Individual response to COVID-19 ‘as important’ as government action

How individuals respond to government advice on preventing the spread of COVID-19 will be at least as important, if not more so, than government action, according to a new commentary published in ‘The Lancet’ from researchers at the University of Oxford and Imperial College London in the UK, and Utrecht University and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands.

As the UK moves into the “delay” phase of dealing with a possible COVID-19 epidemic, the researchers, led by Professor Sir Roy Anderson at Imperial College and Professor Deirdre Hollingsworth at the University of Oxford’s Big Data Institute, suggest what can be done to minimise its spread and its impact.

Professor Hollingsworth said: “Completely preventing infection and mortality is not possible, so this is about mitigation. Our knowledge and understanding of COVID-19 will change over time, as will the response. High quality data collection and analysis will form an essential part of the control effort. Government communication strategies to keep the public informed will be absolutely vital.”

Vaccine development is already underway, but it is likely to be at least a year before a vaccine can be mass-produced, even assuming all trials are successful. Social distancing is therefore the most important measure, with an individual’s behaviour key. This includes early self-isolation and quarantine, seeking remote medical advice and not attending large gatherings or going to crowded places. The virus seems to largely affect older people and those with existing medical conditions, so targeted social distancing may be most effective.

Government actions will be important, including banning large events such as football matches, closing workplaces, schools and institutions where COVID-19 has been identified, and making sure that good diagnostic facilities and remotely accessed advice, like telephone helplines, are widely available. Ensuring the provision of specialist healthcare is also vital. The researchers warn, however, that large-scale measures may only be of limited effect without individual responsibility. All measures, of course, will have an economic impact, and some stricter measures, such as shutting down entire cities, as seen in Wuhan in China, may be less effective in Western democracies. 

The aim of these social distancing measures is to “flatten the curve” of the infection, slowing the spread and avoiding a huge peak in the number of new infections.