Great expectations

What does Obama’s re-election mean to the world? In broader terms, given Obama’s pledges to pull troops out of its conflicts abroad, its stance on global economic issues, and relations with the Middle East means that by and large the world’s population is happy with the decision made by the Americans. Yet, what will the repercussions be for Asia and in particular South Asia?

With his second term, the world will be looking to Obama to spearhead the economic war to conclusively bring down unemployment and boost trade. They will want Obama to once and for all put the ghosts of the Bush administration to rest while also bolstering America’s rather battered world image.

It would be hoped that Obama, who has already made history twice, can approach the Middle East and Iran without the Israel lobby (in the case of the former) and for the latter, sanctions that would not impact the rest of the world. As forcing other countries to give up importing fuel from Iran showed, such moves would only deepen the fissures between America and the rest of the world.

The global population will also look for more aggressive investment opportunities in Asia, with the US economy needing to push its political and economic agenda with East Asian countries if it has any hope of countering China, which of late has been more pushy than usual. The expected power handover in China also does not bode well for America or its allies in the ASEAN region since the new President is expected to be more aggressive.

While America must carve out a place in resource-rich Asia, it also cannot afford to do so by alienating China. It is increasingly clear that China’s impressive resources, including its estimated three trillion dollars in foreign reserves, are needed to ease the Euro crisis, but at the moment it has refused to open its coffers to fund the billion dollar bailout plan for Greece. Due to its undisputed economic power, the expectation that a growing China will become more Westernised is growing dimmer, while it is more likely to make the world more Chinese.

With this in mind, Obama is undertaking a historic visit to Myanmar next year. Reaching out to a country that has deep roots with China and engaging with it is a fantastic policy change that will stand the US in good stead. Moreover, Myanmar will be the ASEAN chair in 2014, putting more onus on America to engage on sensitive regional issues such as the South China Sea and China’s present standoff with Japan. Opening up more countries in Asia to US and Europe means that they too will be empowered to strike a balance of power rather than siding with China. It would moreover encourage the US to shed its sanctimonious mantel in dealing with other countries.

Apart from investment and trade boost in Asia, another positive would be that the US would continue closer ties with India. This is to be expected, but Obama also needs to stop the drone attacks and extrajudicial killings, particularly in Pakistan, if it hopes to make headway in the region.

In addition, Sri Lanka will have to continue to be cautious on its human rights record and remain in India’s good books to keep at least some of its reputation within the international community intact. Continued support on terror will likely be counterbalanced by a more fluid policy on human rights, as America attempts to woo new countries with the twin carrots of aid and investments.

Given that America is still Sri Lanka’s single largest trade partner, it should look to engage on policies of common interest while attempting to improve its domestic accountability for the sake of its own people.