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(Reuters): Activity in China’s vast factory sector grew for the first time in nine months in March to bring a hint of Spring to the global economy, though a renewed chill in Japanese industry led to a muted response in financial markets.
Surveys showed a continued expansion in activity in Europe, while the United States should enjoy a return to growth after five months of contraction and another strong jobs report.
Headlining in Asia was a rise in the official version of the Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 50.2, beating forecasts and above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.
The private Caixin/Markit PMI found output, total new orders and output prices all returned to growth, while a survey of the service sector surprised with its strength.
“It does seem to indicate that the manufacturing sector is warming up a bit,” said Raymond Yeung, senior economist at ANZ in Hong Kong. “New orders were up 2.8 points, which is a very strong figure.”
“We think there are basically two factors driving the recovery: the first is a possible acceleration in infrastructure spending. The second is a broader pickup in external demand.”
That should be of some comfort to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen who this week cited the global risks emanating from China as one reason to be cautious on raising US rates.
Yet, China watchers still suspect more support will be needed from Beijing, especially if it wants to avoid a politically unsettling rise in unemployment.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s underlined the need for faster reform when it changed China’s credit outlook to negative on Thursday.
The economic pulse across the rest of Asia was more erratic. South Korea’s PMI bounced to within a whisker of 50 in March while stronger shipments of smartphones and steel saw exports decline at the slowest pace in four months.
Indonesia put an end to 17 straight months of contraction as its PMI popped up to 50.6, with output, new orders and employment all improving.
Japan, however, was busy going backwards as the Markit/Nikkei PMI of 49.1 was the lowest since February 2013.
That echoed a gloomy survey of manufacturers from the Bank of Japan which found sentiment at its darkest in nearly three years, a result that lopped 3% off the Nikkei.
All of which heightened pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the central bank to do more to shore up the stuttering economy.
“This data confirmed the very cautious stance of Japanese firms reflecting the market volatility since January. There are no signs of corporate sentiment bottoming in coming months,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at SMBC Friend Securities.
“There’s more than a 50% chance the BOJ will consider easing policy further this month.”
Analysts are hoping for better news from Europe and the U.S. later in the session. The euro zone version of the PMI is expected to hold at 51.4 for March, with growth seen spreading from Germany to Italy to Spain.
The influential US reading from the Institute of Supply Management was forecast to rebound to 50.7 and back above 50 for the first time since August.
The always-pivotal nonfarm payrolls report is also expected to show a healthy increase of 205,000 in March and perhaps a much-needed pick up in wage earnings.
