Rising US output to push global oil market into H1 2018 surplus: IEA

London (Reuters): The global oil market will likely show a surplus in the first half of 2018, as rising US supply offsets OPEC’s discipline in maintaining its production cuts for the whole of next year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

“Total supply growth could exceed demand growth: indeed, in the first half the surplus could be 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) before reverting to a deficit of about 200,000 bpd in the second half, leaving 2018 as a whole showing a closely balanced market,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

“A lot could change in the next few months but it looks as if the producers’ hopes for a happy New Year with de-stocking continuing into 2018 at the same 500,000-bpd pace we have seen in 2017 may not be fulfilled.”

The IEA left its forecast for global oil demand growth unchanged for 2017 at 1.5 million bpd, marking a rise of 1.6%, and for 2018, at 1.3 million bpd, equal to an increase of 1.3%.