Friday, 27 December 2013 00:00
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THE Budget debates that unfolded in Parliament last week also included shocking evidence that the growth rates of Sri Lanka are being “massaged” to show higher development statistics. While this will not necessarily surprise many, it shows the need for a transparent system that can provide credible information to the public and present a realistic evaluation to policy makers.
Parliament was told by JVP MP Anura Kumara Dissanayake that the Census and Statistics Department’s Accounts Division Director H.S. Wanasinghe had been instructed to upgrade the country’s growth data from 5.5% to 6%. When he had reported this event, he was put under an inquiry and the statements made by Wanasinghe were read out in Parliament by Dissanayake.
Census and Statistics Department’s Director General D.C.A Gunawardena has denied the allegations and insisted during an interview to the media that Wanasinghe should have listened to his instructions. He also insisted that the numbers released by his department are mirrored by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) despite the fact that both those organisations base their growth projections on official data released by the Government and have shown less enthusiastic growth rates than the department.
The public has long known that statistics released by the department do not reflect reality. This is particularly true of inflation numbers. People became so disillusioned by the inaccuracy that an alternative index was released earlier this year and enthusiastically published by most media. While the Central Bank and Government Ministers are ecstatic over the spiffy single digit inflation rates that have lasted for most of three years, the public as well as the business community are more cautious. The average wage-earner is even more sceptical and an alternative index that showed the true picture helped slap off the rosy tinted shades of Government top rungs – temporarily.
It is no secret that the Census and Statistics Department has failed to remain immune to politicisation. As such, it has lost all credibility in the numbers that it regularly spews out and is enthusiastically embraced by the Government and few others. Poverty and unemployment statistics, for example, also fail to impress despite the record lows shown by the effervescent department. Poverty is said to be low, but the number of people who barely survive is growing in Sri Lanka. Even the Government’s own Samurdhi statistics fail to support its poverty numbers, with an alarming number of people dependent on handouts.
In terms of unemployment, a burgeoning public sector is responsible for absorbing most graduates, while its counterpart has been shrinking. As more and more professionals choose to migrate, most companies either prefer to distribute the workload internally or will hire people and pay them less. In fact the average salary of the private sector has moderated to the extent that President Mahinda Rajapaksa made a special request for a salary hike during the Budget speech.
The public expects the Government to improve its living standards. In order to do that in a credible manner, it must first have accurate data. A Census and Statistics Department seen as the tool of the Government will harm Sri Lanka in a myriad of ways. For example, the Tamil National Alliance has already rejected the census done on war missing and damaged, making a strong case for an independent data gathering institution. But it is far more likely that Wanasinghe will find himself joining the ranks of the unemployed.
