Emerging stocks set for monthly loss

Reuters (London): Emerging stocks ended the month on a sour note on Monday, down more than 3% on the month, although Turkish assets appeared unfazed by Moscow’s decision to slap sanctions on Ankara over last week’s downing of a fighter jet.

MSCI’s broadest emerging market index slipped 1% and was set to end November in the red - chalking up losses for six out of the past seven months.

China mainland stocks swung wildly in and out of negative territory, fraying investors’ nerves in a highly volatile session before ending flat after Friday’s more than 5% slump, with a batch of stock market debuts and concerns over the health of its economy looming large.

Bourses across Asia, emerging Europe and the Gulf region fell, with Russian rouble-denominated shares down 0.6% and Polish stocks almost matching that fall.

Meanwhile, Turkish stocks extended Friday’s gains, adding 0.3% and shrugging off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to impose a raft of economic sanctions on Ankara.

“That move was anticipated by markets, Russia was expected to follow through on it,” said Cristian Maggio, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, adding the effect of the sanctions on Turkish assets would materialise slowly but steadily, with the lira vulnerable to more weakness.

“It is something that is still developing – there is a lot at stake. In this context, Turkey has more to lose from this situation than Russia has.”

Capital Economics said Turkish tourism would lose out but calculated the maximum losses to the economy at around 0.5% of annual gross domestic product.

The lira strengthened 0.4% against the dollar after briefly hitting the weakest level in a month early in the session. Turkish dollar-denominated bonds extended losses, however, with most trading lower for the sixth straight session.

China’s yuan jumped in offshore trade on suspected intervention by Beijing just hours before the International Monetary Fund’s decision that is expected to grant the currency global reserve status.

“(It) is almost a foregone conclusion, but there is still uncertainty about what weight it will be given,” wrote SEB’s Per Hammarlund. “A short term bounce in the CNY is possible, but the weakening trend will soon resume with China moving to ease monetary policy and the U.S. tightening.”

Other currencies painted a more mixed picture, with Russia’s rouble trading 0.1% weaker against the greenback while South Africa’s rand chalked up the same amount in gains, though both were on track to slip 4% on the month.