Rise of floating voters: key to political renewal of Sri Lanka

The rise of floating voters signifies a shift in the political landscape of Sri Lanka, where loyalty to political parties is no longer a given

• The rise of floating voters signifies a shift in the political landscape of Sri Lanka, where loyalty to political parties is no longer a given

Recent Presidential and Parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka reveal a clear and growing trend: a significant portion of the electorate now comprises “floating voters.” These voters are characterised by their willingness to change political loyalties frequently, driven by a quest for the most suitable solutions to the nation’s issues. Unlike a party’s core supporters, their allegiance is not fixed, and they are open to shifting their vote based on the performance and vision of the political parties at any given time.

The misreading of voter sentiment

A prime example is seen in the 2018 local government elections when the Pohottuwa party, under the leadership of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, made substantial gains. This surge in support was misinterpreted by the party as a broad endorsement of Rajapaksa’s political leadership. In reality, the gains were not an expression of unwavering loyalty to Rajapaksa but rather a reflection of voters’ frustration with the existing political system and their desire for an alternative.

Similarly, in the 2019 Presidential election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa secured 6.9 million votes, leading his team to believe that these votes represented a return to the Mahinda Rajapaksa era. However, a closer examination reveals that the floating voters were not interested in reviving the past but in reforming the system under Gotabaya’s leadership. 

Gotabaya’s missed opportunity

Once in power, Gotabaya Rajapaksa failed to fully capitalise on the mandate he received from these voters. His administration became overly dominated by his family, particularly his brother, Basil Rajapaksa, who wielded significant influence in decision-making, from Parliamentary nominations to Cabinet appointments. In doing so, Gotabaya sidelined many professionals, including those from the Viyathmaga movement—individuals who had played a key role in his election victory. Despite winning seats in the 2020 General election, these Viyathmaga candidates were excluded from Cabinet roles, as Basil Rajapaksa insisted on prioritising seniority within the party.

This approach alienated many of the very people who had supported Gotabaya’s bid for change. The failure to deliver on promises and the exclusion of reform-minded individuals led to a decline in Gotabaya’s popularity, eventually contributing to his downfall during the mass uprising of 2022. 

The shift of floating voters to the NPP

In a dramatic reversal, the same voter base that once supported Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019 has now shifted its allegiance to the National People’s Power (NPP), led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake. In the 2020 Parliamentary elections, Gotabaya’s Pohottuwa party received around 6.8 million votes, while the NPP only garnered 0.4 million votes. By the 2024 Parliamentary elections, however, the situation had changed: the NPP secured roughly 6.8 million votes, while Pohottuwa’s vote share shrank to just 0.35 million. 

The key takeaway here is that the NPP leadership must avoid the same missteps as Pohottuwa by assuming that the nearly six million floating voters who supported them in 2024 are permanent backers. These voters are driven by a genuine love for their country and a strong desire for meaningful reforms. If the NPP Government can deliver on its promises, it will retain the loyalty of these voters. However, if it falters, the loyalty of these floating voters can easily shift again in future elections.

The NPP’s approach: Inclusivity and professionalism

One of the most important differences between the NPP and Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration is the NPP’s approach to governance. Dr. Harshana Sooriyaperuma, a prominent member of the NPP, made an insightful comment during an interview about how the party intends to treat professionals if Anura Kumara Dissanayake wins. Unlike Viyathmaga, which had little influence in the Pohottuwa structure and was easily sidelined after Gotabaya took power, the NPP has made a conscious effort to integrate professionals into its party structure. Dr. Sooriyaperuma pointed out that professionals within the NPP are not just peripheral figures; they are key players in the party’s leadership and decision-making.

This inclusive approach is evident in the selection of the first cabinet and deputy ministers, where a deliberate effort has been made to appoint professionals to key positions. This contrasts sharply with Gotabaya’s government, where Basil Rajapaksa’s centralisation of power left little room for independent voices. The hope is that by incorporating a diverse range of perspectives into governance, the NPP can better meet the expectations of the electorate and deliver on its promises of reform.

The economy: The central challenge

In politics, the economy often remains the most critical issue that determines a government’s success or failure. The famous slogan “It’s the economy, stupid” from Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign is a reminder that political rhetoric often takes a backseat when the economic situation worsens. Similarly, for the NPP, addressing Sri Lanka’s economic crisis will be the primary challenge in the years ahead.

While Ranil Wickremesinghe’s administration bought some time by securing IMF loans, delaying debt repayments, and pursuing debt restructuring, the underlying structural weaknesses in the economy remain unresolved. These weaknesses, such as the country’s ongoing balance of payments crisis, could resurface as Sri Lanka begins repaying its debts. To navigate these challenges, the new Government must implement sound economic policies. 

Tackling corruption: A key expectation

Corruption has long been a pervasive issue in Sri Lankan politics, with successive governments promising to recover looted assets and punish those responsible. During the 2014 and 2015 election campaigns, both major political platforms promised to root out corruption and return stolen assets. However, the Yahapalana government’s failure to fulfil these promises led to widespread disillusionment, as no high-profile corruption cases resulted in jail time or asset recovery.

The current Government is under intense pressure to take concrete action against corruption. With a two-thirds majority in Parliament, the NPP has the power to change laws and create special departments or commissions dedicated to investigating and recovering stolen assets. However, the process must be transparent and free from political manipulation, as seen during the Yahapalana era, when anti-corruption measures were often used to target political opponents rather than pursue justice. 

Experience vs. Vision: The NPP’s new leadership

During the election campaign, former President Ranil Wickremesinghe frequently questioned the inexperience of NPP leadership, particularly their lack of ministerial experience. However, given the opportunity a talented person with a vision can rise to the occasion, even without prior experience. A notable example is Ranil Wickremesinghe himself, who, at the age of 28 years, was appointed as Minister of Youth Affairs and Employment in the 1977 government of J.R. Jayewardene. 

In the case of the NPP, its leadership may be new, but it brings with it a commitment to change, adaptability, and a fresh perspective. The NPP’s effective campaign, which outpaced wealthier and more entrenched competitors, shows that it can connect with voters and navigate Sri Lanka’s complex political landscape. While experience is important, it is not the only factor that determines success in governance. The new Government must be given the chance to prove its vision and leadership.

A new era of political possibility

The rise of floating voters signifies a shift in the political landscape of Sri Lanka, where loyalty to political parties is no longer a given. Voters are now motivated by the desire for real change, and their support can easily shift depending on how well political leaders deliver on their promises. For the NPP, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity. If the party can live up to the expectations of the electorate, it will secure the loyalty of these voters for the long term. However, failure to deliver meaningful reform could lead to the same fate as previous governments.

In the coming years, the NPP will face significant challenges, particularly in managing the economy and addressing corruption. If the leadership can navigate these issues with transparency, professionalism, and a focus on the needs of the people, it could mark the beginning of a new era in Sri Lankan politics. The floating voter, once a symbol of uncertainty, could be the key to a more stable and reform-oriented future.

 

(The writer is a former Cabinet Minister.)