China’s economic recovery underwhelms as consumer comeback stays elusive

Saturday, 15 August 2020 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

People wear protective face masks as they are seen in a shopping complex after an outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Beijing, China 17 July – Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters): China’s retail sales slipped in July, dashing expectations for a modest rise, as consumers in the world’s second-largest economy failed to shake off wariness about the coronavirus, while the factory sector’s recovery struggled to pick up pace.

Asian markets pulled back on Friday following the disappointing set of economic indicators, which raised concerns about the fragility of China’s emergence from coronavirus.

China’s recovery had been gaining momentum after the pandemic paralysed huge swathes of the economy as pent-up demand, government stimulus and surprisingly resilient exports revived activity. However, July data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday showed weaker-than-expected year-on-year industrial output growth and retail sales extending declines into a seventh straight month. That was slightly offset by firmer property investment, which showed recent stimulus was supporting construction.

Some analysts attributed the loss of momentum in the economy to the torrential rains that have flooded Southern China since June and several fresh COVID-19 outbreaks that led to partial lockdowns.

“Although there could be a modest rebound in some investment activities if the floods subside in coming months, we expect sequential recovery momentum to get weaker in H2,” Nomura analysts said in a note, citing factors such as receding pent-up demand, diminished chances of more policy easing and rising U.S.-China tensions.

Industrial output grew 4.8% in July from a year earlier, in line with June’s growth but less than a forecast 5.1% rise. Retail sales dropped 1.1% on year, missing predictions for a 0.1% rise and following June’s 1.8% fall.

The decline in retail sales was broad based with garments, cosmetics, home appliances and furniture all worsening from June.

A key exception was auto sales, which surged 12.3%, turning around from a 8.2% fall in June.

“Despite narrowing declines in investment, consumption remained weak, highlighting the lasting economic shock from the coronavirus pandemic,” said Zhang Yi, chief economist at Zhonghai Shengrong Capital Management.

“Given we are likely to see a resurgence of COVID in the autumn and winter, it is not recommended that monetary policy be tightened too prematurely and fiscal policy stay insufficient.”

China’s July nationwide survey-based jobless rate remained elevated at 5.7%, the same as June.

Helping carry the recovery, however, was investment, which was driven by the fast expansion in the property sector, with analysts expecting infrastructure spending to accelerate in coming months on the back of government support.