Tuesday, 22 October 2013 00:15
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A NO-SHOW by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the looming Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) less than two weeks away would not only seriously damage Sri Lanka’s relations with its closest neighbour, but could also derail attempts to push Colombo further down the road of power devolution.
Analysts fear that if Singh capitulates to Tamil Nadu politicians, it will result in irreparable damage to the struggle for political rights launched by the Sri Lankan Tamil community decades ago as well as gains that could be implemented through a Northern Provincial Council that has a strong relationship with the Sri Lankan Government. Effectively, as columnist Dayan Jayatilleka put it, New Delhi would gain the north only to lose Sri Lanka.
In fact the inroads that have been made so far by Northern Chief Minister Wigneswaran being sworn-in before President Rajapaksa, not once but twice, will all be lost in the torrent of negativity that will be heaped on New Delhi if it humiliates Colombo by failing to attend CHOGM. Since the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has also called for Singh’s boycott, the tentative wariness with which the new northern administration is being viewed could deteriorate into all-out negativity in the eyes of the Sinhalese majority.
Most analysts also feel that the Rajapaksa administration holding Northern Provincial Council elections, extending cordial engagement to the TNA, signing on the dotted line of Sampur and engaging on the sensitive fishermen issue are all reason enough for Premier Singh show diplomatic quid pro quo by attending CHOGM.
Senior Indian Congress Parliamentarian from Tamil Nadu M. Krishnasswamy has said certain regional and caste-oriented parties in Tamil Nadu are playing to the gallery on the issues related to the plight of Sri Lankan Tamils, bringing disrepute not only to the Central Indian Government but also to the nation as a whole, an opinion that is worth listening to at this point.
Then there is the bigger picture. If the Prime Minister of India is blackmailed by Tamil Nadu into absenting himself from the summit despite the election of the NPC, it is highly probable that the same factor would prevent Delhi from being perceived as favouring Colombo or even sit on the fence at the March 2014 session of the UN Human Rights Council if a resolution to initiate an international inquiry into the conduct of the war by the Sri Lankan State were to come up for a vote. Dr. Jayatilleka argues additionally that it would be the tipping point that pushes Sri Lanka firmly into the arms of Beijing and Islamabad.
India, already cagey over the ‘string of pearls’ strategy, cannot afford to anger the Sri Lankan administration to the point that it becomes even more firmly entrenched with China. With large-scale projects from highways to high altitude training facilities funded by China, it is clear that New Delhi already has its work cut out to keep Sri Lanka on its side of the fence.
Engagement is a more pragmatic policy than isolation. Once that final card is played, India may find that it has an empty hand and an untethered Sri Lankan Government with a free hand to do as it wishes regarding human rights and power devolution on the other side of the Palk Strait.
