BJP heading for majority in general election: Opinion poll

Wednesday, 16 April 2014 01:24 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

REUTERS: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are set to win a narrow majority in the world’s largest democratic election, the latest opinion poll showed on Monday. The Hindu nationalist opposition party, led by prime-ministerial hopeful Narendra Modi, and its allies have until now been forecast to win the largest chunk of the 543 parliamentary seats but fall short of the 272-seat mark needed for a majority. That would force them to seek a coalition with some of India’s increasingly powerful regional parties. But a poll for the private news channel NDTV showed the BJP and its allies winning a narrow majority of 275 seats. That would be an increase of 16 seats since the last NDTV poll a little over a week ago. Indian elections are notoriously hard to call, however, due to the country’s diverse electorate and a parliamentary system in which local candidates hold great sway. Opinion polls in 2004 wrongly predicted victory for a BJP-led alliance and in 2009 underestimated the winning margin of the ruling Congress party. Modi, Chief Minister of the western state of Gujarat, has been wooing voters by promising to get India out of its slowest economic growth in a decade and by pointing to his track record of cutting red tape and attracting investment in his state, Gujarat. Religious tensions

Sonia Gandhi in TV appeal to stop “divisive” BJP

REUTERS: Sonia Gandhi, President of the ruling Congress party, has issued a rare direct appeal to the nation not to return an opposition she said was motivated by “hatred and falsehood” in the country’s general election.

The three-minute TV address was aired at prime time on Hindi-language channels just as an opinion poll showed for the first time that an alliance led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could win an outright majority. “Their vision, clouded with hatred and falsehood, their ideology, divisive and autocratic, will drive us to ... ruination,” the Italian-born widow of 1980s Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi said in the clip broadcast on Monday night. Gandhi, 67, has taken centre stage in a bid to avert what polls predict will be the worst-ever election defeat for Congress, after a weak campaign led by her son and political heir apparent, Rahul. The BJP dismissed the address as “a farewell speech given in desperation”, driving home an advantage it has reaped from recent accounts by former government insiders that Sonia Gandhi had kept Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on a tight leash. “She wants to give power to the people but did not give power to the prime minister,” Prakash Javadekar, the BJP’s national spokesman, told Reuters. Heart and soul Sitting in a book-lined study and wearing a dark red sari, Sonia Gandhi did not mention the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, by name. But her comments clearly targeted his brand of Hindu nationalism that she believes poses a threat to social peace in India’s diverse society of 1.2 billion, and at a BJP campaign focused on Modi that critics say smacks of a personality cult. “It is this, the very heart and soul of India, that we are fighting to protect in this election, from those who seek to change it, and to divide us,” said Gandhi. “They want to impose uniformity. They say: ‘Just believe in me.’“ Modi, 63, is campaigning as a no-nonsense administrator who has fought corruption and nurtured investment during more than a decade as chief minister of the western state of Gujarat. But questions persist over an eruption of sectarian bloodshed in Gujarat in 2002 in which more than 1,000 were killed, mostly Muslims. Modi has denied accusations that he failed to halt the riots, and a Supreme Court inquiry found that he had no case to answer. A senior Modi aide has, however, been banned from campaigning by the election authorities for statements directed at minority Muslims in Uttar Pradesh that promoted “hatred and ill-will”. The state, India’s most populous, is a must-win territory for any party staking a claim on power. India’s five-week general election, which kicked off on 7 April, has seen a high turnout so far in what some analysts say is evidence of a “Modi wave” that could propel the BJP to power for the first time in a decade. The latest opinion poll, for private news channel NDTV, showed the BJP and its allies winning 275 parliamentary seats, enough for a three-seat majority. That was an increase of 16 seats from the last NDTV poll just over a week ago. The biggest round of voting comes on Thursday, with 122 seats being contested in regions in the north, including Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka in the south and Rajasthan in the northwest. Voting ends on 12 May, with results due on 16 May.

Yet his image remains tarnished by Hindu-Muslim riots in Gujarat on his watch 12 years ago, in which more than 1,000 people - most of them Muslims - were killed. Modi denies accusations that he failed to stop the riots and a Supreme Court inquiry found no evidence to prosecute him. Amit Shah, who runs the BJP’s campaign in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, was reprimanded last week by election authorities for speeches that appeared to justify religious riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013. India’s 815 million voters are heading to the polls in nine stages from 7 April to 12 May, with results due on 16 May. The latest NDTV-Hansa Research opinion poll surveyed voters in over 350 parliamentary constituencies and had a margin of error or plus or minus 2%. The ruling Congress party, led by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, and its allies were forecast to win just 111 parliamentary seats in the poll. Congress faces a struggle to be re-elected after a decade in power due to public anger over the economic slowdown, high inflation and a string of corruption scandals. India’s retail inflation has remained near 10% for the last three years, mainly driven by higher food prices. Growth has struggled at a decade-low of nearly 5%. An opinion poll earlier this month by the CNN-IBN news channel and the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, one of India’s most trusted polling groups, gave between 234 and 246 seats to the BJP and its allies.