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Gulf can cope with cheaper oil, IMF says as bourses plungeDUBAI(Reuters): The Arab energy exporting states of the Gulf can cope comfortably with sliding oil prices, an International Monetary Fund official said on Tuesday, as a plunge in regional stock markets showed some local investors were panicking. Brent crude oil dropped below $60 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since 2009, from around $115 as recently as June. If those levels persist next year, the six rich nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council will face the most dramatic change in their fortunes since the global economic crisis in 2008. All except Qatar would run state budget deficits as oil revenues shrank; Bahrain and Oman would be deep in the red. Harald Finger, the IMF’s head of mission for the United Arab Emirates, told a financial conference in Dubai that because the big GCC economies had built up huge fiscal reserves, they would not have to cut state spending deeply, and could therefore avoid sharp economic slowdowns. “Most of the GCC countries have quite significant buffers in the form of foreign assets in sovereign wealth funds or central banks, plus most of these countries have a capacity to borrow, so there is no need now for a very steep and quick reduction of spending, which would not necessarily be desirable,” he said. But as he spoke, GCC stock markets were tumbling in a rout which erased about $49 billion of market value on Tuesday alone. Saudi Arabia’s stock market closed 7.3% lower, while Dubai also lost 7.3%, bringing its losses this month to 28%. Qatar sank 3.5%. The collapse over recent weeks suggests the impact of low oil prices on Gulf business and investor sentiment could be greater than the monetary hit to governments’ balance sheets. |