Does it matter to the world who the next President of the USA is?

While it is unlikely that any well-meaning President would have exercised such powers indiscriminately and without good reason, the overall global situation today of a world near chaos, and the instances of US involvement in numerous countries and in conflicts and their failure to exercise their powers to prevent conflict or at least to minimise them and take the leadership in finding solutions through discussion and negotiation, have left open the question on the effectiveness of the US President when it comes to world affairs

Paradox of Power: Militarily it is a unipolar world of U.S. hegemony; economically it is a multipolar world with U.S. leadership; but on many transnational issues – such as international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the migration of people, epidemic disease, drugs, and environmental degradation – we live in a world only a step or two short of chaos (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/american-power-the-world)

Undoubtedly, the USA wields immense power in the world, militarily, politically and economically. The executive powers assigned to the President of the USA are substantial although checks and balances are there to ensure, at least constitutionally, that such powers are exercised wisely and judiciously for the benefit of the people. 

The question though for the people of the world is whether the global power of the USA has been used wisely and productively for the greater prosperity of people globally, giving greater opportunities to usher in a better future for the current and future generations, whether there is peace in the world or more violence and discord, and displacement of millions of people from their lands, whether the environment has a sustainable future or whether it is on track to make the world inhabitable in the not too distant future. There are many more queries to be posed to the USA which claims to be the first in so many political, economic and military spheres.

Can the next President of the USA make even a dent towards addressing this disastrous situation that a majority of people in the world are facing today?

The answer in a way has been provided by the Wilson Centre as cited above, “on many transnational issues – such as international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the migration of people, epidemic disease, drugs, and environmental degradation – we live in a world only a step or two short of chaos.”

The Wilson Center goes on to mention the necessity of “American Leadership: America must lead” – So, in today’s world, the U.S. is simply too big and too important to sit on the sidelines. It must lead. It really cannot do otherwise. If the U.S. does not step forward, nothing happens. The Wilson Centre document, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/ article/american-power-the-world) although written in 2003, presents some options as to how the US should exercise its power for the benefit of its own citizens and for the benefit of the world. Readers could refer to this document and make their own judgements as to whether the US has been successful in chartering a trajectory as suggested in the document. 

However, considering the Wilson Center’s own contention that “we live in a world only a step or two short of chaos”, one could well ask whether the leader of the USA, its President, has led the country effectively and whether that person’s leadership has moved the world away from the chaos referred to by the Wilson Center. 

World already in chaos

Turmoil in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, in Ukraine, and the impotency of the US in not being able to bring the warring parties to a negotiating table, the unsettled conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, in Yemen, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, in various parts of South America, and Africa, and in the light of ongoing environment disasters throughout the world, it does lead one to think that the President of the USA has not been able to display the leadership qualities to lead the world away from the chaos, no longer potential, but ever present and ongoing. While it is not the only measure, the fact that the estimate of United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), that there are over 31.6 million refugees under its mandate, and another 6 million Palestinian refugees. In total, the number of people forcibly displaced is estimated to be over 117.3 million, which is the first time in recorded history that this has happened, and presents a picture of a world already in chaos.

One could argue that it is not fair to look only towards the US for this sad situation in the world. On the other hand, considering their own contention that they are in fact the major superpower of the world and the general acceptance by others that they in fact are, it does make it not just fair, but right, to ask this question of the US.

In the context of the Wilson Centre’s own statement that “we live in a world only a step or two short of chaos”, the following points mentioned by the Wilson Centre about American Power in the world is contradictory at best if one were to assess the situation in the world today using these points. 

Alternatively, one could form a view that a world at large being in a chaotic situation or only a few steps away from such a situation, without directly harming or impacting on the US, has in fact been the real objective of some within the USA as chaos leads to profit.

• It is the strongest military force the world has ever known. The U.S. defence budget is more than the next 15 nations spend combined. U.S. weapons technologies have opened a yawning gap between the American armed forces and other countries – precision guided missiles, supercarrier groups, overwhelming airpower, tremendous firepower, unmanned aircraft, military space dominance, and advanced satellite systems all allow enormous flexibility and awesome capability in military planning. We are projecting this power abroad as never before. We have military personnel in about 140 nations. The massive intervention in Iraq, basing in Afghanistan and Central Asia, and joint operations in countries like Colombia and the Philippines are just a part of our aggressive military posture in the wake of 9/11.

In total, the number of people forcibly displaced is estimated to be over 117.3 million, which is the first time in recorded history that this has happened, and presents a picture of a world already in chaos. One could argue that it is not fair to look only towards the US for this sad situation in the world. On the other hand, considering their own contention that they are in fact the major superpower of the world and the general acceptance by others that they in fact are, it does make it not just fair, but right, to ask this question of the US

• The American economy is as large as the next three – Japan, Germany and Britain – combined. With only 5% of the world’s population, the U.S. accounts for 43% of the world’s production, 40% of its technological production, and 50% of the world’s research and development. We also speak with the loudest voice in international monetary institutions like the WTO and IMF.
• Cultural: American power includes the exportation of American culture. People from all over the world come to American schools and universities. Increased media and technology have spread American popular culture and the English language around the world – teenagers now listen to American pop music in Iran, go to American movies in China, drink Coca-Cola in Indonesia, and study the English language in Egypt.
• Soft power: American power includes “soft power”. Likewise, our soft power – our capacity to get others to want what we want, without coercing them, because they admire our achievements and want to emulate us – is unparalleled. This is the power of example and of persuasion. People admire American prosperity, freedom and technology. We have ascended to our position of pre-eminence in part because nations do trust us to work for the values of democracy, the rule of law, market-economics, and human rights. These values are the moral cornerstones of American power; and they are widely admired and sought after, even by people who disagree with American policies.
• Necessity of American leadership: America must lead. So, in today’s world, the U.S. is simply too big and too important to sit on the sidelines. It must lead. It really cannot do otherwise. If the U.S. does not step forward, nothing happens. There is consensus in this nation that the U.S. should use its power vigorously to reshape the world.

Opportunities for profit 

While the turmoil and chaos in the world has been progressively increasing, the US and its prosperity has not been directly affected judging by its ongoing supremacy in military and economic power, giving rise to possible justification of the real interests of some within the USA who possibly are the real power centres in the US who in fact create the ground work for ensuing chaos, which in turn provides opportunities for profit. This gives rise to the question whether it matters to the world as to who become the President of the USA on the 4th of November.

While the noble ideals of the US constitution “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America” are still valid as they were in 1787, the political and economic state of affairs of people within the US itself and in the wider world, begs the question whether US Presidents in general have been able to deliver on these ideals. 

At times, the powers vested in the President and the checks and balances related to exercise of such powers, particularly on socio economic policies, has made Presidents look like Emperors without clothes. There have been occasions where such checks and balances have been exercised in political partisan ways and not necessarily in the national interest. The difference however is the substantial, unchallenged executive authority given to the President when it comes to defence and foreign policy.

While it is unlikely that any well-meaning President would have exercised such powers indiscriminately and without good reason, the overall global situation today of a world near chaos, and the instances of US involvement in numerous countries and in conflicts and their failure to exercise their powers to prevent conflict or at least to minimise them and take the leadership in finding solutions through discussion and negotiation, have left open the question on the effectiveness of the US President when it comes to world affairs. 

It also raises the question whether the President, with the executive powers assigned to the office of President, is effectively a rubber stamp that endorses real policy decisions taken by a behind the scenes establishment that creates and thrives on chaos in the world while leaving the US itself as the mighty superpower. 

There is not a lot that countries, especially the less affluent could do to address these situations. The political, economic and military power of the US and the Western world is so immense, and there is no other effective alternative to that power. Although China is touted as the alternative, it is in effect not, although it is stronger economically and militarily today than it was 10 years ago. However, it is dependent on the Western world for its economic growth and prosperity as the consumer base for what is produced in China is in the Western world. So, countries have to forge their political and economic policies and priorities within these overarching realities while pursuing historical and cultural sensitivities in their own countries. In the technologically and avarice driven world today, there are no bounds and there is no room for socialistic policies.

At times, the powers vested in the President and the checks and balances related to exercise of such powers, particularly on socio economic policies, has made Presidents look like Emperors without clothes. There have been occasions where such checks and balances have been exercised in political partisan ways and not necessarily in the national interest. The difference however is the substantial, unchallenged executive authority given to the President when it comes to defence and foreign policy

The World Bank says that (https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview#:~:text =Global%20poverty%20reduction%20has%20slowed,relevant%20for%20low%2Dincome%20countries) 8.5% of the global population – almost 700 million people – live today on less than $ 2.15 per day, the extreme poverty line relevant for low-income countries. Three-quarters of all people in extreme poverty live in Sub-Saharan Africa or in fragile and conflict-affected countries. 44% of the global population – around 3.5 billion people – live today on less than $6.85 per day, the poverty line relevant for upper-middle-income countries. The total number of people living under this poverty line has barely changed since 1990 due to population growth.

Around one-fifth of the world’s population lives in economies with high inequality, concentrated mostly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Only 7% of the global population lives in countries with low inequality.

Climate change poses a fundamental risk to poverty and inequality reduction. Nearly 1 in 5 people globally are likely to experience a severe weather shock in their lifetime from which they will struggle to recover. Climate change also threatens to increase global inequality, as poorer countries and people are likely to suffer more from the negative consequences.

Looking at some statistics in the USA itself on poverty rates and other social data, Debt.org, America’s Debt Help Organization, says that “according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 Current Population Report, 37.9 million Americans (11.9% of the population) are considered impoverished. The census supplemental poverty rate, which adjusts for how government programs keep people out of poverty, was at 12.4% in 2022.

Among the most impoverished are:

• Those living in female-headed households with no husband present (23%).
• Young adults without a high school diploma (25.2%).
• Those living in a family whose head of household is unemployed (30%).
• Minorities (19.5% for Black people).

In 2023, the World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/homeless-population-by-state) stated that the homeless rate in the United States increased by 12%, from 1.75 to 1.96 per 1,000 people. This was the sixth year in a row that homelessness levels increased. The total number of people experiencing homelessness in 2023 was more than 653,000.

All of above is in the richest country in the world that has (as of September 2024), 801 billionaires, with a combined wealth of $ 6.22 trillion (https://inequality.org/great-divide/billionaire-wealth-keeps-growing/#:~:text=September%2017%2C%202024&text=There%20are%20now%20801%20billionaires,Forbes%20Real%20Time%20Billionaire%20List).

Can the next President of the USA make even a dent towards addressing this disastrous situation that a majority of people in the world are facing today, and also what their own people are experiencing?