Toyota expects record sales in 2012

TOKYO (Reuters):Japanese carmaker Toyota Motor forecast a 20 percent jump in 2012 sales to a record 8.48 million vehicles, as it recovers from output losses caused by natural disasters in Japan and Thailand this year.

Toyota, the world’s top carmaker since 2008, is set to lose its crown to U.S. rival General Motors after supply-chain disruptions from the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan and flooding in Thailand hit production around the world.

With estimated sales this year of 7.90 million vehicles for the group, which includes units Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors, Toyota will likely rank third behind General Motors and German group Volkswagen.

Toyota could regain the top spot next year as it builds inventory to meet pent-up demand and adds output capacity in Brazil and China, among other countries.

“The reason they lost sales this year was because they could not build the cars. Now that they can, it is possible they will take back the top spot,” said Satoru Takada, analyst at Tokyo-based T.I.W.

“It depends on which markets the growth will come from,” he said, noting while Toyota was dominant in southeast Asia and the Middle East, it had more competition in China and South America.

“This foreign-exchange pressure is compounded by eroding macro-economic conditions in certain core markets, and Toyota’s weaker competitive position following product quality issues”.

Toyota’s parent-only plan for 2012 compared with its previous peak of 8.43 million vehicles in 2007.

Toyota now aims to sell half its cars in emerging markets by 2015, up from around 40 percent. “The numerical plans announced today reflect that strategy,” said spokeswoman Amiko Tomita.

With growth in developing markets such as China and India slowing and Europe in the middle of a debt crisis, some said Toyota’s plans may be optimistic.

“With these factors in mind, I think some investors are somewhat sceptical that they will reach these numbers,” said Fujio Ando, a senior analyst at Chibagin Asset Management. “There might be a slight gap between the company’s numbers and what investors expect,” he said.

Toyota also announced plans to sell 8.95 million Toyota, Lexus and Scion vehicles worldwide in 2013 and build 8.98 million vehicles. It gave no regional breakdown for forecasts outside Japan. It plans to build 3.40 million vehicles and sell 1.53 million vehicles at home in 2012.