Monday, 22 September 2014 00:00
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An intriguing future has opened up with the conclusion of the Uva Provincial Council elections. The ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) has secured victory at the Uva provincial elections, but returned six members less to the council compared to the previous council in 2009. What does this mean for future presidential elections expected early next year?
The United National Party (UNP) added six more members to the council compared to the previous council while the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) increased from one member to two this time. Accordingly the UPFA, including the two bonus seats obtained 19 seats while the UNP obtained 13 seats and the JVP two. In the 2009 polls UPFA had 25 members as against seven UNP members, one – JVP and one – Upcountry People’s Front member.
At first glance it would appear the UNP has managed to visibly expand their vote base. Not only have they managed to increase their Sinhala Buddhist vote base they have also tapped into the significant minority community in Badulla. Perhaps the most significant aspect is that most voters who may have preferred to stay away from polling are back marking their cards as was seen by an impressively high voter turnout of 72%.
UNP Chief Ministerial Candidate Harin Fernando can hold his head up high. Fernando more than tripled his preferential vote count from the 2010 General Election, when he got 49,073, to a staggering 173,993 – the highest ever recorded preferential votes for any candidate from the Badulla district.
However, not all Opposition parties fared well. The JVP and the Democratic Party (DP) failed to impress despite their firebrand leaders. The former bagged only two seats while Sarath Fonseka’s party performed far poorer than in the Southern and Western Provincial Council polls. Finding a responsive chord and establishing themselves as a truly national party may take some time yet for the DP. In addition the JVP will have to relook at their strategies and make some tough calls.
Other people who will be doing the same belong to the top echelons of power.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa is likely to be full of bravado for his party did win the elections. But none can ignore the twin shadows of incumbency fatigue and a visibly stronger opposition. On a personal level the president’s nephew Shasheendra Rajapaksa saw a 30% drop in his preferential vote base, from 136,697 to 96,619, regardless of his uncle’s strenuous support during campaigning. Could this mean the allure of the Rajapaksa family is also on the decline?
Even more worrying for the ruling party is the possibility of euphoria waning over winning the war. Both the last presidential and general elections were won on this main stay. If it is indeed eroding, then the massive infrastructure development projects initiated by the Government may not be doing enough to make up the deficit in glamour leaving the UPFA more exposed during a national election.
Of course a presidential election is a largely different animal to a provincial poll. The JVP recently rejected the idea of a common candidate and in the minds of many people President Mahinda Rajapaksa and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe may not have equal standing. Also the executive presidency and two thirds majority in parliament give the UPFA a strong lead if a national election is called.
In the midst of these pressures one can sense a shit of momentum but whether it becomes a tide that changes the political firmament in Sri Lanka none can tell just yet.
