Asian stocks flounder on growth anxiety, China data little help

Tuesday, 14 October 2014 01:13 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Reuters: Asian stocks stumbled to seven-month lows on Monday, while crude oil prices were pinned near a four-year trough as promising trade numbers out of China failed to cheer a market still worried about faltering global growth. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.8%, extending last week’s 1.1% drop. European stocks will probably fare no better with financial spreadbetters seeing falls of around 1.0% for the major indices at the open. “European equities look set to open sharply lower yet again following a terrible ending to US equity trading on Friday and another lurch lower in Asia overnight,”a London-based dealer at Capital Spreads, William Nicholls, wrote in a trading note.

“As the global recovery seems to become increasingly less certain...the risk off trade has become worryingly prevalent.” Mainland Chinese stocks skidded 1.0%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.6% and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.9%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index lost 0.7%. Tokyo’s Nikkei was spared the pain thanks to a public holiday in Japan. The declines in Asian markets came after US stocks tumbled 1.2% on Friday and Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index, jumped to a near two-year high. Investors have been cutting back on risk assets in earnest with Europe staring at the prospects of a recession, Japan’s economy floundering, China’s expansion slowing and the Federal Reserve on track to end its bond-buying stimulus soon. Asia’s MSCI index has fallen every week in the past five and is now down 10% from a near seven-year peak set early last month. Yet figures on Monday showing Chinese export and import growth beating forecasts did little to restore market confidence. “I’m still a little bit hesitant in becoming very bullish on export growth, simply looking at the state of the global economy,” Chief China economist at RBS in Hong Kong, Louis Kuijs said. In fact, analysts expect data next week to show China’s economy grew at its weakest pace in more than five years in the third quarter as a property downturn weighed on demand. Such were the worries about global growth that IMF member countries on Saturday called for bold action to bolster the global economic recovery and flagged Europe as a top concern. All this anxiety has helped shore up the safe-haven yen, which rose to an 11-month high against the euro at 135.56. It has since drifted back to 135.90. The Japanese currency reached a one-month high on the greenback at 107.06, pulling well away from a six-year trough of 110.09 per dollar reached early this month. Commodities have also been badly hit, none more so than crude oil which has to contend with ample supply as well. Brent crude has dropped $ 25 since June and on Friday came within a whisker of $ 88 a barrel for the first time in nearly four years. It last traded at $ 88.90. Copper edged up 0.7% to $ 6,692 per tonne, but was still within reach of a five-month trough of $ 6,600 set early this month. Spot gold traded at $1,231 an ounce, having last week plumbed a 15-month low of $ 1,183.46. Underscoring the gloom surrounding the euro zone, Standard & Poor’s on Friday slapped a negative outlook on France’s sovereign ratings, topping off a difficult week that featured a string of worryingly weak German data. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last week said a slowdown in the euro zone’s economic momentum could weigh further on the reluctance of companies and households to invest. Draghi reiterated that the ECB Governing Council was unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate to address risks of a too-long period of low inflation. Several Federal Reserve officials, most notably, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, said on Saturday efforts to normalise US monetary policy after years of extraordinary stimulus may be hampered by the global outlook.