has the largest number of newcomers contesting given that the JVP has had the number of its parliamentary seats limited to 3-10 seats. The exception was in 2004 when it was in an alliance with the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and won 39 seats, 

The JVP has, over the years, sought to rehabilitate its image as a militant, ultra nationalist group and formed the NPP to assist with that task. It was as the NPP candidate that the current president was elected. Much of what he has promised will rest on the numbers the party managers secure in the parliamentary election.

Going by past experiences, voters tend to go with the party in power, particularly one that has been recently elected to office and hence the NPP can count on winning a comfortable majority in the 225 legislatures.

For the main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and its alliance, the challenge is to retain the votes it secured in the Presidential poll while for the New Democratic Front (NDF) that is contesting under the gas cylinder symbol and has many SLPP candidates who backed former President Ranil Wickremesinghe in his presidential bid, the challenge will also be to retain the over two million votes he won at the last election.

Adding to this will be regional parties in the North, East and the Central Province that will add to the intrigue of a general election.

The battle lines have now been drawn and the next five weeks will be back to campaigning for all the candidates. The voters will have to put up with a repeat of the Presidential election campaign for a few weeks more.

Sri Lanka’s parliamentary history hasn’t been perfect. It has had its ups and downs, but the country has kept faith in the right of voters to choose the candidates of their choice and accepted the result with humility.

Parliamentary democracy in the country must be strengthened and if the President keeps to his promise to abolish the executive residence, it can augur well to a more accountable and democratic system for the country.