Crude oil rises after OPEC says market to be balanced in 2016

Wednesday, 11 November 2015 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Oil prices rose on Tuesday after the head of OPEC forecast a more balanced market next year and the U.S. energy department said domestic output is likely to fall further, though gains were limited as the overall picture of a market in glut remains.

U.S. crude rose 28 cents to $44.06 a barrel by 0409 GMT, after falling about 1% on Monday to $44.15 for a fourth consecutive decline. BUP_DFT_DFT-22--48

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 21 cents at $47.40 a barrel. The contract slipped 0.5% on Monday to $47.19 a barrel, also falling for four trading days in a row.

Oil is trending a little higher in the Asian period but still very much under pressure, said Ben le Brun, market analyst at OptionsXpress.

“There’s just nothing fundamental in the news flow over the past 24 hours or longer that makes us think there could be a fundamental turnaround anytime soon,” he said.

Further evidence of stockpiling, expectations of a hike in U.S. rates and anaemic economic growth figures have helped push down prices in the last week.

Still, the comments from OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri on Monday did provide a little bullish relief to the market.

“The expectation is that the market will return to more balance in 2016,” al-Badri said in a speech in the Qatari capital Doha.

“We see global oil demand maintaining its recent healthy growth. We see less non-OPEC supply. And we see an increase in the demand for OPEC crude,” Badri said.

Most of the oil supply increases in recent years have come from high-cost production, Badri said, in a reference to supply sources such as U.S. shale oil.

Shale production is expected to fall for an eighth consecutive month in December, according to a forecast on Monday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Total output is set to decline by 118,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, the biggest monthly decline on record, to 4.95 million bpd, the least since September 2014, according to EIA data going back to 2007.