Oil curves move above $ 50 as financial confidence in crude rises

Reuters: US oil futures held above $ 50 per barrel on Friday as the entire crude forward curve pushed above that level in a sign that financial markets have increasing confidence in the sector.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 were up 3 cents at $ 50.47 per barrel as of 0653 GMT on Friday. They settled at $ 50.44 per barrel on Thursday – the first settlement above $ 50 since late June.

Brent futures LCOc1 already moved over $ 50 at the start of this week, and were trading 4 cents up at $ 52.55 per barrel.

With both front-month contracts above $ 50 per barrel and each forward curve in contango, in which contracts for future delivery are more expensive than those for immediate sale, the entire crude futures complex has moved back over $ 50 per barrel.

“There is still no end in sight for the current bullish run. Speculators have been buying every short-term dip, a strategy that has evidently been working very well so far,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at futures brokerage Forex.com.

“This trend could well continue for some yet as after all crude oil’s fundamental outlook continues to improve: as well as the planned OPEC oil output cut, we have seen surprise inventory destocking in the US for five straight weeks now. Consequently, US oil stocks have now fallen below 500 million barrels for the first time since January,” he added.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to agree on a coordinated production cut when it next meets in late November, in a bid to rein in a global fuel supply overhang that has dogged prices for the last two years.

“OPEC kept the heat on oil prices overnight. The Algerian Energy Minister saying that OPEC could cut by more than the 0.5 million barrels per day initial agreement,” said Jeffrey Halley of brokerage OANDA.

“More significantly representatives of both OPEC and Non-OPEC producers will meet for a tete-a-tete on the sidelines of yet another energy conference next week.”

Despite the increasing confidence by financial oil traders in higher prices, the physical market remains relatively weak.

In a sign of ongoing oversupply, top exporter Saudi Arabia cut its benchmark crude prices to Asia this week, and analysts at JBC Energy warned there was “a growing disconnect between the physical and the financial (oil) market” which would likely converge.

HSBC on Friday said recent gains in Brent and WTI should be kept in perspective, cautioning that seasonal aspects of the price rally would fade again soon.

Sterling recoups some losses after near 10% plunge; stocks slip

Reuters: Sterling recouped some losses after plunging to a three-decade low in Asian trade on Friday amid growing fears of a “hard” exit by Britain from the European Union, though the broader global market impact was limited with stocks down only slightly.

The pound nosedived almost 10% at one point to $1.1378 after crashing through key support levels and triggering a wave of selling.

But it quickly bounced and by late morning was around 1.2441, still down about 1.5% from late U.S. levels and leaving traders scratching their heads in the absence of any major news overnight.

“This was even a bigger move than what we saw after the Brexit vote. There were almost no offers, no bids when this happened,” said a trader at a European bank in Tokyo.

The pound has come under renewed pressure as fears grow that Britain’s divorce from the EU will be messier and costlier for the economy than expected. UK Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday set a March deadline for the formal departure process from the EU to begin.

“The whole thing’s been on a precipice since Sunday, since Theresa May (pointed to) March Brexit negotiations, but the selling has been very substantial so you can only think its been part of that general punishment of the pound for Brexit,” said Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac in Sydney.

“I think we’ve underestimated how many people had money positions for a very wishy-washy Brexit or even none. May’s comments have really just started the cleanout and we just haven’t seen any sign of bouncing.”

While sterling’s move broadly coincided with some news reports that Britain’s separation from the eurozone may be a tough process, some traders blamed it on a possible a “fat finger” error triggering automatic stop-loss orders.

“A few stops got triggered in early trading and once cable broke 1.20, option barriers sent it lower,” said Gerrard Katz, head of Asian FX sales and trading at Scotiabank said. “The broader market impact has been limited and cable should consolidate between the 1.20 and 1.25 levels.”

Britain’s finance minister Philip Hammond tried to reassure jittery markets on Thursday, saying the UK economy was fundamentally strong, but he acknowledged that next year will be “turbulent”.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the dollar edged down 0.3% against the yen to 103.66 after hitting its highest level in a month on Thursday.

The euro eased 0.2% to $1.1128, poised to shed 1% for the week.

The greenback held firm after data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to near a 43-year low, boding well for Friday’s closely-watched payroll data.

In stocks, Asian shares dipped but held not far from the 14-month high touched last month ahead of the U.S. jobs report later in the day. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan and Japan’s Nikkei both eased around 0.2%.

Strong U.S. jobs numbers could cement expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase later this year and ripple through markets. Economists polled by Reuters forecast nonfarm payrolls to increase by 175,000.

A disorderly reaction to possible U.S. interest rate hikes could disrupt capital flows and heighten asset price volatility in Asia, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

Interest rate futures are now pricing in about a 65% chance of a rate hike by December, compared to less than 50% late last month.

The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield hit a three-week high of 1.746% on Thursday before easing slightly to 1.73% on Friday.

Gold hit a 3-1/2-month low of $1,250 per ounce, having declined 5% on the week. It last stood at $1,258.8.

Silver has slumped more than 10% so far this week to hit a four-month low of $17.1525 per ounce.

Oil prices steadied after U.S. crude broke through $50 a barrel overnight, spurred by an informal meeting among the world’s biggest producers on output cuts and falling U.S. crude inventories.

U.S. crude futures were little changed at $50.43, just below Thursday’s four-month high of $50.63.