Wednesday, 31 December 2014 00:00
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Could the minorities make a change in what is increasingly becoming the tightest presidential race in a decade? The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has taken a rather predictable decision to back the Opposition in what is seen as a rather optimistic move.
It is optimistic simply because the common Opposition, balanced as it is between the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and the United National Party (UNP), has deliberately chosen to keep its view of power devolution murky. Without a clear strategy, or as TNA Leader R. Sambandan openly acknowledged at the press conference on Tuesday, an agreement on key issues between the Opposition coalition and the TNA, backing common candidate Maithripala Sirisena to deliver where Rajapaksa hasn’t is optimistic.
Yet, for the TNA is clearly makes sense. Having waited for the Rajapaksa Government to carry through with implementing the 13th Amendment to no avail, they are willing to hedge bets with the opposite camp. This is especially sensible given the campaign stance taken by Sirisena in pledging to end the executive presidency, enshrine good governance and rule of law. The TNA is hoping against hope Sirisena will be the man who can bring a peace that is acceptable to all ethnic groups.
The negative aspect of course is that TNA support strengthens the Government’s slogan on an “international conspiracy” still further, dangerously dividing the country along sensitive ethnic lines. At a rally in Kaduwela on Tuesday United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) Secretary General Susil Premajayanth was quick to insist Sinhalese Buddhists of the south have the numbers to cast four votes to every one cast by a Tamil in the north.
This kind of mindset will only continue to divide a country desperately trying to heal after three decades of war. The Government is increasingly putting the ethnic divide in the limelight rather than issues. Perhaps they would say it is one and the same thing.
SLMC Leader Rauff Hakeem, who was initially viewed by most political analysts as an unwilling participant in the change of colours, admitted to media it was impossible as a political party to ignore the changing sentiments of its constituency. Hakeem also placed the differences between the SLMC and the Government squarely at the foot of bad governance, insisting it would be possible to reconcile with any political make-up as long as it respected the covenants of democracy. It was a key insight to the current battle being faced by the Rajapaksa administration to shore up credibility and maintain its coalition, especially with regard to minorities.
With the Sinhala Buddhist vote base mostly split between the two main candidates, analysts are predicting an increasing role for minorities. While the Muslim population covers about 10%, possible support from the Tamil community could well make minorities the kingmakers of Sri Lanka.
Since no independent poll numbers are available, it is now getting harder and harder to accurately call the elections as the days tick down to undoubtedly the most exciting election in a decade.
Predictably, Sirisena’s camp will be taking heart from the crucial momentum just ahead of the vote on 8 January while the Government will be intensifying their campaign to pull fence voters onto their side. Certainly the stakes could not be higher!
